NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Forecasting NVDA's movement after it reports late Tuesday, based on calls and puts, the share price will swing 11% either way from today's price. That straddle position is the risk that they market makers are willing to sell those calls or puts. Looking at the NVDA chart a year ago: shares ran up to earnings, followed by a sell-off for a couple of weeks. Also, we had a big move up in the price target after beating earnings. The next report: share ran up again, NVDA beat earnings, rallied for 2 weeks to the one-year forward price, then fell and went sideways to its breakout point. The last time, it rallied to a new high, a big beat, rallied a couple weeks, then another correction. Considering the price target now at $140 and 47x PE, we'll likely see selling into the quarter. Also, there's no support 11% lower, but at the rising 200-day average of $95ish. 

He's glad it's been declining ahead of reporting tomorrow, so it has a chance to go higher.

They report after the bell Wednesday. He keeps saying: own it, don't trade it. He agrees with an analyst from Melius who says the key to the report is hearing CEO Huang talk about the Rockwell product cycle for next year and Rubem for Calendar 2026 to signal that NVDA is just getting started in AI. This is the key, and will allow NVDA to be bought on any dip. He expects a good quarter and if they deliver another huge beat, it could push shares higher, but he's more in the camp of a pullback. Everyone owns this already. Long term, he believes in Nvidia.

They report Tuesday. Has held it for 5 years. Could be very volatile either way after the report. NVDA can continue to grow 5 years at 30%. If it comes anywhere near that, shares will move higher.

They report Tuesday. She'd be surprised if their numbers weren't great. In all recent calls, the hyperscalers announce they are increasing capex in AI. Also, AMD has great numbers and confirmed this continued spend that NVDA probably will. She expects NVDA to have a massive beat and guide higher. She would be shocked if they didn't.

They report Tuesday. Expectations are high. He expects 100% or more in revenue and 130% in earnings. It's entirely possible that they report 132% and not 137% and the market responds by slashing 10% of the share price. NVDA is highly sensitive in the short term, but NVDA has reported 6 straight quarters of sales and earnings beats and raised guidance every time. markets have been waiting for this company to have a misstep, so if you've been waiting for this the past 6 quarters, it has not been fun seeing shares go higher. NVDA is entering the report 9% off its highs and as much as 27% recently. The stakes are high for the overall market. Their big customers--Microsoft and Meta--none of them in their conference calls announced they were cutting AI chip spending. None. They are the ones to listen to. He wouldn't buy NVDA now, though.

Watch closely - commodity product can be difficult to sustain gains.  Would sell on strength - keep portfolio weight appropriate. Very high valuation also a concern. 

Everyone's watching with bated breath for next week's earnings. Habit of issuing guidance they can easily surpass. Focus on capex, use that to make inferences about other companies in the ecosystem. Big thing will be guidance for the next quarter.

Momentum is great now, but what it does after will hinge closely on guidance.

He wouldn't bet against their earnings next week, but Nvidia is the biggest risk to the market now.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy rating today, a week before NVDA earnings. Shares rallied 4.35% today. He'd like to take profits, but will hold off. NVDA is an amazing operator.

Leader in the space, but expensive valuation. Must be willing to hold long term. Would recommend buying on pullbacks. 

Is up 35% since the dip two weeks ago. NVDA is its own casino. Look at weekly options volumes (billions). The best thing is not to get carried away when this stock lurches higher or lower.

He'd say take a small swing. It's been on a roll. All the big guys say they can't get enough chips, so demand will be there this quarter. This quarter will be good. When the AI bubble bursts, this will be first to go. 2-3 more years in this stock.

On the recent pullback, he bought half a position, because he sees downside to the risk. On the pullback, NVDA's PE fell close to the level he wanted. It is one of the highest-quality tech margins, generating enormous free cash flow, 78% gross margins, 65% operating margins, no debt and capex is only 1% of sales.

Based on three previous dips in Dec. 2018, Q1-2020 and 2022, a two-day trend is not a sell-off. In 2022, NVDA corrected 70%. There's a lot going on geopolitically, namely the US election, so wait and see. The problem with NVDA is it's heavily traded--everybody loves. AMD is safer with less volatility. For a trade, buy NVDA on a dip, but he's sitting on both names now, waiting.