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President and CEO at Rule Investment Media
Member since: Mar '05 · 1240 Opinions
He bought the shares because he thought they were cheap based on free cash flow and also that the company would get control of over-runs. Both things happened. He is medium neutral on gold in 2026 but extremely bullish in 2027. His suspicion is that the U.S. political class can't afford for interest rates to rise particularly with increased debt servicing by the US government. There could be voter request for lower interest rates which would reverse US dollar strength and lead to higher gold prices. Gold depends on the direction of US interest rates.
It is one the premier service companies in the world. The spending cycle for oil industries worldwide is going to pick up in a very dramatic way and SLB will be a primary beneficiary. He doesn't think the big investment in renewable energy will reduce the market share of fossil fuels by much, at least for transportation fuel. He also thinks peak oil demand will occur in 2060/2065 and that peak oil consumption is a long way off.
The limited exports that can get through the Strait of Hormuz will benefit Nutrien. Canada's natural gas industry has an opportunity and Nutrien has access to this. He has owned Nutrien and its predecessors for almost thirty years and plans to own for a long time. It has become a very integrated fertilizer company and now sells to farmers.
Copper in Kazakhstan. It has one of the best drill holes but he considers it highly speculative, so if you're not a speculator don't buy it. Several drill holes don't make a mine. Kazakhstan is very well geologically endowed and their way to develop the economy is through hydrocarbon and mineral production - these are positives for a mining company. There are political considerations.
The value of their portfolios is substantially greater than the price of the stock. He trusts management and they have done very well as a mining merchant bank supplying capital and expertise. They may be seeking to become a mining company. Dundee Corp is a very good way for Canadians to participate in the mining industry in a broad sense.
Its value and ability to generate cash returns to shareholders is understated by the market. It is the most financially sustainable in its field in North America. Heavy capital expenditures are behind them and the reserve base is extraordinary. It can distribute returns to shareholders and still have capital to fund expenditures and growth, Buy 11 Hold 4 Sell 0
(Analysts’ price target is $42.09)It generates huge amounts of free cash flow. Assets under management have increased dramatically and management fees have also increased. It is managed from the US and most assets under management are in the US. However most employees are in Toronto. It could be a takeover target and is highly leveraged to the natural resources extractive industry. He is the largest shareholder.
He feels that we are in the early to mid stages of a fairly long bull market in precious metals and natural resources.
Buy 4 Hold 1 Sell 1
Expects it to retrace. If you assume that peace holds with Iran, his suspicion is that the higher oil prices that we've endured for a while will kill some demand in lower-income countries (such as Pakistan and Sri Lanka), but not make much of a difference in Canada and the US. When supply comes back, he expects price volatility to the downside (as long as peace holds).
He doesn't know, and he's not sure anybody does. His own view is that the oil price runup that we saw was more a function of an anticipated supply shortage, while countries were able to work off inventories. He's told that there are ~200 loaded cargoes north of the Strait, and ready to proceed through. He suspects that producing countries (with the possible exception of Iran) have pretty good stored inventories that they couldn't move.
This is all speculation on his part, based on whatever he's been able to read. To say that the data is conflicting is an understatement.
To the extent that the oil price falls off, his suspicion is that the market will begin to discount the fact that we're going to have shortages in the future that aren't war-related. Rather, they'll be related to the industry under-investing by ~$1B a day in terms of sustaining capital investments.
Over the next 5-10 years, he feels good about precious metals and mining. In the very near term (this summer), he wouldn't be surprised to see mining stocks in all shapes and forms go down. Two reasons for this: rising US interest rates plus higher oil might cause a synchronized global slowdown.
If mining and oil/gas stocks are sharply lower, this summer would be a lovely time to establish positions. Both industries should do very well over the next 5 years.