Stock Opinions by Ryan Modesto - Stockchase Experts
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Ryan Modesto @

On Stockchase since : Mar 2016

Managing Partner at 5i Research

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Stock Opinions by Ryan Modesto - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

September 13, 2018

It's the U.S. vs. world markets. The U.S. is still up 8% YTD while the TSX is down 0.5% YTD. It's frustrating for Canadian investors. Financials and energy make up half the TSX, so can those sectors carry the TSX? Probably not. Tech and healthcare make up only 15%.

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It's the U.S. vs. world markets. The U.S. is still up 8% YTD while the TSX is down 0.5% YTD. It's frustrating for Canadian investors. Financials and energy make up half the TSX, so can those sectors carry the TSX? Probably not. Tech and healthcare make up only 15%.

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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PARTIAL BUY
Alaris Royalty(AD-T) 

September 13, 2018

Two years ago, Alaris had two problem investments. Pays an 8% dividend. AD is turning things around with a few more investments, and they have reset their royalty rates. Things are definitely looking better. A 98% payout ratio, but that will be threatened if there's another problem investment. Cheap now. Give it one more quarter to see if things continue to do well, but you can pick away at it now.

Financial Services
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Two years ago, Alaris had two problem investments. Pays an 8% dividend. AD is turning things around with a few more investments, and they have reset their royalty rates. Things are definitely looking better. A 98% payout ratio, but that will be threatened if there's another problem investment. Cheap now. Give it one more quarter to see if things continue to do well, but you can pick away at it now.

Financial Services
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$19.450
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Reliq Health Techniques(RHT-X) 

September 13, 2018

A high-risk company in an interesting space. Healthcare providers and governments want to keep people out of hospitals, so Reliq benefits. Reliq's technology can monitor people recovering from home. They're signing contracts in Texas. They target $26 million annual recurring revenue. They've had a few product missteps, so they need to deliver that $26 million target. They're also in the process of signing contracts in Canada and Australia. This could be a big business one day, but there's a lot of risk here.

computer parts mnfctr
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A high-risk company in an interesting space. Healthcare providers and governments want to keep people out of hospitals, so Reliq benefits. Reliq's technology can monitor people recovering from home. They're signing contracts in Texas. They target $26 million annual recurring revenue. They've had a few product missteps, so they need to deliver that $26 million target. They're also in the process of signing contracts in Canada and Australia. This could be a big business one day, but there's a lot of risk here.

computer parts mnfctr
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$1.210
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Photon Control(PHO-X) 

September 13, 2018

They've done very well with a new CEO following a legal fight with a subsidiary a few years ago. A good growth play on semiconductors. Has a good balance sheet and growth potential by branching into other semicondutor components. Keep a 3-year time frame on this and expect some volatility.

electrical/electronic
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They've done very well with a new CEO following a legal fight with a subsidiary a few years ago. A good growth play on semiconductors. Has a good balance sheet and growth potential by branching into other semicondutor components. Keep a 3-year time frame on this and expect some volatility.

electrical/electronic
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$2.300
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Chorus Aviation Inc(CHR-T) 

September 13, 2018

Shares have done well. They depend long-term contracts wth Air Canada, and these contracts support their heavy debt. But what happens if things go wrong with Air Canada, given all this debt? He's on the sidelines here.

Transportation & Environmental Services
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Shares have done well. They depend long-term contracts wth Air Canada, and these contracts support their heavy debt. But what happens if things go wrong with Air Canada, given all this debt? He's on the sidelines here.

Transportation & Environmental Services
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$7.620
Owned Owned
No

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WAIT
Dollarama Inc.(DOL-T) 

September 13, 2018

Slashed their sales growth forecast today. He likes it, but high-valuation companies like this get hit if they slip in a report. They have a long runways in organic growth just through price increases over time. It could drift a bit lower, so wait a bit, but it's fine to have long term. A shareholder-friendly company that regularly buys back shares.

Consumer Products
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Slashed their sales growth forecast today. He likes it, but high-valuation companies like this get hit if they slip in a report. They have a long runways in organic growth just through price increases over time. It could drift a bit lower, so wait a bit, but it's fine to have long term. A shareholder-friendly company that regularly buys back shares.

