Tourmaline Oil Corp (TOU.TO)

One of the highest-quality names you can buy to get access to a bullish natural gas outlook for 2025. He has about a 5% weighting. Provides ballast to a portfolio to counteract volatility of smaller names.

Rock star CEO, very good management team, huge inside ownership, decades and decades of drilling inventory, very good gas marketing teams. 9.2% free cashflow yield. Target of $93, or 36% upside.

"Regular" dividends are 30c quarterly, for a yield of 1.7%. However, TOU pays a special dividend approximately every four months as well, and we have tried to capture that in the yield, as it has done this for four years in a row and intends to keep doing so. In the past year TOU has paid special dividends of 50 cents (March 2024), $1.00 (November 2023), $1.00 (August 2023) and $1.50 (May 2023). 
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Largest natural gas producer in Canada. Shares volatile, fluctuating with the shares of nat gas. Now on a rebound. Key to the story is management, has done a good job and owns lots of shares. Balance sheet flush with cash, picked up assets at discount. Profitable at $1.50 gas, and gas is above that. Known for its special dividends. Yield's around 3.5%, often gets close to 10% with the special dividends. Hold now, buy more on weakness.

80% of business is natural gas, with prices in the dumps now after a warm winter. This will normalize. This is story about the electrification of the grid and more LNG coming in Canada, which will ship nat gas overseas and raise nat gas prices. Great balance sheet and CEO.

He owns more oil than gas. In the world of the more gassy companies, TOU has great assets. On the chart, use the double-bottom $53 as a stop. As LNG picks up, there will be a better market.

Canada's go-to natural gas name. Great CEO, much insider share ownership, decades of high-quality inventory, and quality infrastructure. Everyone wants to own nat gas now, because next year will see a big buildout of LNG capacity which will raise nat gas prices. Now, there's a lot of nat gas in storage because last winter was so mild. The next few quarters will be nasty for the nat gas price, but the market knows this. At $4 nat gas in 2025, TOU would trade at 5x cash flow and 10% free cash flow yield, a premium to its peers. $89 price target or 42% upside.

The price of natural gas has been low because of a warm winter. Tourmaline has a very good balance sheet and is a low cost producer. It has exposure to oil and liquids pricing, and he sees it as 1/2 gas and 1/2 oil. If you are looking for just oil stocks, stick with the big ones paying dividends. It could have been his top pick.

Names to look at in the oil space, offering more torque or upside to the price of oil.

Gas has been tremendously out of favour due to the warm winter. US policy has driven pricing down as well. Remarkably good producer. Earnings beat. Raised dividend by 7%. Reducing capex by 9%. Very solid reserve. 20% growth. Trades in line with peers. A good buy here.

Very strong business model with excellent 4th quarter earnings report. Weakness in natural gas prices not a concern. Very low cost operator with excellent marketing and management team. Selling to California and Pacific US to realize higher pricing. Company able to realize global prices with creative marketing agreements. Reserves increasing at steady rate with 85% undeveloped. Canada's top natural gas producers. Stable dividend that consistently increases. Special dividend also adds to yield. LNG Canada will also help business mode. Excellent long term hold. 

Well run, strong company. But we're in a different market right now, where value won't perform as well as growth. If money's rotating out of your neighbourhood, you'll probably underperform. A place to be when energy pops.

Canada's top natural gas producer. CEO was voted top CEO of the year by the Financial Post and owns so many shares and doesn't take a salary. A great time to own this. Shares have been weak in recent months. He expects special dividends ahead and 15-17% total return even at current nat gas prices.

Overall, excellent company with very strong leadership. Canada's #1 natural gas producer. Weak natural gas prices difficult, but overall a great business. Excellent assets that are best in class. LNG agreements will also allow more selling points (higher income). Recent Bonavista deal  very strong. Tax pools and hedging strategy also add to bottom line. Debt levels less than 1x cash flow (very good level). Dividends steady, and also pays a special dividend (~11%). Will continue to own shares. 

The whole natural gas sector will get frothy from buyouts and valuations. TOU is an undervalued stock in an undervalued sector. Could be volatility around their March 6 report, but this is a buying opportunity. Wait till March 6. Targets 60% upside from here.

If he ran an energy fund, he'd definitely buy it, but shares move around alot because it's tied to natural gas prices which are not doing well and face more downside.