Ross Healy

One of the huge issues that the US should be facing is what happens to Iran? Does the society there collapse? In which case, they're going to have to have more boots on the ground. They've already promised a bunch of Marines, but now they're talking about much more than that.

We've seen this before, in Iraq. Costs just spiral away. That's a really big concern.

It has the potential to get a lot worse, as it did the two other times the US intervened in the Middle East.

No. There isn't really much benefit to individual taxpayers. Most benefits are to big corporations. 

The US balance sheet is weak. The problem is now that it will result in a huge increase in the deficit. That tends to push down the USD and increase inflation.

Let's go back 26 years to 2000, when we had the last big-tech explosion. It's not that the companies weren't all needed. The problem is that in the short-term, if you way overbuild AI server farms, utilizing all that capacity is in jeopardy and so is the profitability.

You can even go back to railways in the 1800s. It's happening all over again. Vast overbuilding, and then you get a big correction in stocks. And he means a BIG correction, like 85%. This isn't trivial. 

In 2000, even great companies like CSCO had huge setbacks, though that company came through OK. We're facing very much the same kind of issues. There's the initial euphoria, and then a big setback.

Everybody's talking about AI. But who's really using it, and who's using it to make money in a substantive way? We may well get there, but it's going to take a while.

But in those big setbacks, you get some marvelous trading opportunities. That's what you need to watch for.

Balance sheet is slowly slipping away, so it's paying the dividend out of capital. With new CEO, you're getting a "money man" replacing an "operations" person. Suspects he'll cut dividend further and get company set up for growth.

Long base, appears to be breaking out. Tentative target of $85. Earnings are ticking back up again. Iran conflict increasing energy prices is quite bullish. He'd buy and hold.

Earnings have been flat. Price has topped out above FMV. Unless there's a catalyst for a substantial increase in earnings, not a compelling buy. "Has given at the office" with a heck of a run, can't expect it to go much further.

Has had a lovely move from $45. Now run past its FMV. Stock has to hold at $78; if not, expect a bigger correction. Sell at that point. Trend of earnings forecast is flat.

Yield on BAM is 3.3%, but stock's very expensive, and is now coming down. BN's yield is 0.5%, so that won't do it for you. BEPC's yield is 3.9% but, again, it's so expensive; even worse, balance sheet has slipped over last 3-4 years.

He doesn't see anything for this investor.

Yield on BAM is 3.3%, but stock's very expensive, and is now coming down. BN's yield is 0.5%, so that won't do it for you. BEPC's yield is 3.9% but, again, it's so expensive; even worse, balance sheet has slipped over last 3-4 years.

He doesn't see anything for this investor.

Yield on BAM is 3.3%, but stock's very expensive, and is now coming down. BN's yield is 0.5%, so that won't do it for you. BEPC's yield is 3.9% but, again, it's so expensive; even worse, balance sheet has slipped over last 3-4 years.

He doesn't see anything for this investor.

Lovely U-turn. Earnings trend and FMV trend are up, and stock is following nicely. Likes it. Tentative, cross-your-fingers target of $153. Still a Buy today.

Has come off with the price of gold. This name, along with AGI, is the best-run gold company in Canada, if not in the world. Both continually replace mines with fresh, high-quality reserves. Pullback is a chance to buy.

He looks at gold in the context of the US balance sheet, which is brutal (and potentially getting a lot worse). In that environment, tend to get currency weakness and renewed inflation. 

How do you protect yourself? Historically it's been precious metals, high-quality industrial stocks, and unlevered real estate. Perhaps gold got a bit ahead of itself. But does he see any improvement in the US balance sheet? No, certainly not with Donald Trump in charge.

The issue is the private credit market, and this company serves the lowest-quality tier of that market. Reality has caught up with it and peers.

Still no earnings recovery in sight. Balance sheet has been trending down. On a bounce, sell and move on.