Shopify Inc. (SHOP.TO)

This was a market darling. It consolidated very nicely, broke out and moved up. There is a pretty good level of support, so it is not necessarily a bearish looking chart, but is nowhere near a bullish looking chart. It is not making new highs, and is struggling to make a higher low. To him, that is a consolidation pattern. He would avoid this.

They report tomorrow. It is a great company but every morning he has to wake up and decided if it has the best risk/reward and he does not think that right now. The allegations against them are not that valid but a lot of people probably sold on the announcement because they didn’t know much about the company.

A short-seller dropped the stock price, and the battling back-and-forth has created problems. The sector is doing really well. This has been trading in a range recently. They are coming on with earnings next week, and will clarify their positions. We are at the top end of the trading range in the sector’s seasonal period. Wait until the earnings actually come out. If it breaks out in the top end of the range, that is a very positive sign.

Sold his positions some weeks ago. It’s a little early yet to step back in. He doesn’t like being in a situation where there is an activist creating waves. Loves the company and loves the concept, but it is a situation where there are no earnings yet. Wait a little.

They will probably beat estimates. They consistently jump over the bar that people have set for them. It has been a great success story but it is an expensive stock and he is a value investor. He forecasts strong growth in the near term.

Vulnerable to the Shorts, because the valuation is incredibly expensive. They are still not making any money. Believes the Bulls have $.20 in earnings for 2018, back-end loaded. That would mean it is trading at 600X earnings, and something like 30X EBITDA. Still too expensive and vulnerable. You could maybe trade it, but if it ever misses it would be $80 before you could shake a stick at it.

(A Past Top Pick Jan 18/17, Up 85%) It has been called a multilevel marketing company. They have never missed a quarter as a public company. There are a lot of eyes on it. They have recurring revenue. None of the allegations are new.

A great case study. Basically, traded from $15 to $120, and consolidated nicely along the way. When the Citron report came out, the stock was at $105. Fundamentally, it is a great business. The Citron report had enough holes to drive a truck through, but there is some smoke. He was stopped out at $105 and has moved on. He’ll wait and see how the company handles this. There will be more when earnings come.

A prominent short seller came out with an attack on the business model. The work was pretty sketchy in the short seller’s report. They will deal with it when they report on November 2. He continues to like it. The pull back is just a cooling off. It is a normal course correction in a stock with a high multiple. They anticipate profitability in the fourth quarter.

The short position of Mr. Andrew Left and Citron?You can’t say his news is fake news. You can say that he is delivering his opinion. He has never quite understood this company to personally get into it, but has been jealous of anybody who has. However, he has funds that hold it. The more he hears about the methodology, he wonders about the casino aspect of venture capital listing on its site, when he knows historically that 1 out of 20 venture capital used to be the rate of success. He doesn’t feel it will go higher.

By any stretch of the imagination, this is still a speculative stock. They’ve invested about $900 million, but valuation is $9 billion. Yet they haven’t earned any money and are still negative EBITDA. A game changer with a really great technology and can be widely used by many businesses. Has a good overall business model.

He would not buy it. He would want to see it stabilize more, considering the short report. He may have to buy it back higher but he would want to know they are executing. It has been unbelievable. It is volatile without short reports. You can trade it around using a tool. Once their numbers come out the stock tends to gap up. There will be a cloud over them until their next quarterly numbers come out.

One of his Top Picks about 45 days ago. Recommended it in late August and got in at a good price, and had been up 25%. He uses stop losses, and on the first tweak he saw from Citron, he exited his position. As a result, he lost 6%-7%. It is going to be a real tug-of-war for the next couple of days. All the analysts have not budged. We need to see this play out for a while. He is cheering for the company.

He is Short this, but not because of any holes in the story. It was just based on excessive valuations. Growth is still in place. In the short term, the problem is because of questions that were brought up by Citron, especially about the affiliate system, where a lot of people are setting up storefronts just to bring in others. That is not going to last. If you own, he would take a little money off the table.

Designed for merchants to end up getting payments through the web, and have been very successful at doing that. Sales have grown significantly. In 2016, they lost $.17, and the 2017 forecast is looking for a loss of $.09. In 2018 they go positive at $.21, but compared to a stock price of roughly $126, that is a pretty big multiple. Thinks that is what the big debate is about.