Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO)

107.95

-2.58 (2.33%)

as of Sep 18, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

778 watching

TOP PICK

Normally he stays away from commodity plays. They extract phosphate and potash and have a sophisticated product distribution chain with farmers. They have over 500,000 different customers around the world. The PE ratio is now sub-20 times, so it is a little more protected to a compression of multiples. Global populations will continue to grow and they need to eat. Yield 5.56% (Analysts’ price target is $61.07)

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DON'T BUY

He avoids agricultural stocks, because the weather (drought, flood) can influence a company and its input and output costs. NTR is consolidating a lot of the industry, but he avoids commodities. Commodities surge when a country goes on a building tear, as he expects someday from India.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jul 11/19, Down 28%) Continues to own it. He believes in it long term. Fertilizer is oversupplied for now, though. He likes their retail operations in the west, U.S. and Australia. Also likes their digital apps. They are a big cash flow machine and pays a 5.5% dividend yield.

DON'T BUY

Earnings have been chopped 16% for 2020 and 7% for 2021. Pays a 5.2% dividend and has a slight positive free cash flow, which should grow 2% this year and 2% next. It trades at 9.8x enterprise value to cash flow, which he ranks as a B-. The yield is nice, but NTR has weak earnings growth.

BUY

He likes it very much here. A lot of their product pricing have bottomed and are starting to move up. They made acquisitions in their retail area and are now the biggest retailer of their product in Brazil. Demand for their products is increasing. Low Nat Gas costs are helping their costs. He bought a little more recently. It just broke out technically which is also a good sign.

BUY

NTR vs. Corteva He owns both. Corteva is into crop protection. Nutrien is in fertilizer. Both are strongly correlated to commodity prices, however. Nutrien pays a healthy dividend, but Corteva offers better growth and could benefit from ongoing climate change problems. Both are best-in-class businesses.

PARTIAL BUY

A potash/nitrogen producer with a retail arm. It is a diversified way of playing this commodity. It is a little more cyclical. As of a month ago, management was still confident they could continue to pay the yield. He would have no worries buying half his position now and then see what the market does over the summer. It is a quality company.

WAIT

They are saying that farmers are behind and HAVE to put fertilizer on their fields. He feels farmers will still hold back and he would hold off on this stock. The seasonal period for this stock is late September into the fall.

COMMENT

QSR has a lot of international exposure and he sees some opening beginning to occur in China. NTR is not impacted as we all have a need for food -- you can buy here. LSPD is asset light company, unfortunately it is economically sensitive -- requiring restaurants to be open to generate revenues.

STRONG BUY

You can buy it with a lot of confidence. Opportunities like this come around once every decade or less. You have to pare down your buy list to companies that represent extraordinary value right now. Crops remain an essential in terms of feeding people in everyday life. They are indispensable to the farming community. He is looking to buy more on this downturn.

HOLD

Think of this as a cyclical stock, selling a fertilizer commodity. A slowing economy is slowing farm product sales. A slowdown in the global economy will also slow global farm product sales. When the economy begins to regain growth, like later this year he thinks, it will recover. He likes it and owns it. Just make sure you hold no more than 3-4% of this in your portfolio.

WEAK BUY

He's long owned this. There's too much potash on the market. NTR has a powerful retail segment, though, selling to farmers. This division earns well. The mining segment depends on global supply, and can be whipped around. China isn't buying much during the virus outbreak, but they eventually will. Nitrogen is oversupplied. The stock has a lot of concerns, but you can buy it while it's down.

DON'T BUY

Everything is now oversold in the market. Lots will rally. The chart looks rounded, which is a bearish sign. Levels of support have been breached multiple times.

HOLD

Holding this will not hurt your portfolio. They have a 4.5% yield. It is getting hurt with the fear of slowdown in China. In the short term, no fireworks.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Likes it, though it's been hit hard from weather, trade wars and now the coronavirus. A triple whammy. NTR generates a lot of free cash flow, though, at a 12x multiple and also pays a good dividend. They also buyback shares. The agricultural cycle is shorter than others. Buy this on a dip.

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Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO)