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Stock Opinions by Chris Blumas

COMMENT
US tariffs just a device to raise revenues.

Every day on the news we see such a confrontational approach, and lots of people wonder "why?" It's a repetitive and negative news cycle that never seems to end.

Tax cuts went into effect in 2018, and they're coming up for renewal this year. It's really tough to have those renewed, and perhaps become permanent, with the huge hole in the federal budget. It adds up to $450-500B. 

That's the real reason for the adversarial approach and why it's targeting everywhere from China to Mexico to Canada to EU. If that gap can be plugged, there's potential that those tax cuts can become permanent. The gains that those cuts could add to companies are significant.

The government is treating its country like a Costco -- you have to pay the membership fee to get in the door.

COMMENT
Canadian investors.

Yes, the Canadian economy can be affected negatively. Canadian equity markets are less than 5% of global equity markets. Even if you have a home-country bias, it's important to structure your portfolio differently. 

We live in a global world, and having US assets in the current environment adds an element of protection. As the CAD depreciates, or the USD strengthens, your portfolio could still have hedging in it that helps protect those values.

COMMENT
Threat of tariffs might dissipate?

Perhaps, but it's similar to people talking about a recession. The mere fact that people are talking about it can influence behaviour and have an economic impact. For example, people in corporate boardrooms are deferring capital expenditures, hitting "pause" on spending. 

Even if it looks as though there's a way out down the road, or tariffs aren't as aggressive, in some cases the damage could already be done.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Loves the business model. Steady eddy, dependable. Wonderful company for those looking for income. On the face of it tariffs won't affect it, as these are take-or-pay contracts. Essential as the largest oil pipeline in Canada, but one concern is potential company-specific retribution; Line 5, for example, still generates hostility. High valuation, wait for a pullback. 

HOLD
Underwater -- hold or sell?

Tough question. At this point, less downside than upside. Down ~50% from highs; if you didn't get out earlier, tough it out. Consider adding a bit more. He'd say 50/50 chance dividend gets adjusted. US acquisition will require hefty capex, and that's what spooked the market.

WAIT

Wonderful company. Very constructive on it longer term. Buy on a dip; still 5-10% above his buy price, so just wait. Market has lots of volatility with political rhetoric and trade tensions, so you'll get your chance.

WATCH

Likes it very much, first-class operator. Unique ability to be counter-cyclical. Gushes lots of cash. Uncertainty of how tariffs will impact Canadian producers; this name likely caught up in it, as it's such a large index component. Watch and wait.

Benefit to CAD weakening, as it sells in USD and converts it back. Refining assets give a small hedge, but not as much as SU or IMO which are both more vertically integrated.

DON'T BUY

Biggest issue is growth. Well run, amazing brands. Valuation north of 20x, yet growth profile not as robust. Economic uncertainty, bit of weakness in discretionary spending.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Really likes it for income. Very disciplined and methodical acquisitions. Global platform:  Canada, US, and Europe. Recent earnings growth was from US side, and this will likely continue due to demand and to weak CAD. Above his buy price, so just wait a bit. Yield is 4.7%.

DON'T BUY
Reports in 2 weeks.

Sold off on DeepSeek news. He owns TSM instead. Because it designs chips, NVDA is more of a software company than TSM. His worry is that hyperscalers are looking to design their own chips. Rich valuation compared to cashflow.

Buying back tons of stock, which helps drive earnings growth. If your heart's set on it, be patient, wait for a pullback, don't chase.

COMMENT

A strategic, long-term holding. In advanced chips, everything has to flow through TSM. 

COMMENT
Gold.

In the space, you can do the physical commodity, an ETF, or the producers. For a producer, either look at a producer like AEM, or a streamer like FNV. He owns no gold right now. It's been really hot, and he doesn't want to chase. Valuations and cashflows have really come up.

DON'T BUY

One of his go-to names in the sector. Trades at a premium because it has perhaps the lowest geopolitical risk of any producer. Valuation is too rich.

DON'T BUY

His go-to name for a streamer, but he owns no gold right now as valuations have risen so much.

WEAK BUY

Phenomenal compounder. Valuation still at massive discount to US peers. Management closely aligned with shareholders and working hard to unlock value. He'd consider buying today. Unique position with capital allocation to maximize its portfolio.

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