Consumer Products
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$43.120
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY on WEAKNESS

Likes it and has owned it for a long time. They do beef jerky and other specialty foods. They buy smaller companies. Strong management. It will drift from time to time, like now. High valuation name. Be patient with this. Growth by
acquisition. They buyback shares and increase dividends. Good to own. Buy on this pullback.

food processing
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Likes it and has owned it for a long time. They do beef jerky and other specialty foods. They buy smaller companies. Strong management. It will drift from time to time, like now. High valuation name. Be patient with this. Growth by
acquisition. They buyback shares and increase dividends. Good to own. Buy on this pullback.

food processing
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$99.860
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Descartes(DSG-T) 

September 13, 2018

It has done well. Likes it. It buys smaller companies. They deal with customs and borders for customers who don't want to deal with that hassle. It has a steady growth rate in recurring revenues. 

computer software/processing
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It has done well. Likes it. It buys smaller companies. They deal with customs and borders for customers who don't want to deal with that hassle. It has a steady growth rate in recurring revenues. 

computer software/processing
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$44.440
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Pizza Pizza Royalty(PZA-T) 

September 13, 2018

Income royalty names have suffered from interest rate hike fears. He prefers other royalty companies. He'd like to see more Pizza Pizza stores and same store growth. Pays a 9% dividend. Prefers A&W who are growing their footprint in
Canada. People will always want pizza though.

merchandising/lodging
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Income royalty names have suffered from interest rate hike fears. He prefers other royalty companies. He'd like to see more Pizza Pizza stores and same store growth. Pays a 9% dividend. Prefers A&W who are growing their footprint in
Canada. People will always want pizza though.

merchandising/lodging
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$9.320
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY

He doesn't follow this closely, because it's a pre-revenue company that isn't generating positive cash flow yet, so it's too early for him to consider. It's in the drone delivery space, an interesting space. The big problem is that he doesn't know the future of drone delivery or if this company can execute. He would wait before looking at it.

Transportation
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He doesn't follow this closely, because it's a pre-revenue company that isn't generating positive cash flow yet, so it's too early for him to consider. It's in the drone delivery space, an interesting space. The big problem is that he doesn't know the future of drone delivery or if this company can execute. He would wait before looking at it.

Transportation
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Altagas Ltd(ALA-T) 

September 13, 2018

Spin-off announced today. Markets didn't like their big US acquisition, so they are spinning off Canadian assets. The spin-off is the right strategic move, but it doesn't interest him to buy the stock. They're making up for past mistakes. 

oil/gas
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Spin-off announced today. Markets didn't like their big US acquisition, so they are spinning off Canadian assets. The spin-off is the right strategic move, but it doesn't interest him to buy the stock. They're making up for past mistakes. 

oil/gas
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$23.480
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
Ten Peaks Coffee Co(TPK-T) 

September 13, 2018

A de-caffeinated coffee company which is growing faster than the caffeinated coffee market. Driven by health trends. Over the last years they've been building a new production facility which will open up their capacity, so the company will grow. They're gaining market share and launching a sales force in Europe. They're setting themselves up for growth. Cheap shares, nice 4% yield. May have to be patient until the facility opens in Q3 2019.

food services
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A de-caffeinated coffee company which is growing faster than the caffeinated coffee market. Driven by health trends. Over the last years they've been building a new production facility which will open up their capacity, so the company will grow. They're gaining market share and launching a sales force in Europe. They're setting themselves up for growth. Cheap shares, nice 4% yield. May have to be patient until the facility opens in Q3 2019.

food services
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$6.150
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK

(Past Top Pick, Nov. 14, 2017, Up 14%) An asset management company that moves with the markets. Pays a 6% dividend plus a special annual one, totalling 7%. GS can do nothing year to year, and you'll still pocket that yield. 

Financial Services
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(Past Top Pick, Nov. 14, 2017, Up 14%) An asset management company that moves with the markets. Pays a 6% dividend plus a special annual one, totalling 7%. GS can do nothing year to year, and you'll still pocket that yield. 

Financial Services
1 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$16.120
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Avigilon Corp(AVO-T) 

September 13, 2018

(Past Top Pick, Nov. 14, 2017, Up 36%) Taken out by Motorola. Bittersweet for him. They were beating market expectations with new products that looked like they had traction. But it's another case of a great Canadian company bought out. Good results, but sad to see it go.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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(Past Top Pick, Nov. 14, 2017, Up 36%) Taken out by Motorola. Bittersweet for him. They were beating market expectations with new products that looked like they had traction. But it's another case of a great Canadian company bought out. Good results, but sad to see it go.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$26.980
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Kinaxis Inc(KXS-T) 

September 13, 2018

(Past Top Pick, Nov. 14, 2017, Up 34%)  One of the strongest tech companies in Canada. They do logistics and machine learning. They "land and expand" by landing a client, then grow the contract value as the client becomes used to their services. They have global customers including Toyota. Valuation is high because it's a high-growth company. Still likes it. 

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(Past Top Pick, Nov. 14, 2017, Up 34%)  One of the strongest tech companies in Canada. They do logistics and machine learning. They "land and expand" by landing a client, then grow the contract value as the client becomes used to their services. They have global customers including Toyota. Valuation is high because it's a high-growth company. Still likes it. 

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Ryan Modesto

Managing P, 5i Research...

Price Price
$94.180
Owned Owned
Yes

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