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Stock Opinions by Grant White

COMMENT
Has volatility prompted a portfolio rethink?

It didn't cause him to change his mind on anything. When you see the world panicking around you, even portfolio managers take stock. So that's what he did earlier in the week, confirming theses and themes on companies he owns or is looking to buy.

What it means to him is whether there are opportunities out there. There were short-term opportunities, maybe not as much anymore. These markets will create lots of opportunities in the coming months.

Unknown
COMMENT
Four weeks in a row with the S&P lower, earnings under pressure. When does the selling pressure end?

Markets were priced for perfection coming into the last few weeks. Anything less was going to cause choppiness. On top of that, there's the consideration of whether the US is going to go into recession. What's going to happen with the wars overseas, or with the US election? All creating a perfect storm of opportunity for volatility.

These opportunities are welcome, as it wasn't clear how the market was going to take next steps higher. Selling  pressure has a ways to go. Investors need to be prepared that this volatility could last a long time.

A few weeks ago, we would have celebrated a bad jobs report because it meant that the Fed would cut rates. Now we fear that a bad jobs report is going to take the US into a recession. Things can change quickly in the markets.

Unknown
COMMENT
Does July's poor jobs report in Canada all but guarantee another BOC cut?

Absolutely. In Canada, we're looking at future rate cuts and those will be warranted. We were too aggressive at increasing rates on the other side, and now we're being too slow to catch it on the bottom. Par for the course for central banks historically.

The bigger concern is how quickly will the US look to cut rates, and will they be caught chasing it as well.

Unknown
COMMENT
Inflation print next week.

Stuck between a rock and a hard place at the Federal Reserve, between lower job numbers and higher inflation. Really hard to get this call exactly on. Because they are so scared of inflation, suspects that they'll make this call late, preferring to deal with a recession than with inflation. That's been the case this entire time, and likely the case this time as well.

First and foremost is inflation. Jobs reports are interesting and they'll keep an eye on them. Calls for an emergency rate cut are premature at this point.

Unknown
COMMENT
Approach to stock selection.

He loves unique opportunities. Companies that are unique in their space that provide different opportunities. Especially in the world where we are today, things that are outside the Magnificent 7 suit his style perfectly.

Growth at a reasonable price. Not a straight value-investment type shop, loves growth companies. For example, his upcoming Top Picks are not the traditional types of value offering.

Unknown
HOLD
Nike Inc

Difficult quarters recently. Recent earnings misses. Strong brand power. Concerns on valuation. A leader in its space. Slower revenue growth; this would have to change for him to be interested. If you own it, hold; but don't add now.

misc consumer products
DON'T BUY
Buy for the dividend?

Bit of a dividend trap, though not the worst one. Dividend is quite nice, safe. Revenue growth is slow, either negative or very low. Not much future. Could buy short-term for the dividend, but his outlook is more long term. Yield is 8.5%.

tobacco
BUY
goeasy
Record results today, revised guidance higher, yet stock's down.

Robust cashflow, consistent revenue growth. Company looks pretty strong. He'd like to see it demonstrate consistent earnings growth; if it did, he'd move it from Buy to Strong Buy. Don't let short-term performance dissuade you on this one.

Financial Services
HOLD
Michigan Lottery decided not to renew contract.

If you own it, hold, but don't double down. Stable revenue growth, solid financial position. Good debt situation. For him, would need to show more significant revenue and cashflow growth. Would also help if it improved dividend yield. Losing a customer is definitely a risk.

Decent company. As a guy from Winnipeg, he wishes the Pollard family well.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS
SELL
Intel

Doesn't love the valuation (forward PE of 52.42x, significantly higher than industry average) relative to earnings. Sees ongoing financial challenges in returning to profitability. Lots of competition. Doesn't see a quick turnaround.

computer parts mnfctr
SELL

Don't catch the falling knife. Challenged. Dividend cut, high debt levels, restructuring. Positive steps being taken. He needs to see restructuring follow through, debt reduced significantly. 

electrical utilities
DON'T BUY
CM vs. BMO

He'd pick BMO. All Canadian banks are in solid financial position for the most part, attractive yields, stable earnings.

banks
BUY
Bank of Montreal
BMO vs. CM

He'd pick BMO. All Canadian banks are in solid financial position for the most part, attractive yields, stable earnings. Would love to see higher revenue growth, better-managed credit risk, and resilience in face of current headwinds. If BMO could do that, he'd raise it from Buy to Strong Buy.

He's a long-term investor. BMO will weather the short-term noise about credit quality in the US.

banks
HOLD
Bank of America

Always interesting when Mr. Buffett sells assets, to be taken with a grain of salt. BRK has a much different time horizon, could just be realizing full value, might just be pivoting to better opportunities. Great quality. If you own it, still a good core holding. Better opportunities out there, but don't exit completely.

Wants to see stronger revenue growth, further reduce debt ratio, continue delivering shareholder returns. 

banks
HOLD

Looking at the chart, if you still own it just ride it out. Legal ramifications still to play out from the upgrade fiasco. Much bad news already priced in. Don't buy in or add, still drama. If it comes through unscathed, stock could lift on the other side.

Technology
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