John O'Connell, CFA

Most people are discounting that energy prices a year out will be significantly lower than spot prices today. No major interest rate changes today, no major shifts in currency. Gold has reacted to some extent, and bitcoin as well.

Most people are looking at the results and saying that the US has tremendous superiority in the air, and they don't want to go on the ground. Whether they can effect regime change or not is unknown. 

Constructive to note that, even with energy prices up 6% today, that's lower than they were last June with the first attack. Markets tend to adjust to geopolitical situations pretty quickly.

Most people think that this is likely a pretty short occurrence, and things should return to normal.

Most people think that the war in Iran will be relatively short, and let's hope it is.

Bank stocks were down 6% last week, and private credit stocks are down 30-50%. They've been trying to sell these specialty funds to the individual investor network, thinking that buyers don't care about liquidity. There was a lot of lending going on, especially when interest rates were significantly lower than they are today. 

The question is:  Have people lent money to solvent businesses? Will they be able to pay those loans back? When investors do need liquidity, there are no easy buyers for these assets.

Seeing an AI temper tantrum. People are worried about mass job losses. They're worried that job losses will cause the economy to tank. Hysteria that software is going to go away, when there's going to be even more software with more software engineers needed to write code, manage it, and integrate it into people's lives. 

But we're seeing the exact opposite. Increased number of software engineers. Very robust economy, corporate profits, and employment statistics right across America. Lower interest rates, despite the spike from energy prices (which aren't expected to last a long time).

A great deal of value has been created in markets because of panic.

Huge global investment organization. Not cheap, but in a good position to put $$ to work in this period of disruption. World-class at making investment decisions. Be aware of concerns about AI and credit, as BN has exposure. 

Keep an eye on it. Brookfield can be opaque, we're in a time of volatility, and you know what happens when investors get nervous.

Note:  Owned by his colleague, Christine Poole.

Well done, usually good to take advantage of short-term panics. 

This name has turned the corner. Good dividend yield. Higher rates let it get better returns on its bond portfolio. Good job growing its business. Reasonable valuation. Less exposed to worries of credit quality. Good long-term investment.

He'd probably pick Citi. Slimming down its foreign operations. CEO doing good job with the turnaround. Very reasonable valuations, close to book value.

SAN is a good bank and well managed. Lots of exposure to Latin/South America and to Europe. The one to pick if you were really intent on international exposure. More volatile, as the economies it's in tend to be more cyclical.

He'd probably pick Citi. Slimming down its foreign operations. CEO doing good job with the turnaround. Very reasonable valuations, close to book value.

SAN is a good bank and well-managed. Lots of exposure to Latin/South America and to Europe. The one to pick if you were really intent on international exposure. More volatile, as the economies it's in tend to be more cyclical.

There's lots of talk on the loss of American exceptionalism, and he thinks a lot of that is by people who are angry at America. Those comments are less about businesses and the entrepreneurial spirit. Still seeing pretty dynamic operations in the US.

There's lots of talk on the loss of American exceptionalism, and he thinks a lot of that is by people who are angry at America. Those comments are less about businesses and the entrepreneurial spirit. Still seeing pretty dynamic operations in the US.

Revenues for the S&P 500 are about 6% international. He's been in this business for over 40 years, and people are always saying to go international. That might be the investment community just wanting you to do something, since they make a living when you do transactions.

He's somewhat skeptical. Europe is heavily regulated, and America is deregulating. Banks in the States are very well capitalized. You don't necessarily need to go international because someone's telling you to. There have been a lot of false starts.

They've all had a good bounce, including now. He said today that it might be a good opportunity to take profits in both gold and oil, because this is probably the peak of uncertainty in supply.

He said today that it might be a good opportunity to take profits in both gold and oil, because this is probably the peak of uncertainty in supply.

You need oil prices at $75-80 over the long term for energy companies to make significant profits. A very difficult business, expensive, not getting any easier. Global oil market is somewhat over-supplied and, despite today's surge, prices won't be high for an extended period.

It's complicated. Canadian bank stocks are pretty rich compared to US, trading at higher multiples to book value. Yes, paid the financial penalty, but still paying in terms of ability to grow in the US (and those problems will persist a while).

Remember how WFC was in purgatory for a long time, and this is a Canadian bank. Could be caught up in CUSMA negotiations. If you need a Canadian bank, look at BNS or RY.

One to look at if you're looking for a Canadian bank. Cleaned up its act in South America.

Always the gold standard if you're looking for a Canadian bank.

Disclosure:  His old employer.

Master-class operation. Disciplined management -- acquisitions are only made when make economic sense for the long haul. Concentrated in oil sands. Massive nat gas reserves. Well positioned if Canada continues to walk the talk about international markets.

The right one to have, but realize that O&G is highly cyclical. We're probably at peak uncertainty. Use the opportunity to find areas that have been beaten up, or perhaps some international exposure. See his Top Picks.

Great operator. Might need to raise some equity fairly soon, as its recent acquisition will need to be financed. Recent downgrades. Good dividend yield. Good for a long-term investment.

Note:  Owned by his colleague, Christine Poole.