CEO at Ritholtz Wealth Management
Member since: Dec '21 · 103 Opinions
Streamers, including DIS, will work in 2025, unlike in previous years.
Buy on this pullback. This was down 13% in 2022, and 2% in 2023 and another 2% this year. It's rare for SBUX to be down three straight years. We'll know when they report Jan. 28 if the turnaround is working. They will do $1 billion in revenue, -1% YOY, $1.12 billion in EBIT or -23% YOY. Analyst expectations are very low. Shares are trading at their 10-year median valuation. They just hired the best QSR CEO who will turn things around. At $80-65, he will add a lot more shares.
It boasts five straight quarters of triple-digit earnings growth. The stock continues to strengthen. They last guided $32 billion on data centre revenue vs. the street's $31.7 billon. If they come in above their guidance, this stock should be okay. But remember that NVDA has a history of sharp drawdowns even when they report a beat. Last August, it fell on a very short bear market. Be aware of that. You must accept that volatility.
Live sports iS the final frontier for them (the upcoming Mike Tyson fight NFLX will stream). The Tyson fight holds big potential for NFLX.
How much are expectations already built into the stock? In the past year, it has grown its EPS by 415% and sales by 195%. Investors have gotten used to this eye-popping growth, so he can't understand where future growth will come from. We know there's a global push to use AI, so who's left? It's unlikely past huge gains will happen again, though modest gains can still occur.
Wait next week for their report to hear about their AI initiatives, which will be available only in English. So, overseas markets will be less excited. It will be a slow, underwhelming iPhone upgrade cycle. He notices that customers are buying the high-margin iPhone Pro Max phone--upgraders prefer the bigger, better phone. At 23x 2025 adjusted EBITDA, Apple is not cheap, above the average of 20x. Again, watch for the AI report.
Among next week's tech reports, he's most excited about Amazon, because the doubt on this stock is overdone. This could soar on a good report.
Among next week's tech reports, he's most excited about Amazon, because the doubt on this stock is overdone. This could soar on a good report.
Of next week's tech reports, he's most worried about Alphabet, a long-time holding. The stock is behaving terrible, especially compared to Meta. GOOG must convince the street that the ads on Gemini AI search will be at least profitable as internet search. Also, Perplexity is a serious competitor.
Energy has been the worst sector, but now it's the cheapest at 10x price to free cash flow and 12x PE. The median return in S&P energy is -3% vs. 30% for all S&P. 54% of IEO's names are negative, but he predicts some will be discovered this quarter. Problem is WTI is up 1% this year at $71. When WTI moves up, so will these stocks.
Looks like it will take out last week's high. Something's going on. Looks good.
They need to innovate. Lines such as the Jordans aren't selling like they used to. They're not innovating. Their biggest celebrity athletes are aging, like LeBron and Kevin Durant--do kids want their shoes. They trade at a high 25x PE for no growth.
The new CEO is making big, strategic deals behind the scenes. He expects something with the Near-Field communication chip. Pay with Venmo is a plus. This continues to make 52-week highs that nobody is paying attention to. He's sticking with it.
As long as the CEO continues to execute, the stock will be fine. However, before he was dismayed to watch GS get into ill-fated consumer finance, so it's important they are mostly exiting these businesses and returning to what they DO best: IPOs, capital markets and trading. Technically, it's not good: an RSI of 36 and is partially oversold. It broke the rising 50-day moving average last week. There should be support around $426-430 and would look at it then as a trade but not an investment.
He stopped out of this last May. He pounced in 2022 when it was selling off. He probably should have kept it. Problem is, a lot of positives are baked into the valuation. It's growing revenue this year faster than in any other. It's the second-best year for subscriber growth. Trades at 40x PE. It's a media/ad business. NFLX has all the momentum in the world. This and DIS will work. Streaming will work in 2025, unlike in previous years.