Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU.TO)

Despite pullback, still sees positives going forward. About 22% upside to her target price. Plenty of cash that it keeps investing to continue the momentum of earnings growth. 9/10 on value, 8/10 on fundamentals. Not a core holding the way CNQ is.

Very good operator. Long life reserves. Bullish on oil and natural gas sector. LNG Canada completion will be excellent for the business. Brilliant leadership. Very good for long term investors. 

The question was on her preference between Tourmaline or Arc resources. It is fine to own both - they are both well managed and have good assets. They own Arc because they like assets slightly better.

Best managers in the business. Minimal debt. Pays a small dividend but will issue special ones depending on the oil price -- likes this. They got their toe in the water early in LNG. Smart. The outlook for natural gas has been tough in recent years, but looks better ahead as the transition to green energy takes longer.

One of the highest-quality names you can buy to get access to a bullish natural gas outlook for 2025. He has about a 5% weighting. Provides ballast to a portfolio to counteract volatility of smaller names.

Rock star CEO, very good management team, huge inside ownership, decades and decades of drilling inventory, very good gas marketing teams. 9.2% free cashflow yield. Target of $93, or 36% upside.

"Regular" dividends are 30c quarterly, for a yield of 1.7%. However, TOU pays a special dividend approximately every four months as well, and we have tried to capture that in the yield, as it has done this for four years in a row and intends to keep doing so. In the past year TOU has paid special dividends of 50 cents (March 2024), $1.00 (November 2023), $1.00 (August 2023) and $1.50 (May 2023). 
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Largest natural gas producer in Canada. Shares volatile, fluctuating with the shares of nat gas. Now on a rebound. Key to the story is management, has done a good job and owns lots of shares. Balance sheet flush with cash, picked up assets at discount. Profitable at $1.50 gas, and gas is above that. Known for its special dividends. Yield's around 3.5%, often gets close to 10% with the special dividends. Hold now, buy more on weakness.

80% of business is natural gas, with prices in the dumps now after a warm winter. This will normalize. This is story about the electrification of the grid and more LNG coming in Canada, which will ship nat gas overseas and raise nat gas prices. Great balance sheet and CEO.

He owns more oil than gas. In the world of the more gassy companies, TOU has great assets. On the chart, use the double-bottom $53 as a stop. As LNG picks up, there will be a better market.

Canada's go-to natural gas name. Great CEO, much insider share ownership, decades of high-quality inventory, and quality infrastructure. Everyone wants to own nat gas now, because next year will see a big buildout of LNG capacity which will raise nat gas prices. Now, there's a lot of nat gas in storage because last winter was so mild. The next few quarters will be nasty for the nat gas price, but the market knows this. At $4 nat gas in 2025, TOU would trade at 5x cash flow and 10% free cash flow yield, a premium to its peers. $89 price target or 42% upside.

The price of natural gas has been low because of a warm winter. Tourmaline has a very good balance sheet and is a low cost producer. It has exposure to oil and liquids pricing, and he sees it as 1/2 gas and 1/2 oil. If you are looking for just oil stocks, stick with the big ones paying dividends. It could have been his top pick.

Names to look at in the oil space, offering more torque or upside to the price of oil.

Gas has been tremendously out of favour due to the warm winter. US policy has driven pricing down as well. Remarkably good producer. Earnings beat. Raised dividend by 7%. Reducing capex by 9%. Very solid reserve. 20% growth. Trades in line with peers. A good buy here.

Very strong business model with excellent 4th quarter earnings report. Weakness in natural gas prices not a concern. Very low cost operator with excellent marketing and management team. Selling to California and Pacific US to realize higher pricing. Company able to realize global prices with creative marketing agreements. Reserves increasing at steady rate with 85% undeveloped. Canada's top natural gas producers. Stable dividend that consistently increases. Special dividend also adds to yield. LNG Canada will also help business mode. Excellent long term hold. 

Well run, strong company. But we're in a different market right now, where value won't perform as well as growth. If money's rotating out of your neighbourhood, you'll probably underperform. A place to be when energy pops.