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Stock Opinions by Ross Healy

COMMENT

He targets the S&P at slightly above 5,100, the highest target on the street. He is optimistic about markets. That target is based on 4.5x adjusted book value, the peak valuation of the market in 2000, hitting that peak three times until the market declined. Meanwhile, extremely valued companies began tumbling, but the wider bear market didn't happened until 2001. This could happen again. The TSX is stunningly cheaper than the S&P based on book value. The TSX has quite a way to run, because the banks have huge upside. Bank earnings: At least two quarters will see those loan loss provisions will flow back into Canadian bank earnings, which will allow the banks to raise dividends, which had been frozen during the lockdown as a precaution. The bank stocks have done well, but well short of historic average highs (by valuation).

Unknown
DON'T BUY
It already hit its usual valuation peak. The stock has fallen 20% and trading poorly against its technical support level. Its fair market value is high. Be cautious here. It makes him nervous. Looks like it will fall further.
Automotive
BUY

Merging with Roxgold That acquisition was unpopular with FVI shareholders, but it nicely adds gold to FVI and exposes them to the Ivory Coast of Roxgold's mine. The fair market value is much higher than current stock levels.

precious metals
BUY
Excellent dividend and cheap in terms of value. But it begs his imagination that with all that's going for it why the stock hasn't moved higher. Buy and hold on. Great dividend of 4.4%.
insurance
COMMENT
Pays a 6.7% dividend. A Waiting For Godot with a wicked stepmother on the side story. ENB has been paying too large dividends, which is pressuring the company's book value in anticipation of good numbers coming from a major acquisition 5 years ago--that's Godot (full of promise, but no payoff yet). Meanwhile, Michigan wants to shut down ENB's line 5 which would wreak havok with Ontario's energy market. So far, ENB has defied Michigan. Which side will Pres. Biden come down on? Downside risk of $41 could be heavy if Michigan wins, but it could pay off by $50 if things work out for ENB.
oil / gas pipelines
COMMENT

Threats from cryptos? Before cryptos have any impact on Visa, remember that Visa offers total safety in transactions. This and MA-N won't be displaced and if so, not very much. Both credit card stocks are very expensive, 50% overvalued. If there's a bear market, Visa will tumble.

other services
COMMENT
There isn't comparable company. GSY stock has done very well but is fast approaching its instrinsic value of $203 which would stop it from moving higher. But, GSY is running out of fundamental and technical room.
merchandising / lodging
BUY
It's pulling back to 4.5x book, a technical level. Its upside potential is 35%, plus you're paid a 3.5% yield. What's not to like here? Earnings are grinding up a bit. He expects shares to rebound.
publishing / printing
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 18/20, Up 78%) Long-term valuation, despite the huge share run-up, is still cheap. Natural gas is the one energy source that's favoured by anyone who hates carbon. Still likes this.
oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 18/20, Down 16%) He's definitely keep buying it. The company has been exploring its surrounding area and replacing its high-grade reserves. It has nice upside potential based on its current earnings forecast. The kicker may be it being a take-out by a bigger gold company.
precious metals
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Nov 18/20, Up 42%) He bought it at its long-term low, yet remains inexpensive in terms of valuation. It restored the dividend they had cut.
banks
STRONG BUY
A few years ago, it was one of his beloved stocks until it got slammed by comments from the U.S. and OSC. It has since rebounded. Its fair market value is 154% higher than the current price. If it can break out from the current $45 price, this will enjoy a nice upside. They are also buying back a lot of shares, which he thinks is stupid; raise the dividend instead.
investment companies / funds
SELL ON STRENGTH
Even if earnings tumbled back to their Feb. 2019 peak level, this stock would still be overvalued. But cloud computing stocks are hot, so Kinaxis has enjoyed a nice recovery. Technically, shares have broken out of $172 resistence and can easily reach $222. This is the same peak level of 2020. That would be the ceiling. Take profits.
0
HOLD
The dividend is safe. He doesn't say much about exchange companies. The best he can say is that this is a hold.
Transportation & Environmental Services
COMMENT
The last time, he recommended this as a trade. If it doesn't hold at $200, sell. And that's what happened. But at $150, it's at strong technical support and rebounded nicely from that level. Expect a rebound pullback, so buy at $150. But if it sinks below $150, then it's heading lower--beware. How will the Chinese government treat Chinese tech companies? That's the question. He sees only 17% upside from current prices.
0
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