Stock Opinions by Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI - Stockchase Experts
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Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI @

On Stockchase since : Jun 2009

Director & Portfolio Manager at Scotia Wealth Management

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Stock Opinions by Mike S. Newton, CIM FCSI - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 28, 2019

Market Outlook - He is finding much more pessimism in his clients meetings. Many people asking: is a recession coming? Pessimism is pronounced. Pessimism is intellectually seductive. There is an asymmetry in gain vs losses. That is why he uses stop-losses where possible. Diversification is a big tool and so a balance between aggressive / defensive. We just had a 20% correction. It wasn't as bad as 2009 but close to 2011. You have to take advantage of those situations. He would argue that in his years of career most money has been lost on opportunity costs or being too defensive preparing for a corrections than in the actual correction. The Market is a big world. Unless you are completed committed to a monthly contribution for 20 years then he is not for passive investments. The inverted Yield Curve is a little misleading and a recession could come after 8 months to 3 years after the inversion. Also some people are picking the points in the curve. Also some people are fitting this event to their negative narrative as there has been cases where no recession came after an inversion.
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Market Outlook - He is finding much more pessimism in his clients meetings. Many people asking: is a recession coming? Pessimism is pronounced. Pessimism is intellectually seductive. There is an asymmetry in gain vs losses. That is why he uses stop-losses where possible. Diversification is a big tool and so a balance between aggressive / defensive. We just had a 20% correction. It wasn't as bad as 2009 but close to 2011. You have to take advantage of those situations. He would argue that in his years of career most money has been lost on opportunity costs or being too defensive preparing for a corrections than in the actual correction. The Market is a big world. Unless you are completed committed to a monthly contribution for 20 years then he is not for passive investments. The inverted Yield Curve is a little misleading and a recession could come after 8 months to 3 years after the inversion. Also some people are picking the points in the curve. Also some people are fitting this event to their negative narrative as there has been cases where no recession came after an inversion.
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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WATCH
FedEx(FDX-N) 

March 28, 2019

Sold it in last September. He feels a little naked without it. But it hasn't recovered as much as the rest of the market. First time in over 3 years that they miss top line and bottom line estimates. There has been some problems with the integration with their dutch-based company. The general thesis for the business is still intact. He would like to own again.
Transportation
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Sold it in last September. He feels a little naked without it. But it hasn't recovered as much as the rest of the market. First time in over 3 years that they miss top line and bottom line estimates. There has been some problems with the integration with their dutch-based company. The general thesis for the business is still intact. He would like to own again.
Transportation
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$177.900
Owned Owned
No

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WAIT
Goldman Sachs(GS-N) 

March 28, 2019

Financials is a big scratching head at the moment. This particular bank is not faced with the pressures of the retail banking in general. Used to be an investment bank leveraged 30 to 1. Everything that it used to do to eke out high torque on their profitability seems to be muted a little bit and without the leverage that they used to have. He has been bullish in financials prematurely. Trading below book value. Jury is out on this one.
investment companies/funds
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Financials is a big scratching head at the moment. This particular bank is not faced with the pressures of the retail banking in general. Used to be an investment bank leveraged 30 to 1. Everything that it used to do to eke out high torque on their profitability seems to be muted a little bit and without the leverage that they used to have. He has been bullish in financials prematurely. Trading below book value. Jury is out on this one.
investment companies/funds
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$191.180
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Amazon.com(AMZN-Q) 

