Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO)

107.95

-2.58 (2.33%)

as of Sep 18, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

778 watching

BUY

The chart shows a long, steady march down since early 2019. China will be a big influence (their commodity demand). NTR is hitting a bottom last seen in 2018, so you can start a position here, then add above $60. The risk/reward is good.

DON'T BUY

It has performed very poorly. They underperformed recently but gave some strong guidance for this year. This is not the seasonal time for AG stocks. We broke down below a 2018 low. They are saying famers HAVE to apply fertilizer but he is not sold on that theory. There is nothing technically to say this is a place to buy it. It is still a downward trend.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It's a long-term agricultural play for him. It's now a buying opportunity. It'll hit $60 at some point. It pays a dividend of 4%. Take advantage during volatility like now. It's gone down now because of the coronavirus. Also, some investors are tired of the volatility and have stayed away.

DON'T BUY

He stays away from commodity producers and capital intense companies. They don't have control over the demand for potash and it probably won't go anywhere. They own agricultural business and potash. He would not buy here. Nothing wrong with the company but he is not interested in the business model.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Feb 13/19, Down 18%) Trade issues were a negative last year. Contract from China will be delayed due to coronavirus. Generating lots of free cash. Waiting for earnings next week. Longer-term play on emerging markets.

COMMENT

A cyclical stock hit by the coronavirus virus (less Chinese demand). This'll do well if agriculture bounces back. Stick with this if you are long term like he is (he doesn't trade) where he builds a position slowly and averages down. He doesn't invest in commodities much.

DON'T BUY

It's suffering like any company in the commodities space. As USD stays strong, commodity prices continue to fall. This impacts Nutrien's potash and other phosphates. They are holding steady in their retail business. The dividend is not under stress so you get paid while you wait. However, there's nothing on the horizon that commodity prices will improve so it's not the time to buy.

BUY

He likes it and the entry point is well timed. Last year was a difficult year for them due to early frost and Nitrogen demand was weak. Longer term we are looking at an active consolidator. They have a long reserve life. They are not quite a price setter but they have good market share and can take supply up or down, depending on price of commodity. They buy back a lot of shares each year. He sees a resumption of growth this year.

HOLD

They have disappointed over the last couple of quarters. It has not rallied on the trade talks with China. The fundamentals still look good although weather has had a short term impact. He would continue to hold it. He likes their retail operations and the management team. He does hold a smaller position with them.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He would hold off. It's a good, nimble company that has good strategies and takeovers. They have continued to go down, however. There is weakness in commodity prices, though they are good operators. They trade at a higher multiple than others. You could probably start to participate at these prices, but there are mixed feelings in the fertilizer sector. Last year there was a lot of problems that impacted farm income. The need for better fertilizer is still there so they will do alright in the long-run. You could average into this stock.

WATCH

He's watching it. Nice dividend that typically grows. It's a gentle play on agriculture commodities, plus they have a retail arm. Assuming China buys ag products again, then looks ahead two years and you may be pleasantly surprised; this could outperform the market in the future.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

It will be susceptible with what happens in China, which buys their product. It's had a significant downtrend since 2008, but equally negative to the S&P. You can take a half position now, but he expects this to move to $52-55. If it breaks below, then we have some serious issues. $52 is a good spot to take a risk.

DON'T BUY

It comes down to demand from China. The price does not reflect the story, which worries him. It's in a down channel. He needs to see 3-6 months of base-building to convince him to step in. The street is too optimistic about NTR.

BUY

She'd buy it now. Last year was disappointing for potash pricing, and the trade war also hurt NTR. The signing of the US-China trade deal, phase one, should benefit US farmers and NTR. The bad news is in the stock already. NTR's retail operations in America and Australia are performing well and are stable--she likes them. Will build retail in Brazil, too. NTR generates a lot of free cash flow after the Potash merger a few years ago to buyback shares, invest in retail and raise the dividend. Pays a 3.7% yield. Didn't rally with the market last year, but will have a better 2020.

BUY

Reminds him of MFC of a few years ago--can't get out of its own way. There's potash oversupply. Weak global demand. NTR missed Q3 and lowered guidance. Suffered their worst-ever weather in 2019. Then there's the trade war. The bull argument is that NTR hasn't been this cheap in a long time, trading at 15x 2020; its retail EBITDA were up sharply last quarter. He feels potash woes will pass soon and NTR's EPS will rise 36% this year. NTR is buying back their shares and boast a strong dividend. This is a contrarian call.

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Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO)