Stock Opinions by John O'Connell, CFA - Stockchase Experts
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John O'Connell, CFA @

On Stockchase since : Aug 2006

Chairman and CEO at Davis Rea

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Stock Opinions by John O'Connell, CFA - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 13, 2018

Market Outlook - It has been a long term trend running deficits since the Financial Crisis. Populist programs, like the one Mr Ford is trying to do, make rating agencies nervous. It doesn't seem to be a problem now but it could be one down the road (5 - 10 years) if interest rates move up and interest costs eat up a larger part of the budget. The market is creating a lot of opportunities. Interest rates have been moving lower since the return of volatility. The economy is robust. Income levels continue to grow. Trade tensions are backing off a little bit. Underneath the surface, there are very good companies growing rapidly and trading at reasonable multiples. Like Google is down 20% from its highs trading at 18 times earnings. You don't even need to try to guess where the bottom is. There is value out there and if you have a relativity long term horizon (say 5 years) you can make nice profits.
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Market Outlook - It has been a long term trend running deficits since the Financial Crisis. Populist programs, like the one Mr Ford is trying to do, make rating agencies nervous. It doesn't seem to be a problem now but it could be one down the road (5 - 10 years) if interest rates move up and interest costs eat up a larger part of the budget. The market is creating a lot of opportunities. Interest rates have been moving lower since the return of volatility. The economy is robust. Income levels continue to grow. Trade tensions are backing off a little bit. Underneath the surface, there are very good companies growing rapidly and trading at reasonable multiples. Like Google is down 20% from its highs trading at 18 times earnings. You don't even need to try to guess where the bottom is. There is value out there and if you have a relativity long term horizon (say 5 years) you can make nice profits.
Unknown
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Twitter, Inc(TWTR-N) 

December 13, 2018

Its growth has stalled out. A great aggregator for news information. Not an investable stock that he would look at. He tends to prefer more value oriented. The social media space is one area you need to be cautious because of regulation and privacy issues. There is always the potential for new entrants.
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Its growth has stalled out. A great aggregator for news information. Not an investable stock that he would look at. He tends to prefer more value oriented. The social media space is one area you need to be cautious because of regulation and privacy issues. There is always the potential for new entrants.
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$35.890
Owned Owned
No

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WATCH
Frustrated by it. Still owns it. When they bought it they thought that they had a solid business case. They just hired a new CEO. The Member of the Board continue to sell stocks and that is not a good sign but the profits and financials are very strong. He thinks there are going to be joint ventures in the US and internationally. They reported real revenue growth. The company needs to make changes at the Board level.
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Frustrated by it. Still owns it. When they bought it they thought that they had a solid business case. They just hired a new CEO. The Member of the Board continue to sell stocks and that is not a good sign but the profits and financials are very strong. He thinks there are going to be joint ventures in the US and internationally. They reported real revenue growth. The company needs to make changes at the Board level.
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$7.400
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Facebook(FB-Q) 

December 13, 2018

Owned it for a long time. Sold it two months ago. Scandals were mischaracterized. very profitable in the near future. Major concern is international government regulation. It is the only company that it is not investing in other verticals. All the other large tech companies are investing in Health Care which is a massive opportunity. This company is just trying to create advertising mouse traps.
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Owned it for a long time. Sold it two months ago. Scandals were mischaracterized. very profitable in the near future. Major concern is international government regulation. It is the only company that it is not investing in other verticals. All the other large tech companies are investing in Health Care which is a massive opportunity. This company is just trying to create advertising mouse traps.
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$145.010
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

December 13, 2018

It has a bright future. The i-phone is not going to look the same in 10 years time. We will have a chip embedded in our heads and neuro-technology is developing rapidly. It is really happening. this company is investing massively in Health Care. People don't mind sharing their data if they get value out for it. Trading at a reasonable valuation. One of the most innovative companies out there. Strong balance sheet. They are transitioning to a service company.
electrical/electronic
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It has a bright future. The i-phone is not going to look the same in 10 years time. We will have a chip embedded in our heads and neuro-technology is developing rapidly. It is really happening. this company is investing massively in Health Care. People don't mind sharing their data if they get value out for it. Trading at a reasonable valuation. One of the most innovative companies out there. Strong balance sheet. They are transitioning to a service company.
electrical/electronic
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$170.950
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Microsoft(MSFT-Q) 

