Chairman at Strategic Analysis Corp
Member since: Oct '00 · 3177 Opinions
The Fed can't stop what it's doing until it wrestles inflation to the ground. People under the age of 55 don't remember what it was like the last time inflation got out of control, when interest rates went berserk up to 20% both in Canada and the US. You don't know what pain is like until you face a 20% interest rate on your mortgage. He thinks Powell is actually frightened, so get the job done, and then we can open up again. We might have a recession here and things might slow down, but as an equity person, he likes to see cheap valuations. So when markets come down, that's wonderful.
We're kind of in a bear market, but you have to define bear market carefully. It doesn't mean that everything's going down. It means the market's very discriminating and it seeks out poor values and drives them down. It also leaves room for good values to go up. Hopefully, his 3 Top Picks today will do just that.
Absolutely. Here, in Canada, TSX values are pretty good. It's dominated by banks which are relatively cheap, oils which are very cheap, and mines and golds. The heavy weights in our index point that it can go higher. We've been in the shadow of the US since 2009-2010. They had their moment in the sun, but now it's our turn to shine. Over time, the spotlight alternates between Canada and the US.
Cheap PE. Over the last 30 years, the stock's traded between a peak of 2.5x book value and a discount of 20% to book. Off peak since May 2021. We're heading into a recession, which won't help retailers and will drive the stock down further.
Stock tends to peak and trough at the same place over a long time. Hasn't hit the dead bottom yet. If you own, don't sell. Happy to buy if it got just a bit cheaper, when it would be a real steal.
Over the last 10 years, price has one trajectory but the FMV has another. It's the "jaws of death". Trading well above FMV, plus it's expensive, probably means we're going to get a setback in the stock.
In Canada, they're all very expensive, trading up near maximums. Good news is that if you're going to hold for 10 years, you're likely going to come out well, stocks will likely double. That's a 7% compound gain, which is no screaming heck. Be patient, let things fall to something that will give you a better rate of return.
Very expensive, trading up near maximums. Be patient, let things fall to something that will give you a better rate of return.
Very expensive, trading up near maximums. Be patient, let things fall to something that will give you a better rate of return.
Very expensive, trading up near maximums. Be patient, let things fall to something that will give you a better rate of return.
Balance sheet's come down in 3 steps. After the first 2 steps, the stock doubled, but it was short term and you had to be quick. No guarantees it will happen again a third time. Yesterday's dividend cut may cause a quick pop in the stock.
Peaked at quite a high multiple, now coming down in steps. Again, when the earnings trend and the valuation trend diverge, they tend to close in the "jaws of death". Terrific company. ChatGPT sounds interesting. We're in a valuation rediscovery. Be cautious. Needs to drop 20-30% more before he'd be interested.
Lots of potential, good balance sheet. Nice dividend. FMV is excellent. Needs a catalyst. Yield is 5.3%.
One of the very best of the golds. Merger with Kirkland created a powerhouse. A must-hold if you're in gold. Don't sell.
Nice in the past year and could get even better. Still bullish on oil and gas.