NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

Right now, looks extended. Pushing up against resistance, but seeing a reverse double bottom pattern, projecting to about $180. That's longer term. On a weekly basis, just starting a breakout. 

For seasonal entry, look at equityclock.com, run by a portfolio manager who works for his firm. All the chips are coming into a buy season right about now. For new money, this is one area to pick away at.

It's a rising tide that lifts all customers' boats: in robots, healthcare, climate, industrial and so on. Their AI chips go into so many companies and industries--demand is strong--and they have no real competition. Is run by a genius CEO.

Both are good. RCL is s good play on the consumers. Shares are up 35% this year. NVDA: he just heard from demand for their Blackwell is insane.

Keep a position in it, but remember its risk profile. Not expensive valuation, but fundamental revenue growth and margin expectation will be under scrutiny as they move from Hopper to Blackwell. Are revenues durable? Expect 20-30% volatility in share price.

He thinks it is fully valued with the growth priced in. The chip record can be cyclical and there could be a glut of GPU's, probably not next year but in 3 to 5 years.

What's not to like, but how long will it last? Some say a few years, others we're near peak demand. Look at price: 50x PE and 35x forward PE, assuming it reaches growth projections. Eventually, this will normalize, but doesn't know when. He owns a little, but uses options.

The question was on Semi conductors and his favourite in this area. This is a cyclical space but it still has so much ahead of it. His favourite is Nvidia and he just bought more at about $100. At 30X 2025 P/E it is OK for a stock growing at 40% to 2028. It is buying back $50 billion in stock.

Growth continues very strong. Great to buy closer to the 200-day MA, which is around $90. Chart is showing a series of lower highs, peaking out in June. Is it just becoming another mainstream name? It's not really a contrarian name at this point.

There's a secular tailwind for this tech spending. The die is cast. It will keep going for the time being. The best sub-sector in the S&P today are semis and NVDA is the 7th-best performer. The spending is happening. NVDA is the default play.

The big question is whether to look for an entry point and whether to hang on or take some profits. Insiders are finally deciding to to sell. 46% of revenue comes from 4 companies which have ramped up spending on AI - will they be able to sustain the spending. The new Blackwell chip is 4 times more powerful. At some point will customers be satisfied with chips as they are and not want even better ones.

The PE has fallen and is now appropriately priced.

The semis will become cyclical. Future EPS growth is expected to be 28%. He doesn't see that growth in 2028, though in 2025. Why? Customers can't get enough of NVDA's AI chips. So, customers are now over-ordering, and eventually supply will catch up, and orders will be cut back. But for the next few quarters, this won't happen to NVDA. NVDA is absolutely a buy now.