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Stock Opinions by Martin Cobb, ASIP

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COMMENT
US treasuries a problem.

Equities are starting to see competition from other asset classes, given the yield you can get on "risk-free" assets. A lot of the focus is short-term -- oil, inflation, etc. But the US government has a lot of debt. At the same time, demand seems to be weakening structurally for bonds.

We've had a weaponization of the US dollar. Whether it be sanctions on Russia, China, etc. Then there are all the tariff issues we've had with (supposed) allies of the US.

Central banks are wondering if they want to have that much tied up in US treasuries. They're still buying, but not at previous levels. At the same time, supply is booming with all the hyperscalers raising money. Demand/supply doesn't look great.

COMMENT
Outlook on AI.

It's something that's been grown, rather than crafted, so we don't know quite what it will look like in the end. In a conflict with two intelligent things, the one of far superior intelligence will win. 

At the beginning of the week, a number of prominent investors came out and said that we need to have guardrails to slow things down. If that leads to slightly lower growth and demand, it might end up not being a bubble that pops, but that growth gets normalized. And that could affect profitability across the whole sector.

BUY
Copper.

They're long-term investors. Whenever we talk about metals, it always seems to focus on the demand. For copper, demand seems fairly robust. The supply side is what makes him positive. Some institutions are talking about a major undersupply by 2035. It takes about 20 years to get a mine going.

Likes it over the long term. You could buy FCX, the heavyweight player. Also LUN or HBM in Canada, which are smaller and faster-growing. You might also consider an iShares ETF -- diversified, you don't have to worry about jurisdiction risk or individual mine risk.

COMMENT

Ongoing portfolio management is something management does, and they determined that selling assets recently was a way to unlock value. It's perfectly normal.

HOLD

Retail is a hard gig. Quality operator, very nice locations. Sales growth running ~30% for the past couple of years, but that will slow to some extent. Both his wife and his daughter can shop there and come home with something :)  Stock's not expensive. No obvious threats. 

Be mindful of your position size.

SELL

Would seem to be a steady, secular grower. Long-term demand for pilot training is increasing on both civil and defense sides. Business is much more variable for reasons than he can't understand.

DON'T BUY

Expects it to have very good growth for many years to come. (You won't get TSLA for free; there will be additional shares issued or some such arrangement.) Competition is way behind, but will increase. Chasm between the hyperbole and the numbers.

Not even close to being interested, even if valuation fell by half. TSLA had similar hype -- an idea that would come about in the future, with no competition, and it'll make "lots" of money (but margins are less than most car manufacturers).

BUY

Yes, he'd put new $$ in today. Buying stocks at 52-week highs isn't necessarily bad for your wealth (you'll actually do better than consistently buying at 52-week lows). Possible (but he can't say for sure) to retrace to mid-$50s if Iran war were to end.

On normalized oil prices, high single-digit FCF yield. Low-cost operator, decent production growth, strong balance sheet. Excellent capital allocation.

DON'T BUY

Their capacity is used only at the margin, whatever's leftover from other companies. Using borrowed money. Talk of Larry Ellison selling shares (subsequently walked back). Cheap, but he'd rather own GOOG, AMZN, or MSFT.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 11/25, Down 6%)

Nothing has changed for the business. Some interest is returning to the stock. He's been buying over the last year. Still looking at it as a 5-10 year hold.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 11/25, Down 4%)

No changes to the business that concern his team. Solid sales growth, bit of margin expansion. He's been buying over the past 12 months.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 11/25, Down 30%)

Concerns him. On a very short leash. Just because a stock's beaten up, doesn't mean it can't get even more beaten up. Margins are fairly stable. New management's trying to grow the business, rather than trying to buy back shares -- he doesn't approve. As well, other software names have become more attractive to investors.

BUY

Likes it. It's been volatile. He has no idea if it's going to pull back, but his firm's timeframes are multi-year. Hit by the SaaSpocalypse along with the rest. Not as cheap as it was, but not as expensive as a couple of years ago. Still a long-term compounder. 

About a 5% position for them, among 40 stocks, so above the average weight of 2.5%.

BUY

One of his larger positions, about 3-4% weighting. He can't predict what the stock's going to do (ask someone like Keith Richards for that ;)  Still likes it for the long term. All divisions are going in the right direction in terms of profitability and growth. 

WEAK BUY

There's lots of talk about spending infrastructure $$ in Canada, but it doesn't mean there will be. But the world is spending $$ on infrastructure, and BAM is a global company. Premier player. Likes it for the longer term.

His firm prefers and owns BN instead (despite its complexity), and BAM is a big chunk of that. 

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