Shopify Inc.SHOP.TODON'T BUYFeb 12, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 13, 2026. Market Open.
200-day MA starting to trend a bit lower, price is also below that. High multiple at 60x forward PE, though growth rate is strong, but PEG a bit rich at around 2x. Leaves little room for error. Caters to economically sensitive small-middle companies. AI is both opportunity and risk.
Better opportunities elsewhere.
Are different: CSU buys companies vs. Shopify which is a pure tech company. What PE do you want to pay for CSU? 25x? 20x? SHOP is great and continues to grow. The market perception of AI hurting these companies is wrong. Both are worth buying. He prefers CSU but buy it at a lower PE.
Has never owned. 200-day MA just started to roll over, and that's not positive. Price now below 200-day MA. It's always been pricey (9x forward price-to-sales). Tech and general market have been up, but this name's down 4.3% over 12 months. Catering to small-middle businesses makes it riskier vis-a-vis the economy.
If you're already in it, watch to see if it breaks recent lows of support. So many other names out there with much better valuations.
Still some runway. Tarred with the software brush. A proud Canadian all-star. Buy in 3 tranches: here, ~$105, and ~$100 (that would indicate it's getting to the bottom). If you own now, add on weakness as outlined.
Note: Not in his fund, but in some separately managed accounts.
Right here, right now is a good entry point for a long-term hold. Part of the AI witch-hunt trade. Competitive moat won't be eroded by agentic AI. People don't understand that writing code is not "one and done", not to mention cybersecurity concerns and complex payment systems.
Increasingly catering to larger customers. Continues to innovate and to add value to legacy markets.
For money managers looking for GARP (growth at a reasonable price), this name has always had valuation issues. Despite EPS expectations of 30+%, you're paying a lot for it. Current PE is 75x, forward PE is 57-58x. Price-to-sales is almost 10x going forward. Beta is 2x the TSX. In the US, many names are cheaper by PEG ratio.
Caters to small- and medium-sized businesses, so you have to keep an eye out for that. Those businesses tend to be more volatile at the end of the business cycle and, indeed, may not survive.
Usually a decent trading name, but now price is below 200-day MA (which is still trending higher, which is good). Watch out if it breaks to the downside of that. Though doesn't suffer from the AI scare, part of the broader rotation away from tech.