PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 13/11. Down 17.18%.) The potash market has actually done pretty well but is in a bit of a recovery now. Short-term challenge is that India is hesitating in signing contracts. Because of this, this company is cutting back production rebalance the market. Expect that in the spring planting season, demand will pick up.

COMMENT

Likes this. Have extended the shutdown on a couple of their mines. For the long-term, you want stocks that are going to provide products to the growing markets of Asia. There has been a build-up of inventories in potash and phosphates which has caused the price to be weak. If you are a long-term believer, you could buy it. (See Top Picks.)

BUY ON WEAKNESS

(Market Call Minute.) Negative on the commodity for the short term. Buy on pullbacks.

BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Continues to deliver in terms of profits and production. Obviously it depends on what the weather looks like in North America this year.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Seasonality is over for this one right now but if you can get it at a few dollars less than where it is right now it has a pretty good long-term growth trend.

BUY

As a long-term holding it is good but in the next two quarters, the company will struggle a little bit on pricing. But even on a more conservative pricing, he still sees good upside potential.

DON'T BUY

You are dealing with one commodity and betting on the demand of that one commodity. As economy picks up the ag space should also pick up. It will look attractive around these levels. He prefers more diversified investments in this space.

COMMENT

Yield is not exciting. Good company, but the fertilizer market is volatile. These growth stocks have to really be bought and sold.

BUY

On this one you look for growth in earnings as the demand for potash increases. This is a great company. Solid long-term story in terms of feeding the world.

TOP PICK

This has the world's lowest cost resources and a lot of “brown field” potential. They are bringing that “brown field” potential forward very quickly and spending tons of money. Just doubled their dividend. The stock will flow tons of cash once they’re finished the development of this “brown field” capacity.

WEAK BUY

AGU is cheaper. The problem they have both been having is that there is excess inventory of potash and hurting the price. India and China are resisting the higher price but longer term he would recommend it.

COMMENT

Has been hurt the last few months. People are worried about rising inventories and there has been some pushback on price increases. There is a lot of negativity in the sector right now. At the end of the day, this is a great company with terrific reserves. Valuation of 10X earnings is the cheapest it has been for a very long time.

COMMENT

Have been mothballing some production and farmers have been holding off on buying. However farmers cannot not fertilize fields. Expect to see a fall off in profitability in the short term, but longer term (18 months to 2 years) it will grow very nicely.

BUY

You can buy it here – an interesting opportunity. Some concerns near term about what the planning season will be like. Farmers are doing well and will fertilize. You have a rising world wide middle class so increasing demand on fertilizer.

COMMENT

A good company. Dividend is not attractive and not going up fast enough for him. Longer term the Ag story works. He doesn’t own any at this point because none yield a big enough dividend or grow it enough.

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)