December 13, 2018

They did a great job at turning the company around. The software business is ultimately their Achilles Heel. They haven't been able to execute in a meaningful way their hardware business. He would hedge his bets with other tech companies.
computer software/processing
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They did a great job at turning the company around. The software business is ultimately their Achilles Heel. They haven't been able to execute in a meaningful way their hardware business. He would hedge his bets with other tech companies.
computer software/processing
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$109.450
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 13, 2018

What sector would you select to invest money now? - Financial in the US is in a bear market. People are worrying about yield curves and all that non-sense. If you have 5 years view, being paid 3plus % yield with a growth above market rates and a strong balance sheet and diversified platforms. Quality businesses that are on sale and trading at reasonable valuations. You can expect to make 10%/year over the next 5 years.
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What sector would you select to invest money now? - Financial in the US is in a bear market. People are worrying about yield curves and all that non-sense. If you have 5 years view, being paid 3plus % yield with a growth above market rates and a strong balance sheet and diversified platforms. Quality businesses that are on sale and trading at reasonable valuations. You can expect to make 10%/year over the next 5 years.
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Accenture Ltd.(ACN-N) 

December 13, 2018

(A Top Pick Jul 25/18, Up 28%) Still owns it as they buy things for the long term. A consulting company. A soft play on tech growth. They are hired by everybody to implement technology. Funny stock because every time they announced earnings, even as they are good and beat expectations, the stock falls by 5-6%. Buy it after earnings.
other services
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(A Top Pick Jul 25/18, Up 28%) Still owns it as they buy things for the long term. A consulting company. A soft play on tech growth. They are hired by everybody to implement technology. Funny stock because every time they announced earnings, even as they are good and beat expectations, the stock falls by 5-6%. Buy it after earnings.
other services
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$160.250
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Wells Fargo(WFC-N) 

December 13, 2018

(A Top Pick Jul 24/18, Down 11%) Just added some today. It had performed better than other banks in the US until just recently. A great opportunity to pick up the stock. They are working on their issues. Yield is 3.5% and it is trading at 12 times earnings. Their hands are tied behind their back but he thinks that is going to end in the second half of 2019 and they are showing good growth and profitability. You can't go wrong.
investment companies/funds
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(A Top Pick Jul 24/18, Down 11%) Just added some today. It had performed better than other banks in the US until just recently. A great opportunity to pick up the stock. They are working on their issues. Yield is 3.5% and it is trading at 12 times earnings. Their hands are tied behind their back but he thinks that is going to end in the second half of 2019 and they are showing good growth and profitability. You can't go wrong.
investment companies/funds
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$47.030
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Goldman Sachs(GS-N) 

December 13, 2018

(A Top Pick Jul 24/18, Down 19%) Great company. Exceptionally profitable. Trading at 7 and 1/2 normalized earnings. Once they get over the big scandal. That will cost them $2 billion and they made $13 billion last year in profits. The best company in taking advantage of dysfunctional markets in the world. Global leader in investment banking. Pristine balance sheet. Good value. Just added to his position.
investment companies/funds
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(A Top Pick Jul 24/18, Down 19%) Great company. Exceptionally profitable. Trading at 7 and 1/2 normalized earnings. Once they get over the big scandal. That will cost them $2 billion and they made $13 billion last year in profits. The best company in taking advantage of dysfunctional markets in the world. Global leader in investment banking. Pristine balance sheet. Good value. Just added to his position.
investment companies/funds
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$175.920
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 13, 2018

