Richard Fogler

He holds stocks for the long term and is not overly concerned about short term developments in the world caused by Trump, war, etc. This includes changes in the economy. Every five years we will go through a bear market. He just holds through it. When asked about the indicators of a technical recession, he sees it as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. We have had five years of negative GDP growth per capita and that is what matters to people. We have to get the economy back kicking. The US accounts for 20% of our GDP growth so the fighting and competition with them means we're going backwards.

Stocks he doesn't own he doesn't know as well. Oracle is transforming itself into an AI powerhouse - $50 billion spent on Capex this year compared to less than $25 billion last year. It is changing its stripes completely so if this doesn't work, it will be in trouble.

He has owned it for 12 years and hasn't sold any. The institutional part has grown as much as it can but the big companies are growing 15 to 20%. The retail business is potentially bigger than the institutional business with brand names catching a bigger share. Private credit may have had trouble but should be OK.

It has recovered from the money laundering scandal and owns the 6th largest bank in the US which has grown from nothing 15 years ago. The restrictions in the US are not all that difficult. He thinks US banks will continue to do well and dividends in Canadian banks will keep rising.. TD is still cheaper than other banks.

The caller is a recent retiree who is considering increasing her cash position from 20% to 50% because of the possibility of recession and market drawdown. He feels that savings interest rates don't keep pace with inflation so your capital will be eroded. You can't predict recessions or the bottom of the market. Long term charts go up and to the right so get on that line. The average setback has been 11 months and happens every 4 to 5 years.. He has seen five bear markets in 40 years as well as some blips.

He still likes it and the private equity business. Also if you add up all the publicly owned companies it has, you get a stock price valued at $65. But it also has a massive real estate portfolio which has done well in the past six months, so you now have a stock worth $90 trading at $60. Has highest quality office buildings, great management, and value.

There is an offer to buy it from GFL International. Secure should have got a higher price but you get 80% in GFL stock so it's OK.

It is in the infrastructure business and spun off one of the biggest cement companies in the world with the CEO becoming the CEO of Amrize. He also bought $100 million in stock with his own money. There are lots of things to do to clean up profitability and lots of opportunity for re-investment. They don't have to ship a lot of money off to head office. It should be a big winner and the infra-structure space in general should be a big winner.

It has a high valuation with free cash flow of $1.30. The construction business is volatile and backlogs can change with a slowdown. They say their margins are going up 80% next year but margins are 67% in the industry in general so he is not betting on outsized margins.

It picks up garbage, municipal and business. Has a good long term business model with good cash flow. Its core business is doing well and it recently bought Secure which fits well, is accretive, and generates lots of cash. They own 70% of the market and have great management. There is lots of opportunity to consolidate the market and he is looking for a double.

The software business has been pummeled and trades at a very reasonable valuation. It is still growing 20%. It owns Copilot - most businesses use it and have to go through it to get to another system. It has a huge embedded data base in almost every company. They have agreed to drop the software dispute with Open AI but he is not concerned by this. We are at a very early stage of AI. It is moving very quickly and nobody knows how it will actually evolve. He uses it and finds it very helpful. 

It has outperformed its guidance for the last six quarters and we should see pretty good numbers in the next quarter.

It is the best of the banks. Jamie Dimon who runs it is the best banker in the world and a major shareholder. It trades at a high multiple but with a 20%+ ROC it earns it. He has owned for 15 years. Headwinds would be an economic slowdown and Jamie getting older with the possibility of retiring.

He likes it a lot. It is very well run and provides needed services with positive trends happening for these services. It has a big outpatient component which he uses himself.

It owns the Montreal exchange, other trading platforms and the software that supports them. It has a unique position in the financial industry. He considers it not a trading platform but a toll road. It made a recent acquisition of CBOE Canada and Australia. CBOE Canada is the only alternative trading platform not owned by TMX. The TSX and Venture own nearly 50 % of all mining listings in the world and the second largest is Australia. Together they are a mining powerhouse. It has been around since its IPO in 2003 at $3.50.          Buy 6  Hold 2  Sell 0