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Peter Hodson
CEO & Head of Research at 5i Research Inc.
Member since: Feb '03 · 2294 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.73 | 94 30.42% | 65 21.04% | 28 9.06% | 51 16.50% | 71 22.98% | ||
| 1 Month | 3.6 | 3 4.69% | 22 34.38% | 22 34.38% | 17 26.56% | 0 0.00% | |
| 6 Months | 3.91 | 12 18.75% | 25 39.06% | 2 3.13% | 13 20.31% | 12 18.75% | |
| 12 Months | 3.73 | 25 39.68% | 10 15.87% | 3 4.76% | 10 15.87% | 15 23.81% | |
| 2 Years | 3.73 | 30 47.62% | 3 4.76% | 0 0.00% | 6 9.52% | 24 38.10% | |
| 5 Years | 3.66 | 24 43.64% | 5 9.09% | 1 1.82% | 5 9.09% | 20 36.36% |
Stock Opinions by Peter Hodson
COMMENT
The markets are way up, but investors are climbing a wall of worry, scared of many things. He himself is an optimist, because the market has always gone up the last century. It pays to be an optimist. If you're not, don't get into stocks. Long-term, there'll be higher taxes, but short-term people will get into stores and restaurants again. There's a light at the end of the tunnel and we'll see more good vaccine news. People have been locked in their homes for months and will get out. At the same time, governments have thrown a lot of money into the system. The Fed will raise interest rates, but very gradually over time.
Unknown
N/A
Unknown
DON'T BUY
All infrastructure has been hit this year with the oil price collapse. However, these oil storage companies depend on volume, not the price of oil. That said, everyone dislikes the energy sector, so sentiment is negative. KEY's payout ratio is 65% as the dividend reaches 9%. There's not much growth here. The dividend is probably okay, but if the price of oil plummets, the dividend could be cut (along with many oil stocks). This is merely okay, not exciting. He wants to see growth before buying it.
oil / gas
WEAK BUY
It has great exposure to China and is a strong brand. Likes it. The balance sheet is okay, but sales should increase next year in China where they are recovering far better from Covid than we are in the West. That said, the stock is pricey.
clothing
BUY
Likes it. It's cheap vs. its peers. They did financing and have a lot of cash. Expect acquisitions. Own this for 4-5 years. Buy for now, but hold for that long. It will bounce around with the tech sector. They've done the right things this year to shore up their balance sheet.
Telecommunications
BUY
It's unique in Canada without peers, really. They haven't issued much stock in recent years. Note that in Q3 in the middle of the pandemic, they had record charge-ups on their financed loans--they know how to finance loans and make money. They know what they're doing. The PE is cheap and the returns are through the roof. He expects a dividend hike next quarter. This is one of the best-run companies around. True, they charge really high interest rates to their customers, though it's legal.
Financial Services
COMMENT
The effect of China signing the RECP pact with other Asian nations--will that push Canadian raw materials out of the picture? https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/11/15/business/asia-pacific-rcep-trade-deal/ It's a big picture question. Oil companies here have been decimated. These companies have to shift to renewables or find other export markets. If not, we'll become a domesticated market which will lead to lower prices, profits, etc. He doesn't see an easy way out of this.
Unknown
BUY
Are they positioned for the e-car sector vs. their peers? Magna is better-positioned vs. Canadian auto suppliers. They have a balance sheet advantage, which is clean, and they have global partners entrenched who are all moving to e-cars. Magna doesn't advertise their business in e-cars, but he firmly believes they are involved and will be further involved a decade from now. They have the balance sheet to buy e-car suppliers. It's a solid, well-run company that sets them up long term. It has growth potential as the world recovers.
Automotive
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 23/20, Up 46%) When China started to shut down from Covid earlier this year, Kinaxis benefitted from many companies suddenly stopped receiving shipments from China because Chinese factories closed; Kinaxis offered solutions to ensure this stoppage wouldn't happen again. Kinaxis picked up a lot of business. Tech, including this, has sold off lately, with the vaccine rally, but this remains a solid company.
0
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 23/20, Up 14%) It's been a crazy ride, bouncing up and down sharply since its IPO then during Covid. It delivered a stunning second quarter in the middle of the pandemic, growing 70% which stunned the markets. They shifted business online. They put in a U.S. IPO which investors gobbled up and are calling it the next Shopify. Sitting on a lot of cash, they just did a nice acquisition in the U.S. to bulk up their revenue. Management knows what they're doing.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 23/20, Down 23%) It got a good boost from the growth to value shift. He likes this for its duopoly position (training pilots). True, few pilots are getting trained now, but CAE will benefit when that demand returns. Wait long enough and this stock will come back. Today, CAE is buying a Dutch company; some investors are concerned about their debt levels. The benefit of this purchase is to expand in Europe. The purchase will take the bounce out of the stock, but he still believes in it.
transportation equip & components
DON'T BUY
Lassonde buying 19% of the company was recent good news. However, the market cap is only $26 million (too small for him), there remains some debt, and the growth rate hasn't been spectacular. There isn't much trading here, which doesn't help. As a rule, he doesn't invest in companies this small. This will likely bounce in January. This stock isn't for everybody. He likes it more than before.
0
DON'T BUY
He didn't like it for a while, but now more than before. The telehealth space is getting crowded and they've had issues with CMS code. It's a good American company, though doesn't receive much attention here. VMS is merely okay. He prefers other names like Knight Therapeutics. It's a decent, second-tier company.
BUY
He missed this one totally. He shot up fast during the pandemic. They won new contracts and were driven by the e-shopping surge this year. Their debt is falling and earnings are rising which they're reporting better than expected. CJT is a unique company in Canada. It's old off lately as investors rotate and look past the pandemic. CJT has good years ahead of it.
Transportation & Environmental Services
DON'T BUY
They collect 96% of their rents and cash flow is decent. But in REITs, you have fair market adjustments in your properties; they had breakdowns in Edmonton, Calgary and less so in Regina. BEI has a lot of exposure to the energy patch, though their actual numbers are okay, because these write-downs are not cash (unless they sell a building at a loss). The worst is probably over, but he can't predict what will happen in the oil sector.
property mngmnt / investment
COMMENT
What would happen if Ottawa's Liberals get rid of the capital gains exemption? Wow, you hit a hot spot! Ottawa will be looking for tax revenues down the road (to pay for these Covid supports) and the safest, least political way will be charging people who've already made money. He doesn't expect Ottawa to do this short-term now during a pandemic, because it would trigger a lot of market selling and chaos. Also, this measure wouldn't bring in a lot of revenue, because an investor can just hold their stocks and wait for a new federal government to change the rules. Unfortunately, it's likely on its way.
Unknown
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