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Stock Opinions by Chris Blumas

COMMENT

The US indices keep making new highs, but the TSX has been left behind. This comes down to the composition of the TSX which is heavy in sectors such as banks but they have been hit hard lately like the deeper cyclicals. The TSX is great for income investors, but he certainly likes some US tech names. Growth names have been bid up, so if you chase a tech name at a high valuation it will limit your returns.

Unknown
BUY

A wonderful company, one of the best in this sector with a unique operating platform. Shares had declined, but popped after striking a deal with Microsoft in a good deal; data centres need massive power.

Utilities
COMMENT

Most active managers fail to beat the index long term. You can buy and hold a passive index fund. But active traders take advantage of dips and they dollar-cost average. Also, you can buy an index fund at the top of the market, then be under water for a while. That said, the index plus dollar-cost averaging tend to beat the majority.

E.T.F.'s
BUY

It has 2 businesses: renewables and regulated utilities. AQN trades under 12x PE whereas a pure-play renewable or pure-play utility would trade a lot higher. AQN has changed management and aim to optimize their assets. He sees a lot of value here, so he has actually added to it. He sees a plan in place to realize value, and it's trickling through. There are plans to spin off or sell the renewable business to return to being a pure utility. The market isn't giving AQN any credit, so AQN sits in the penalty box because of past management mistakes.

electrical utilities
DON'T BUY
Nutrien Ltd.

Very well run, optimizing costs. But the elephant in the room in BHP and potash. BHP will go ahead with their potash mine, similar to Nutrien's, so this makes potash pricing very uncertain for the medium term.

agriculture
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Microsoft Corp
2-3-year outlook

Likes it very much but cautions over its 35x PE. Has a phenomenal growth profile, though, due to cloud business, software with an overlay of AI. MSFT boasts a lot of data, which is essential for AI.

computer software / processing
COMMENT
NVIDIA Corporation

A phenomenal business. Its rise is justified by its fundamentals. Trades at 40x forward PE, but it's insane how fast this business is growing. They've cornered the market in AI chips. His own concern is that NVDA's clients will eventually design their own chips for their specific purposes. Medium term, NVDA will face more competition. A risk is that it wouldn't take much for shares to slide; all it takes a quarter where growth is no longer 55% and re-rates to 40%. So shares slide by a third. It's tough--don't chase a stock, but NVDA is a phenomenal company. He's wary.

computer software / processing
HOLD
Caller sold some AMD shares to buy competitors. Sell the rest of AMD?

Hold on. The momentum is very strong in the semis space, all driven higher. Semis used to be very cyclical, but not anymore and their demand will be more durable. If NVDA shares slide, AMD won't necessarily fall with them, because AMD's chips are different, are not as cutting-edge as NVDA's

electrical / electronic
BUY
Royal Bank

Wonderfully run. A great chart. They did a large acquisition when its peers were tied up. Banks in general have been beaten up, so RY's PE is a reasonable 12x PE. Likes it a lot.

banks
DON'T BUY
Apple Inc

His hesitation has always lied with its reliance on their phone for revenues. It's an iPhone company doing phenomenally well with a software valuation. Yes, services are comprising more of its revenues, but they have a long way to go. Prefers MSFT.

electrical / electronic
PAST TOP PICK
Toronto Dominion
(A Top Pick Jun 14/23, Down 3%)

He's holding through the storm. TD is in the penalty box, but the PE is very attraction. He would add at these levels. TD can rectify its current issues; they have the highest tier-one capital of all of the Big 5 banks. They can weather any storm then buyback shares. Their performance in the US has not been super, but it is in Canada

banks
PAST TOP PICK
Raytheon
(A Top Pick Jun 14/23, Up 11%)

Is holding, but not buying more. They're in a nice spot straddling the defence and aerospace businesses. It's a defensive business model. The aviation business is booming now.

Defense
PAST TOP PICK
Brookfield Corp
(A Top Pick Jun 14/23, Up 29%)

Likes it. The PE is still reasonable. Being the parent company, they can move around capital to capture value for shareholders. Would buy it today.

investment companies / funds
HOLD

Enjoys an oligopoly, but prefers CP which has a better footprint though you pay a higher multiple, which its growth justifies. Long term, CP will be a bigger winner. CN remains a fine business.

Transportation
BUY ON WEAKNESS

Enjoys an oligopoly, but prefers CP which has a better footprint though you pay a higher multiple, which its growth justifies. Long term, CP will be a bigger winner. CN remains a fine business. He added on weakness. Sometimes it's worth buying momentum, but so is buying on pullback.

Transportation
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