
TSE:TD
This summary was created by AI, based on 61 opinions in the last 12 months.
The reviews for Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) highlight a cautious but generally optimistic outlook on the stock's performance. Many experts suggest that while TD has made significant recovery after the money laundering penalty, it is currently trading at a high price-to-earnings (PE) ratio compared to historical norms, prompting some to recommend trimming positions or taking profits. The bank's valuation, hovering around 14x to over 16x PE, has raised concerns of overvaluation, especially with future growth potential in the U.S. still clouded by regulatory issues. However, the majority of analysts maintain that TD is a strong long-term investment, appreciating its solid position in Canada and improving fundamentals. They also expect that TD's efforts in wealth management and capital markets will drive future earnings growth despite short-term challenges.
How long can this bull market last? Cyclical bull markets last 24-36 months between major corrections, and we cleared one at the start-2019. Secular bull markets run 15-18 years with interruptions like 2014-5 and 2018. In 1981, the baby boomers hit peak investing years and they peaked out in 2000 which was the end of that secular bull market. The millennials are a bigger group than the boomers--and they've just hit the same point as 1981. So, this secular bull run could stretch into the 2030s. Crashes happen, but don't last. He predicts two years ahead of clear sailing. A generation low in interest rates help. TD will be fine, but he prefers JPM or BAC.
RY vs TD vs SLF? He owns both of the banks and he prefers this space over the insurance sector. RY has a stronger approach on the wealth management side, whereas TD focuses on retail customers and has a larger presence in the US. Right now he would favour TD. Canadian banks of been held back as of late because of a unwarranted fear about the housing market in Canada. Dividends with the banks are great too.
CDN Bank shares or ETF? As a porfolio manager, he prefers to use his expertise to pick individual stocks. An ETF gives you the group and no ability to outperform. Canadian banks are favorable over US counterparts he thinks, including the higher yield. He likes BNS and RY. He does not hold much in TD at the moment. He holds about 20% of his portfolio in banks.
It's his biggest bank holding, which he considers a North American bank. All Canadian banks have suffered from low interest rates; they're rangebound. But he's sticking with this, because the US economy is still sound where TD has half its business. TD acquired US companies at a good price. 18 months from now, TD will be much higher. He also like JPM.