PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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BUY

Like most resource stocks, it has been going down for the better part of a year. However, global fertilizer demand still remains strong. This is an opportunity.

DON'T BUY

Buying options. $55 strike in January and $60 in March? He is not a big believer in buying options. He only sells because when you buy the probability of making money is quite low. (But if you do, you’ll make a lot of money.) If you sell, you’ll always make money but you'll never make a fortune.

BUY

Got stopped out of this but is a lot of interest to him right now. You definitely want to be holding this based on the boom in agriculture and the pricing.

DON'T BUY

Fantastic company with good management and good products. The problem is that potash is an ingredient that you can skip 3 years compared to other fertilizers and nutrients. During financial difficulties, farmers will skip potash.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 18/10. Down 9.3%.) Had a 3 for 1 stock split. Long-term trend with agriculture is upwards. Still likes.

COMMENT

Really likes the commodity agricultural story. This is a great way to play it. You have to be prepared for volatility over the next little while. Nothing wrong with it as a long-term holding.

STRONG BUY

From the last earnings report, they are doing everything right. They've expanded their mines, the price for potash is increasing, inventories are decreasing and everybody has to eat. Very cheap.

BUY

Continues to remain positive on this for the longer-term. Pretty good net margins, which continue to grow. Short-term, BHP Billiton (BHP-N) is talking about 16.5 million tons of capacity that they want to bring on, is affecting the stock negatively.

BUY

Many people think there is a lot of upside in this name. It's one of the critical nutrients and we have missed a cycle or 2 of application. Likes the fundamentals for the agricultural names.

COMMENT

If you are a long-term focused investor and are looking for long-term investments, this is a great one. Will be a good blue-chip hold.

BUY

Fell on hard times during 2008. Has come back a little, but not that much. Demand for fertilizer globally right now is a little slack. World’s grain supply and demand is pretty much in balance meaning that all it takes is a natural disaster to cause an imbalance.

WEAK BUY

If you want to play the overall fertilizer space this will be a good compliment to Atrium but get Atrium first.

DON'T BUY

Just bought on the NYSE (US$50.70). Was this a good idea? In the short term, you want to have US$’s. Given the weakness in the global economy, the Cdn$ is probably vulnerable. Food prices globally have been moderating. Food prices are always a good leading indicator of potential potash sales.

WAIT

Great company, incredibly well positioned. Shares have bounced back a little bit. Wait a bit. Long term it is a good growth story. It is not cheap enough yet. Subsidies for ethanol are going away, requires corn, so crops will be replaced by something else.

COMMENT

NDP is promising to raise government royalties if they are elected in Saskatchewan on Nov 17. Stock has taken a hit. Need for food is bound to increase globally. There are other ways to the agriculture and the stock is you more volatility.

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)