NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

They had a wonderful earnings call yesterday. Their torrid growth won't last forever, but it's the best performer of the last 2 years. With CEO Huang at the helm for so long, NVDA will continue to run far. NVDA is over-discussed though. Don't sell it. They keep executing in revenues and sales, raising guidance.

No, market didn't break. Expectations were on both sides of the option plays. Market is content with what it saw. Everyone wants to see better than just a beat, wants to see a strong beat. The concern is do we see deceleration in growth momentum at some point. We'll see a bit more growth out of NVDA before concerns about it stalling.

The fact that we got out of that initial jolt after the release suggests that this market has some strength and confidence behind it. This could play to a number of factors such as where interest rates and policy are going. Markets are in decent shape right now.

The report will set the tone for overall market risk for the coming days. It could fall due to extreme bullishness. Can other areas pick up inflows from the money market and bonds. AI stocks are rattled now give SMCI, down 26%, with some skepticism. If NVDA doesn't miss, it goes higher. He wants to hear if there's strong demand for the H200 chip or any missteps with Blackwell.

King of the infrastructure, and many reasons for that. By 2027, revenue should grow to $196B from $24B in 2022. They led with the chip, fiddled with the building and packaging of it. Over the last year, they've really incorporated a lot of software into the chip. That makes it even more difficult for the likes of AMD or INTC to catch up.

Stock's no more expensive then it was back in 2022. If earnings continue to grow, interest rates continue to come down, and the macro environment is still positive, you have to own it.

He will focus on what happens with the aftermath of the report. If NVDA misses, it will drag all AI and tech stocks down, but will there be appetite to then buy or keep selling? More likely the street will take profits and the focus will shift to whether the Fed cuts 25 or 50 basis point in interest rates.

Options are spot-on: shares will swing 10% either way after the report. A year, full-year revenues were 13% and now it's expected at 28%. There will be an immediate move off the print, but the durable move will be on the earnings call. She expects incredible numbers. If they raise guidance, big tech names will continue to spend on their chips.

Obviously, there will be a beat and raise, but it's about the magnitude of that beat and raise and guidance. What will they say about capex spending by other companies and the ecosystem. MSFT already announced a significant capex for 2025 of $80 billion. The highway leads to Nvidia.

Forecasting NVDA's movement after it reports late Tuesday, based on calls and puts, the share price will swing 11% either way from today's price. That straddle position is the risk that they market makers are willing to sell those calls or puts. Looking at the NVDA chart a year ago: shares ran up to earnings, followed by a sell-off for a couple of weeks. Also, we had a big move up in the price target after beating earnings. The next report: share ran up again, NVDA beat earnings, rallied for 2 weeks to the one-year forward price, then fell and went sideways to its breakout point. The last time, it rallied to a new high, a big beat, rallied a couple weeks, then another correction. Considering the price target now at $140 and 47x PE, we'll likely see selling into the quarter. Also, there's no support 11% lower, but at the rising 200-day average of $95ish. 

He's glad it's been declining ahead of reporting tomorrow, so it has a chance to go higher.

They report after the bell Wednesday. He keeps saying: own it, don't trade it. He agrees with an analyst from Melius who says the key to the report is hearing CEO Huang talk about the Rockwell product cycle for next year and Rubem for Calendar 2026 to signal that NVDA is just getting started in AI. This is the key, and will allow NVDA to be bought on any dip. He expects a good quarter and if they deliver another huge beat, it could push shares higher, but he's more in the camp of a pullback. Everyone owns this already. Long term, he believes in Nvidia.

They report Tuesday. Has held it for 5 years. Could be very volatile either way after the report. NVDA can continue to grow 5 years at 30%. If it comes anywhere near that, shares will move higher.

They report Tuesday. She'd be surprised if their numbers weren't great. In all recent calls, the hyperscalers announce they are increasing capex in AI. Also, AMD has great numbers and confirmed this continued spend that NVDA probably will. She expects NVDA to have a massive beat and guide higher. She would be shocked if they didn't.

They report Tuesday. Expectations are high. He expects 100% or more in revenue and 130% in earnings. It's entirely possible that they report 132% and not 137% and the market responds by slashing 10% of the share price. NVDA is highly sensitive in the short term, but NVDA has reported 6 straight quarters of sales and earnings beats and raised guidance every time. markets have been waiting for this company to have a misstep, so if you've been waiting for this the past 6 quarters, it has not been fun seeing shares go higher. NVDA is entering the report 9% off its highs and as much as 27% recently. The stakes are high for the overall market. Their big customers--Microsoft and Meta--none of them in their conference calls announced they were cutting AI chip spending. None. They are the ones to listen to. He wouldn't buy NVDA now, though.

Watch closely - commodity product can be difficult to sustain gains.  Would sell on strength - keep portfolio weight appropriate. Very high valuation also a concern. 

Everyone's watching with bated breath for next week's earnings. Habit of issuing guidance they can easily surpass. Focus on capex, use that to make inferences about other companies in the ecosystem. Big thing will be guidance for the next quarter.

Momentum is great now, but what it does after will hinge closely on guidance.