Opinion on Canadian Banks - They own Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) which just bought recently. Canadians are heavily exposed to financials and real estate. Canadian Banks have to find new avenues for growth as they just can't keep lending to Canadians that are one of the most indebted people in the world more and more money.
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Opinion on Canadian Banks - They own Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS-T) which just bought recently. Canadians are heavily exposed to financials and real estate. Canadian Banks have to find new avenues for growth as they just can't keep lending to Canadians that are one of the most indebted people in the world more and more money.
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

December 13, 2018

Do you believe we are entering into a bear market ? - The S&P 500 is not down 20% so it is not technically in bear market territory. But who cares? In certain areas we are. But profits are going up, interest rates are low, the economy is strong, employment is strong and stocks are trading at 14-15 times earnings. That is not unreasonable. Don't seem to see any sign of a recession in the next 6-9 months. Could it go lower? Sure, we could have a flash crash. He invests in good companies for the long haul. he doesn't have a clue what is going to happen in the next three months but you can buy some stocks and make a decent return with a five year time horizon.
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Do you believe we are entering into a bear market ? - The S&P 500 is not down 20% so it is not technically in bear market territory. But who cares? In certain areas we are. But profits are going up, interest rates are low, the economy is strong, employment is strong and stocks are trading at 14-15 times earnings. That is not unreasonable. Don't seem to see any sign of a recession in the next 6-9 months. Could it go lower? Sure, we could have a flash crash. He invests in good companies for the long haul. he doesn't have a clue what is going to happen in the next three months but you can buy some stocks and make a decent return with a five year time horizon.
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Altagas Ltd(ALA-T) 

December 13, 2018

Was the decision to cut the dividend a dumb move? That was necessary. Management is like a gang that can't shoot straight. They destroyed this business by making an acquisition in the US. Very disappointed investment. They sold it at around $20. They are trading utilities companies like day trading. Only investment bankers are making money off this company in the last 5 years.
oil/gas
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Was the decision to cut the dividend a dumb move? That was necessary. Management is like a gang that can't shoot straight. They destroyed this business by making an acquisition in the US. Very disappointed investment. They sold it at around $20. They are trading utilities companies like day trading. Only investment bankers are making money off this company in the last 5 years.
oil/gas
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$15.050
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

December 13, 2018

A company that is an investment banker's Christmas present everyday. They pursued a growth story and sold off assets to finance that growth. A lousy performer. They have destroyed value by boosting dividend. Maybe they turn the whole thing around. Other than financial engineering there is no reason to own this company. Lousy balance sheet. They have grown so much and portfolio managers own so much of it, they need to find new investors and he doesn't think they will find new investors.

oil/gas pipelines
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A company that is an investment banker's Christmas present everyday. They pursued a growth story and sold off assets to finance that growth. A lousy performer. They have destroyed value by boosting dividend. Maybe they turn the whole thing around. Other than financial engineering there is no reason to own this company. Lousy balance sheet. They have grown so much and portfolio managers own so much of it, they need to find new investors and he doesn't think they will find new investors.

oil/gas pipelines
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$43.110
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Canadian Natural Rsrcs(CNQ-T) 

December 13, 2018

One of the best operators in Canada. As long as the price of crude is above $60 is going to be fine. Canada has a severe problem. We are not a country, we are a bunch of people with different interests. We can't build things. The energy business is a tough business. A quality company. Generates huge free cash flow. He prefers Cenovus Energy (CVE-T) that has more leverage and as it has a cheaper valuation. It could be a potential target for CNQ to buy at about a 30% premium.
oil/gas
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One of the best operators in Canada. As long as the price of crude is above $60 is going to be fine. Canada has a severe problem. We are not a country, we are a bunch of people with different interests. We can't build things. The energy business is a tough business. A quality company. Generates huge free cash flow. He prefers Cenovus Energy (CVE-T) that has more leverage and as it has a cheaper valuation. It could be a potential target for CNQ to buy at about a 30% premium.
oil/gas
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John O'Connell,

Chairman a, Davis Rea...

Price Price
$35.300
Owned Owned
Unknown

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