NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

All paths lead back to NVDA: the power centres and grid. Have great free cash flow. It's hard to fight this stock, that it's gone up too much. Still is a great opportunity.

Key takeaway is that this chart continues to work. Long-term uptrend, with no signs that it's broken down. But we are seeing early signs that this big thrust upward we've seen is stalling.

Though the rally is broadening, tech must participate for the rally to go higher though doesn't have to lead. In the last 3 months, NVDA's chart is forming a bullish consolidation pattern as the 13-, 26- and 40-month moving averages converge. If it breaks above its June high, NVDA can break out. it has support under $120. If it breaks above $140.76, it can rise to $177.

Leader. Just when you think it's getting expensive on a PE basis, the earnings go up. Sees pretty strong earnings growth at over 40% over next few years. 39-40x PE, which is not expensive given the growth. Remember that the semi industry is highly cyclical. Great times now, but the tough times will eventually show up.

Be careful at $140, as that's where a recent top was. As well, over the years he's noticed that the time to be careful is when far too many people are interested in a stock. Might be priced for perfection. 

Right now, looks extended. Pushing up against resistance, but seeing a reverse double bottom pattern, projecting to about $180. That's longer term. On a weekly basis, just starting a breakout. 

For seasonal entry, look at equityclock.com, run by a portfolio manager who works for his firm. All the chips are coming into a buy season right about now. For new money, this is one area to pick away at.

It's a rising tide that lifts all customers' boats: in robots, healthcare, climate, industrial and so on. Their AI chips go into so many companies and industries--demand is strong--and they have no real competition. Is run by a genius CEO.

Both are good. RCL is s good play on the consumers. Shares are up 35% this year. NVDA: he just heard from demand for their Blackwell is insane.

Keep a position in it, but remember its risk profile. Not expensive valuation, but fundamental revenue growth and margin expectation will be under scrutiny as they move from Hopper to Blackwell. Are revenues durable? Expect 20-30% volatility in share price.

He thinks it is fully valued with the growth priced in. The chip record can be cyclical and there could be a glut of GPU's, probably not next year but in 3 to 5 years.

What's not to like, but how long will it last? Some say a few years, others we're near peak demand. Look at price: 50x PE and 35x forward PE, assuming it reaches growth projections. Eventually, this will normalize, but doesn't know when. He owns a little, but uses options.

The question was on Semi conductors and his favourite in this area. This is a cyclical space but it still has so much ahead of it. His favourite is Nvidia and he just bought more at about $100. At 30X 2025 P/E it is OK for a stock growing at 40% to 2028. It is buying back $50 billion in stock.

Growth continues very strong. Great to buy closer to the 200-day MA, which is around $90. Chart is showing a series of lower highs, peaking out in June. Is it just becoming another mainstream name? It's not really a contrarian name at this point.