Richard Fogler

Widespread talk about that market being overpriced at 25x PE. If you pull out the Magnificent 7, the less-magnificent 493 are trading at 16.6x PE and that's not a lot. It's below the average of the last 20 years. 

His team buys 25 stocks in the US, so he doesn't really care about the market per se except for the beta part of it. He looks for companies that are quite cheap, and he's found some.

He looks only at companies that are fundamentally sound, with businesses that will substantially increase in value over the next number of years. Looks for catalysts that aren't yet recognized in the stock price, so they're cheap on certain metrics. His team's view would be different than the consensus view.

That strategy works well over time, and it works well in slowdowns.

Chart's quite volatile. Currently paying out a high proportion of cashflow to cover the dividend. So it's not reinvesting substantially in the business. Making acquisitions, but revenue hasn't changed one iota.

In the hot part of the market. Momentum of the business is decidedly positive. Not cheap, but the return has been great. His firm doesn't buy at high prices, because when there's a hiccup (which you can't forecast) it can turn into pneumonia. That's the risk.

New CEO in 2017 vowed to increase profitability, and it's materialized in operating margins, earnings, and cashflow. Thinks that will continue. Rapidly getting into self-driving, which apparently will dominate the space over the next number of years. Stock has a long way to go over next 5 years.

Trades at 176x PE, not exactly bargain basement. Musk's antics in politics have turned non-Americans away. EV sales in general have stalled. He saw a BYD vehicle in France, and it's way more beautiful than a Tesla and 2/3 the price. Lots of competition. Musk's compensation demands are egregious.

Good company, well managed. Doing well, and that should continue. High beta stock, will return 25% more than the market does on the upside (yay), but 25% or more on the downside (boo). So it's a call on the market.

Underperformed peers last 2 years, but has caught up some since US mess put to bed. New management seems really good. New strategy to be laid out on September 29th investor day. Despite cap, still lots of opportunity in US.

He's owned this one for 10 years. Private equity has cooled off in the last little while, but that's just noise. The good businesses are growing dramatically. Added insurance, a huge growth business. US has just approved private equity in 401(k) accounts, a $13T market of which private equity is only 1% (but could rise to 5-7% over time).

If he's holding something, it means he'd still buy it today. Sold one business last year, generated lots of cash to bring finances in line. Lots of cashflow to reinvest in the business. Expects strong profitability over next few years, with 20% for at least next 3 years.

(Taken private 12 August 2025.)

Likes companies with recurring and predictable cashflows. Very volatile business, and you can see this in a long-term chart. Too tough to predict. You only need to own a few stocks, so you might as well own those you can predict with some degree of certainty.

Investment in KEY is just that, an investment, not control. That's not a positive. Look elsewhere. Prefers TD or RY. 

If true that economy's slowing, then people trade down and this name will do better than average. Over time, economy will grow. Has been a superb company. Extraordinarily well-managed. Doesn't own because always too expensive.