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Gerard Ferguson
CEO & Portfolio Manager at Jemekk Capital Management
Member since: Jun '16 · 256 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.59 | 51 31.87% | 45 28.13% | 15 9.38% | 17 10.63% | 32 20.00% | ||
| 1 Month | 3.44 | 2 6.06% | 14 42.42% | 9 27.27% | 5 15.15% | 3 9.09% | |
| 6 Months | 3.75 | 7 21.21% | 16 48.48% | 2 6.06% | 7 21.21% | 1 3.03% | |
| 12 Months | 3.8 | 16 48.48% | 8 24.24% | 2 6.06% | 1 3.03% | 6 18.18% | |
| 2 Years | 3.49 | 13 39.39% | 5 15.15% | 1 3.03% | 2 6.06% | 12 36.36% | |
| 5 Years | 3.47 | 13 46.43% | 2 7.14% | 1 3.57% | 2 7.14% | 10 35.71% |
Stock Opinions by Gerard Ferguson
COMMENT
Apple guides down on the quarter due to the virus is expected. Will this be a one-quarter blip or drag on? He thinks it will be a blip and the virus contained, based on past viruses. The market resiliency is incredible during this crisis, because there's amply liquidity in the market. He isn't adding to his portfolio during days of weakness, but he's aware of market volatility. Oil: he's taken a step back and not bought oil. Funds are flowing into renewable energy, not fossil fuels, especially by younger investors. This is a permanent change.
Unknown
N/A
Unknown
HOLD
He likes it. There's a big shift in e-cars, though, and they are impacted by the coronavirus. Magna will survive in both cases, because management is smart, though they may struggle to adjust to supplying e-cars for a while. It's okay to hold.
BUY
It's become the poster child for yield and will continue to provide that at 6%. ENB's stock price should also move up. Great for income.
oil / gas pipelines
HOLD
A growth by acquisition story. He sold in the Q4, though he wishes he still owned it. There's no big catalyst for this stock, but it will continue to perform.
Telecommunications
BUY ON WEAKNESS
It's not cheap and priced for perfection--but it IS delivering perfection. There will be pullbacks when high-multiple stocks get hit. They just reported a great quarter, and offers fine growth. He hasn't trimmed his holding. Hold this until they start disappointing investors, if that happens. It's a real competitor to Amazon, and US investors are buying Shopify.
BUY
They excel with businesses they own Marks Work Warehouse and Sportcheck. The franchise system is working great; CTC is franchise-driven. A premier retail name in Canada. Strong all around.
specialty stores
WEAK BUY
Underperforming? All banks have been limited by low interest rates, but still pay good yields. You're not losing money in TD, but he doesn't see rates changing much. You can expect 8-10% a year, including the yield. 8-10% isn't bad. Low yields will continue to squeeze margins. Anyone should buy banks and he has no worries buying this.
banks
HOLD
The poster child of the Canadian energy patch: high 12-14% yield which is an opportunity but also a threat. They could cut that dividend, but they never have, so he doubts they will. If the stock remains flat, at least you get that dividend. VET could buyback shares.
oil / gas
COMMENT
Volatile, but people love green energy. A name that people flock to in innovative energy. Was up 75% last year. It could move higher, driven by ESG sentiment, but at some point they have to deliver fundamentals. The stock has run ahead of itself.
misc industrial products
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 22/19, Up 16%) The theme of precious metals is gaining momentum and these stocks have been rising since last year. People are seeking yield in precious metals during a time of low interest rates. He still holds this. He's not surprised with the gold rally lately, but will the next generation buy it?
metal mines
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 22/19, Up 16%) It's in gaming. They did a strategic review in late-2019 that led to an equity issue for further acquisitions (which drive their growth). He sold in the 4th quarter, but the stock has risen since then. They haven't misfired yet, and the equity issue didn't dampen the stock as he expected. He wants to re-buy this on weakness.
other services
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 22/19, Up 33%) A Canadian success. The CEO is retiring; it's converted from an income trust into a corporation; and they entered the big California market. All these major events have pushed up the stock. It's a a beautiful chart, largely helped by the conversion from an income trust. Consolidation is still early in the U.S., so there's a lot of runway ahead, especially in California.
other services
BUY ON WEAKNESS
They're caught in a perfect storm of coronavirus and the Boeing Max 737, both of which are temporary problems. AC quarterly results today were merely okay. Q1 guidance is impacted by the virus, though less than he expected. But Aeroplan and the Air Transat deal are tailwinds. AC is still a cheap name. He owns a lot of this.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
A great global brand, impacted by the virus, but the virus will pass. There's demand for their jackets and there's still room for them to expand in retail. Buying distressed luxury brands on weakness is a good idea.
clothing
BUY
It benefits from its global reach and has a piece of all the action in all its Brookfield stocks. This can replace a Canadian bank stock. BAM is very well run and has the attention of global investors. It's not risk-free (given low interest rates), but strong overall.
management / diversified
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