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Amazon.com, Inc.AMZNCOMMENTOct 19, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 15, 2026. Market Open.
Looking at a longer-term chart, not a huge growth rate for a company of this size with its level of market share in cloud computing. Recent pop, but he's troubled by capex spending and its issuing debt. Have to ask what's the value proposition?
If you own it, don't sell, but don't back up the truck either.
His favourites right now are AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT. They're all going higher.
On the capex spend, sometimes it's a leap of faith. You're relying on these companies having some of the smartest people in the world with the most disposable capital. And those people really believe it's not a bridge to nowhere.
Undoubtedly, some companies are overdoing it and there will be another side to the mountain. But we don't know when that will be.
Viewers are probably thinking, "Aw, Kim, you picked all the big companies." But at the stage of where the market is, these big companies can definitely go higher in price. Even if something comes out of left field, these companies have the ability to work through it.
Tremendous AI momentum. AWS is a cash cow. Also has advertising; a hidden moat, because they know what we're buying. No dividend.
Peeled back his position due to concerns about the market in general. Wonderful consumer business, fabulous web services business. The hyperscalers are spending all this $$ on data centres, but we can't tell who the winner will be. The stock is tired, same as with the other Mag 7's.
Natural gas will be a winner ;) That's a better play. See his Top Picks.
Way to get exposure to both e-commerce and AI buildout. AWS powers a large part of the internet, and increasingly becoming key to companies looking to deploy AI into real-world applications. Evolving from just a cloud story to a platform enabling AI to scale.
Holding despite trading sideways. Will be a leader in the space.
Hold or Sell?If you are holding it, you are buying it. There is no question there is a tremendous amount of growth ahead. It’s very hard to justify valuation. While he has confidence that e-commerce penetration is going to increase very gradually from 9%-10% in the US, when you look at their valuation it is difficult to justify how much earnings are going to have to grow for the valuation to come down to a market multiple. Trades at about 110X next year’s earnings. If you take that market multiple and bring it down to a multiple of about 20, that implies earnings are going to have to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 48% over 10 years. Very few companies have been able to do that.