Chris Blumas
Portfolio manager at at Raymond James Investment Counsel Ltd.
Member since: Dec '19 · 826 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
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Neutral
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Loss
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Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.42 | 52 18.37% | 80 28.27% | 47 16.61% | 70 24.73% | 34 12.01% | ||
| 1 Month | 3.68 | 1 1.22% | 32 39.02% | 26 31.71% | 22 26.83% | 1 1.22% | |
| 6 Months | 2.42 | 12 15.58% | 19 24.68% | 8 10.39% | 28 36.36% | 10 12.99% | |
| 12 Months | 3.97 | 18 26.87% | 20 29.85% | 5 7.46% | 12 17.91% | 12 17.91% | |
| 2 Years | 3.61 | 19 38.78% | 6 12.24% | 5 10.20% | 8 16.33% | 11 22.45% | |
| 5 Years | 0 | 2 25.00% | 3 37.50% | 3 37.50% | 0 0.00% | 0 0.00% |
Stock Opinions by Chris Blumas
He had been leaning more toward there being a cut. But it's not a surprise; bets were about 50/50 whether there'd be a cut or not.
If you look at the comments that came out, there's a wide range of potential outcomes -- from lots of inflation to a recession. In the end, the backward-looking economic data, such as inflation, looks reasonable. But the forward-looking data, like unemployment, doesn't look good at all.
He thought there might be some more weight given to the employment situation, given the uncertainty created by US trade policy. The BOC, consumers, and businesses are all dealing with uncertainty and that forces people to sit on their hands. A bit of relief on the interest rate side might help to provide better economic support.
He thinks so, when you think about what goes on in company boardrooms on capital budgeting. With so much uncertainty, how can you bring up a massive project for approval or invest in more people? Forces everyone to sit on their hands, as there's really nothing you can do. In fact, you're seeing companies go the other way with some layoffs.
Need a lot more certainty before you allocate capital. In the meantime, it's wait and see, which doesn't help the economy.
Wouldn't buy now. Has benefited from the economic uncertainty, and so valuation has come up dramatically. North of 35x PE, so risk that could contract over the long term. Wonderful business, well positioned with price points to capture a larger portion of wallets in tough times.
Last conference call referenced a small impact from sourcing from China, with the hit to margins yet to be seen.
Gold has benefited from all the uncertainty. Valuation very rich. If you already own it, would've appreciated significantly; so it can provide a source of capital to recycle into things more undervalued. Gold hit all-time high this morning; he doesn't have a price target. Gold price highly correlated to volatility; so if things calm down, that price will moderate.
Likes it, but don't chase here.
Likes TD a lot. Very undervalued at 10x PE. Potential for multiple to rerate in medium term. More upside as it distances itself from the overhang of regulatory infractions. All that should give you a better total return. He'd pick TD.
For BAC, even with deregulation in US, the big banks are already so large, it's hard to imagine they'd be allowed to get even bigger.
Likes TD a lot. Very undervalued at 10x PE. Potential for multiple to rerate in medium term. More upside as it distances itself from the overhang of regulatory infractions. All that should give you a better total return. He'd pick TD.
For BAC, even with deregulation in US, the big banks are already so large, it's hard to imagine they'd be allowed to get even bigger.
Good business economics. Really strong brands that generate a lot of cashflow. His hangup is the balance sheet, it's not investment grade. In times of turmoil access to credit could be restricted, and acquisitions are not in easy grasp. Lots of value at 16x PE.
As the economic situation gets tighter, discretionary items get cut. Consumers may not want to cut, but they may have to. Unemployment in both Canada and US are ticking up, and any discretionary items will be impacted.
He'd use broad money flows out of tech to enter tech. Phenomenal business economics. Don't look at its PE, just look at free cashflow. Compare price to FCF, invert that, and you get the FCF yield. Domestic demand and demand ex-Asia are still quite robust. Growth at a reasonable price here. If you've had your eye on this for a while, use this pullback to get in.
A lot of its customers are looking to get into the design business. Longer term that will have an impact. He owns TSM instead.
Not getting much love in the market. Cheaper than almost anything out there, yet keeps getting cheaper. Holding massive amount of excess cash; not using it to increase dividend or buy back shares, so it's in the penalty box. Value tends not to work in tech.
So much other great stuff out there now at reasonable prices.
The #1 question in this scenario is time horizon. If your time horizon is really short, investing in stocks doesn't make sense. If you look at market data, the odds of losing money in the stock market after 5 years is almost 0. So buy things that are undervalued with a time horizon that allows you to stick in there.
This came up more in the past when GIC rates were really high. If you own a GIC outside of a registered plan, that's 50% tax. So your 3% on a GIC is instantly halved to 1%, below the rate of inflation, losing purchasing power. If you have 3-5 years, use this volatility to focus on some great compounders. This can set you up for a very long time if you buy right. In 5-15 years, you can really grow your money, and that's where the GIC argument falls apart. See his Top Picks.
