Senior Wealth Advisor at ScotiaWealth Management
Member since: Oct '16 · 414 Opinions
Geopolitical conflict certainly adds volatility and, generally, October isn't the strongest month for investing. Factor those two things in with other economic data such as US non-farm payrolls tomorrow. He wouldn't be surprised if the runup over the last year takes a bit of a pause for maybe a month. Not expecting major declines, but can anticipate market trading sideways to slightly down.
Then late October/early November, the bull market will continue its run through the next 6-8 months or so.
That's it primarily. His view is that economic data will continue to come in weaker. A number of data points have been revised downward over the past few quarters. That will continue, sees further weakness in the economy. We're in one of those funny cycles now where bad economic news somehow means good news in the stock market. Lowering inflation expectations and interest rates will propel markets forward. He is starting to worry about late 2025 and into 2026.
But for the next 10 months or so, you might want to be invested a little more aggressively, to take advantage of what should be a continuation of market strength.
For the last 6 months, he's leaned into the AI, tech-driven themes. That said, there's always going to be movement between growth and value. At different times, value and interest-rate sensitives will have their day in the sun.
His overall view is that growth-focused securities will primarily drive the market going forward. Any short-term pullback on core names such as NVDA or mega-cap tech is a buying opportunity. Doesn't mean you can't have other things in your portfolio, as diversification is always an important factor.
But if he was choosing one sector to ride for the next 6 months or so, it would definitely be the more tech-focused sector.
An income play, using leverage and covered calls. Always be cautious using leverage. Leverage to the upside is great, to the downside it hurts a bit more. Income generated is very strong.
These strategies can work very well if you're less concerned about capital appreciation and more about income. Geared to work well in a sideways or down market. These products are popular, but he doesn't use them. Know what you're getting into.
There's another Hamilton ETF that isn't as levered. Its distribution is about half of HCAL, but performance has been significantly better. In an upward market, you want more exposure to the underlying bank stocks.
He's neutral. A bit of jockeying for place lately. Some of the stronger performers like RY and NA have cooled down a little. Some of the laggards such as BNS and BMO are seeing their day in the sun. As you collect your dividends, should see 8-9% total return.
His preference on price and valuation. A laggard that's seeing its day in the sun. He's neutral on the Canadian banks as a whole.
Recent sale of MLSE will generate significant cash windfall. Comes at a good time, with concerns about debt load. Debt rating was cut. Traditionally owned for the dividend, so a cut would be a last resort. That said, you still need strong cashflows to pay that dividend while servicing your debt.
Not super-high on his list of Canadian stocks to own, but he does understand income needs. Rate cuts should propel stock forward. Not a terrible stock, but he'd look elsewhere.
Has only a bit of exposure, not a major amount. He's noticed that analyst price targets have started to come down, due to the South Bow spinoff. He doesn't know enough about the spinoff to be able to make a recommendation.
Almost like a utility. Pipelines are not getting a lot of new approvals. Like the rails, what's there is there. Strong market position, but where is the growth going to come from? M&As can dilute shares and add debt. Well run, pretty steady. He'd be comfortable holding. Not huge upside, but some; income potential.
He doesn't know enough about the spinoff to be able to make a recommendation. Yield is 9%.
As a DIY investor, it's really hard to get access to the best-quality bonds. The fund managers get the pick of the litter before whatever's left gets to the retail channel. Generally if you buy them on the secondary market, you're buying at a premium.
He'd be comfortable owning bond funds through ETF structures such as XCB or XLB on the TSX. There are a lot of bond mutual funds but he doesn't see a lot of value there, especially with a big fee overlay.
As a DIY investor, it's really hard to get access to the best-quality bonds. Generally if you buy them on the secondary market, you're buying at a premium. He'd be comfortable owning bond funds through ETF structures such as XCB or XLB on the TSX.
As a DIY investor, it's really hard to get access to the best-quality bonds. Generally if you buy them on the secondary market, you're buying at a premium. He'd be comfortable owning bond funds through ETF structures such as XCB or XLB on the TSX.
Pretty core Canadian holding for energy exposure in a growth or dividend portfolio. Great company, well run. Moves in cycles with energy. Energy's popped now with geopolitical tensions. His research sees potential drop in oil price. Good hold, pretty good run. Better opportunities elsewhere for new capital.
Leverage and covered calls to generate income. The utility trade has already happened with lowering interest rates, so further capital appreciation is limited. Know why you're owning it.
Less risk in ETFs, so you could pick some different sectors for a weighting of 10%.
Great run, and that's when you have to be careful that you're not chasing a stock at its highs. Could pull back. If you look at a chart, sometimes you see an upward trajectory and then a major push up at the tail end ("too good to be true"). And that's where this stock is.
He has no problem owning, stock's in the right sector, but would want to buy at 10-15% discount from today.