March 28, 2019

Still below its highs. When it broke out it was the time to buy. He think it is a phenomenal company. The speed at which they move nobody understands. Higher on the risk spectrum.
specialty stores
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Still below its highs. When it broke out it was the time to buy. He think it is a phenomenal company. The speed at which they move nobody understands. Higher on the risk spectrum.
specialty stores
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$1773.420
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Just bought it in January. He would still adding for the yield predominantly.
REAL ESTATE
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Just bought it in January. He would still adding for the yield predominantly.
REAL ESTATE
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$27.800
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Strong dividend. It owns life insurance companies as well. He is kind of disappointed on them. not as warm on this one. He would go straight to the banks.
investment companies/funds
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Strong dividend. It owns life insurance companies as well. He is kind of disappointed on them. not as warm on this one. He would go straight to the banks.
investment companies/funds
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Canadian banks in general are strongly managed from a risk perspective. They are not a black box. People around the world look at headlines. Financials is 25-30% financials. He is only 5% weighted on Canadian banks. Not because he is negative on them just he likes better other areas of the market better. Just don't be overweight banks.
banks
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Canadian banks in general are strongly managed from a risk perspective. They are not a black box. People around the world look at headlines. Financials is 25-30% financials. He is only 5% weighted on Canadian banks. Not because he is negative on them just he likes better other areas of the market better. Just don't be overweight banks.
banks
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$107.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

March 28, 2019

You are not getting hurt, you are not going to do great. You are going to get your dividend and a slow grind upwards.
banks
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You are not getting hurt, you are not going to do great. You are going to get your dividend and a slow grind upwards.
banks
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$73.050
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 05/18, Up 19%) They target the data center like Cisco. He got stopped out in the downdraft in September. He made quite some money with it in the last couple of years. Goldman Sachs just recently added them to the conviction buy list saying that they are growing at a much faster rate than any of their competitors.
Technology
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(A Top Pick Apr 05/18, Up 19%) They target the data center like Cisco. He got stopped out in the downdraft in September. He made quite some money with it in the last couple of years. Goldman Sachs just recently added them to the conviction buy list saying that they are growing at a much faster rate than any of their competitors.
Technology
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$312.300
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Apr 05/18, Down 16%) This was an aggressive move. This is like 40% Kuwait and 20% Argentina. He was stopped out. He thinks there is incredible growth on the name. For those with the risk appetite, this is where the ball is going. You have to buckle up though.
E.T.F.'s
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(A Top Pick Apr 05/18, Down 16%) This was an aggressive move. This is like 40% Kuwait and 20% Argentina. He was stopped out. He thinks there is incredible growth on the name. For those with the risk appetite, this is where the ball is going. You have to buckle up though.
E.T.F.'s
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$28.370
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Smart REIT(SRU.UN-T) 

March 28, 2019

(A Top Pick Apr 05/18, Up 25%) An example of a name in retail. Around 60% Ontario and the rest around the country. Now growth might be muted. He would still buy it for the yield.
investment companies/funds
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(A Top Pick Apr 05/18, Up 25%) An example of a name in retail. Around 60% Ontario and the rest around the country. Now growth might be muted. He would still buy it for the yield.
investment companies/funds
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$34.960
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Every once in a while it present very good buying opportunities. He prefers Telus Corp (T-T).
Cable
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Every once in a while it present very good buying opportunities. He prefers Telus Corp (T-T).
Cable
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$72.050
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Facebook(FB-Q) 

March 28, 2019

The real growth story for them is Instagram and WhatsApp. There are privacy concerns but he thinks it will come on the other side of this looking even better.
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The real growth story for them is Instagram and WhatsApp. There are privacy concerns but he thinks it will come on the other side of this looking even better.
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$165.550
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
He got stopped out around October. He would like to come back to. It is like buying Amazon 15 years ago. He would be careful with the allocation and not be overly exposed to it, but certainly would want to be part of it.
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He got stopped out around October. He would like to come back to. It is like buying Amazon 15 years ago. He would be careful with the allocation and not be overly exposed to it, but certainly would want to be part of it.
0
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$177.730
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Shopify Inc.(SHOP-T) 

March 28, 2019

It got just added to the TSX 60 index. A few short stories on it but still continue to rise despite the negativity.
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It got just added to the TSX 60 index. A few short stories on it but still continue to rise despite the negativity.
0
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Mike S. Newton,

Director &, Scotia Wealth Manage...

Price Price
$273.540
Owned Owned
Yes

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