PotashCorp (POT.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)

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COMMENT

A cyclical stock. The world's leader in potash. If th sector goes up strongly, it should help the stock.

WEAK BUY

The trade is flat right now. Unless there is another catalyst like a takeout offer, it will be flat until December. But it is a good stock to hold for 3 years.

TOP PICK

A very strong trend for Potash at this time of the year. We are moving into the strong part of the trend. Pick exit spots perhaps in January. He is looking to get back into POT.

BUY

Likes it. Potash fundamentals keep getting better from a supply/demand perspective.

DON'T BUY

One of those companies that a lot of people care about. People have been looking to make some money back. Seasonally we are headed into a period that is tougher for agri. People will all decide to jump back on the things that worked in the last rally. He would like to reduce exposure to resources over the next 2 months.

BUY

Likes agriculture but his preference is Agrium (AGU-T). Feels that potash will be in short supply for a long time. Feels that fertilizer should be in everybody's portfolio. Because of the poor yield, his weighting is only 2%.

TOP PICK

Likes long-duration assets and this one has 200+ years of supplies. Below $50 is an excellent entry point. With this you have $10 per share of other companies. Expecting they will earn $4 this year and $4.50 next year. There is no new supply coming on stream until about 2013.

BUY

Likes agri space long term. One of the most highly levered agri plays. Continue to hold it. Not too bad as an entry point right here.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 4/10. Up 31.59%.)

COMMENT

He was praying for $38 but it is doing well today. Great buy level at $38. His model price is $54.58 a 17%-18% upside.

COMMENT

Outlook for potash probably hasn't changed dramatically. Ultimately, the agricultural story has not completely disappeared. Feels the stock has been over punished relative to the commodity.

DON'T BUY

This stock is now in a very critical situation. If it breaks down below $45, he will probably sell his holdings because of its lower highs.

PARTIAL BUY

Fundamentally positive on the demographics for agriculture. This is one that you could trim and add to in periods of volatility. Should be a core holding if you believe in the longer term trend in potash use.

COMMENT

Chart shows it was holding quite well at around $52 and just recently had a drop. He tends to think this is a false move. Feels it is in an uptrend.

BUY

Demand for potash is not going anywhere but up. Not an easy thing to put another potash mine into production. Excellent long-term prospect for the conservative portfolio.

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PotashCorp (POT.TO)