Market Outlook The market is close to valuations of 2000. When the market is peaking, this may attract a new wave of investors that creates a mockery of valuation metrics. There will be a flood of financial reportings in the market next week that will undoubtedly lead to a substantial move in the marketplace. It was similar market conditions back in 2000, before the market finally let go and collapsed.

Time to take profits? He offers a FANG Friday video on YouTube each week for free. He thinks FANG stocks are the canary in the coal mine for the market. As they go, so does the market. Six of the 7 stocks have given him the buy signal. When he recommended AMZN back in April following a break out above key technical resistance. The shares then moved rapidly towards his target of $2900. It then spiked $150 in one session before rallying again. He would recommend sitting tight for now.

A solid company with a good balance sheet and nice yield. There is a modest opportunity for upside. Since 2012 they have traded between 2.5 and 3.5 times book, with a downward basis trend. The share price is unchanged in ten years and has added no value to investors in that time. He calls these stocks, "grazers" -- too comfortable to become "wolves". Nice company -- it is not going anywhere.

There is nothing about this stock that interests him. The current valuation means they can not issue more shares as it will be dilutive. Their balance sheet has gone nowhere in 10 years as they pay too much in dividends. The shares have rarely gone above book value. Not a favorite utility in his books by a long shot.

The balance sheet is fairly weak. Back in 2019 there was a movement to buy this company by another. Nothing ever happened and since then it has moved back up to book value. When he looks to the US and seeing housing builds going up, he thinks it is helping lumber stocks like this one. Historically it has tended to peak at twice book value. If everything continues to work out and US housing continues to flourish this stock has room to go. Technical support is about $13.25. If this level were to be violated he would think it will fall further. He worries that high unemployment in the US could scuttle the housing market.

He tends to like all the banks at this juncture. They were slaughtered back in March based on reduced earnings forecasts. The upside for RY is still good. He would not be surprised to see all the banks break higher. He sees a target of $123 for this bank.

Market top still 3150? The 3150 level for the S&P500 is his estimate for fair market value. There has been a radical change in the outlook for the market based on government stimulus. His fair value is now 2600-2700. The technical price-to-book metric he follows projected 3400-3600, the last peak in 2000 before the collapse -- that is about 4 times book value. There will be 500 new balance sheets coming into the market next week as earnings are reported. This will cause the market to move substantially.

(A Top Pick Jul 11/19, Up 61%) He has been bullish on the golds for some while and thinks you should hold a minimum of 20% in your portfolio. He continues to hold his gold stocks and they are now running close to 40% of his portfolio. He is letting them run as they have miles to go.

Gold He sees an extreme loss of confidence in the paper currency market sometime in the future. He recommends holding at least 20% gold in your portfolio. His gold holdings have crept up to become 40% of his portfolios and he has no intention to reduce that -- he is letting them run. This is not just as US problem, it is a global problem as the balance sheets of all the key economies are of concern. He thinks we may also see a rebound in inflation as well. He is not a gold bug, he is a balance sheet bug.

(A Top Pick Jul 11/19, Down 29%) He thought he would cleverly avoid oil stocks and hold a refiner instead. It did not work out as the stock let go from its book value to half that. The stock is fine he thinks.

(A Top Pick Jul 11/19, Down 16%) All the financial companies, including insurance and the banks, have been hammered. Low interest rates makes it difficult for these companies to make profit. When confronted with issues like these, the company has done a fine job to develop new sources of earnings. Their earnings are as high or higher than last year, when he recommended the stock. The stock is tremendously cheap at this level.

What is interesting about them is that they came through mortgage hell in 2008 with barely a ripple. It has also emerged from COVID-19 issues with barely a ripple. It is very cheap compared to its long term book value of $45. The fair market value is huge and the balance sheet is fine. He wishes they would institute a dividend that would give investors more comfortable that everything is fine. He thinks deferred mortgage payments will not be an issue for them. In a recovery, it will do very well.

More room for growth? His secret inside target price for FVI is $20. The last time gold was this high, it was trading here. Given it is trading at 1.25 times book, that is about 1/3 the valuation with peak gold and silver. Hang on to it.

He thinks the company is paying out too much cash flow to dividends. Cash flow is $1.29 yet they are paying out $1.92. With the collapse of oil the stock price has collapsed as well. So much depends on if you are bullish on oil. Commodity forecasting is something he does not do. The balance sheet is not very strong for this one.

Earnings expectations are for a $0.14 loss this year per share, compared to $1.23 from last year. The company has recovered to strongly on the US housing market recovery. Based on historic valuations relative to book value he sees a range of $11 to $16 for the share price. It has a good balance sheet. He is cautious.