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Stock Opinions by Chris Blumas

COMMENT
Potentially fresh all-time high for the TSX.

Quite positive sentiment. Really on the back of inflation numbers that came in for the last month, which were lower than expected. 

Unknown
COMMENT
Interest-rate sensitive stocks are taking the TSX higher.

Lots of value in the rate-sensitives particularly in utilities and telecoms, and even in Canadian banks. If you look at higher-growth names where valuations are quite rich, compared to the interest-rate sensitives where the valuations are quite reasonable, it's justified that they've run a little bit.

Unknown
COMMENT
US bank earnings have been tremendous, especially on capital markets.

Profits are profits. But on the multiple, you're definitely not willing to pay the same for wholesale earnings as you are for retail and business. What you've seen across the board is that every single money-centre bank has beaten. They've all been showing lots of strength. Citi might have been the outlier given that it was close, but it still beat.

Unknown
COMMENT
Nervous about S&P 500 trading ~23-24x forward earnings?

Absolutely, and that's the thing. Valuations are really high. You have to look at your returns going forward. If you buy high, your returns are going to be low, though you could still get reasonable earnings growth. With Q2 earnings, we saw 80% of companies beat on the bottom line. But only 60% of companies beat on the top. That divergence is quite striking. 

At some point, earnings growth will slow down. You're going to get dividends, earnings growth, and multiple expansion. Given that multiples are where they are, you're not going to get that multiple expansion. On the flipside, when everything slows, you could get multiple contraction, and that could really hit your returns.

Unknown
COMMENT
Being defensive, cautious?

You always need to be valuation sensitive, but you also have to look at where we're at in the interest-rate cycle. Over the next 18-24 months, more interest rate cuts are coming. Is that already baked into the market? Will there be more upward pressure on equities? You have to strike a balance.

Unknown
HOLD

North of 200% return over the past year, astounding. Doesn't care for the construction component or fixed-price contracts. Everyone wants more certainty in an inflationary environment; sometimes the company wins out, and sometimes the customer does. Nothing wrong with it. Earnings outlook is quite strong.

In the engineering and construction space, he follows STN and WSP, as they're pure-play design firms.

REAL ESTATE
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Morgan Stanley

Investment banks don't get a lot of love because earnings are so cyclical. Investors will put a different multiple on cyclical earnings versus steady earnings. Phenomenal job transitioning to more of a wealth manager; gives a lot more earnings durability. Prefers it to GS. Would not add here, valuation's too rich; wait for pullback.

investment companies / funds
DON'T BUY
Goldman Sachs

Durability of earnings not as high as, say, MS. Earnings are more cyclical. For Q3, surprised even themselves compared to what they were guiding going in. So if even the company doesn't know what to expect, it puts the investor in a tough spot. Still a reasonable business.

investment companies / funds
WATCH
Equifax Inc.

Main business is credit searches; a good business, but competition and only so much growth. Business economics are very strong. Recovered well from data breach. Diversifying, but into businesses that are less good than core business. Good balance sheet, reasonably well run. Comes down to growth and valuation.

other services
WAIT
Ferrari N.V.

Phenomenal company, massively profitable. Highest gross margins in the industry. Rather than a car company, he thinks of it as a luxury good manufacturer. LVMH came out yesterday with lots of weakness, emanating from China. Ferrari is different. There's such a long wait list for their cars, it's just not economically sensitive. No matter what, the billionaires will pony up.

Be patient, don't chase. Look at on a pullback during market weakness, which will happen.

Automotive
DON'T BUY

90+% revenue comes from the US. Cashflow attributes are very strong. Continues to acquire. There are only so many rollups he's willing to invest in. Quite reasonable, but just hasn't made the cut for his portfolio. Nothing wrong with the company, but slightly dilutive on the share count and insider ownership not high.

A somewhat weak year, but good outlook for growth. Could add on pullback, but there are better ideas out there.

other services
BUY

Wonderful company. As a strong operator, it doesn't get much better. Consolidating footprint in oil sands, as US companies are exiting. Deals are massively accretive, making it more of a cashflow compounder. Long resource life. Cashflow juggernaut, great business, undervalued.

Pulled back pretty hard over the last week, so now is the time to look. Oversupply into 2025 will bring some weakness. Lots of options to create value. Wouldn't own if oil dropped to $70 or below.

oil / gas
DON'T BUY
McKesson Corp

Drug distribution is a really low-margin business, which gives you less tolerance throughout your whole business. In US healthcare, they're always looking for ways to squeeze out value for consumers. Not a lot of avenues for growth.

wholesale distributors
WATCH
Amazon.com, Inc.

Parts are great. AWS, for example, is phenomenal and the leader, makes lion's share of the profits. AI is a growth driver for that. All the stuff we see as retail customers doesn't make much $$. Deals on web hosting and data centres are the cash cows. 

Great business, very well run. Would not buy ahead of earnings, wait. A selloff on a miss would be a great opportunity to buy for the long term.

specialty stores
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 18/23, Up 1%)

Wonderful business. Announcement of Seven & I deal took a lot of wind out of the stock. Fear that a deal this big will necessitate equity dilution. If it does the deal, will likely work well. They don't do deals that don't work. If the deal doesn't go through, it's back to business as usual -- buying back shares and looking for other companies.

17x PE. Consolidating in the industry, which few can do. The bigger it gets, the more profitable it becomes. He'd buy here, even without clarity on the Seven & I deal.

food stores
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