Richard Fogler

Here's his contrarian view...there is no trade war. It's just Trump mouthing off. He's said he's going to do some things, various people have responded, not much has happened, just a lot of talk. All this has seriously impacted the GDP numbers. 

The business and consumer sectors are OK in the US, but the import sector was terrible. Consequently, there was a slight decline in the GDP number. While bad, it was mostly because people were pre-buying and importing prior to tariffs. Trump kills the tariffs, makes deals, all that stuff goes away.

The big thing is that the response to his "trade war" has been universally bad -- to the MAGA people, to consumers, to businesses, to investors. (If there's any other group that he missed, it's universally bad to them too.) So the expectation is that he's going to have to correct it. Trump's people have announced that the next 100 days will be about trade deals and tax breaks. No matter what happens, Trump will declare he made the best deal ever.

For some reason, Trump hated Trudeau and, apparently, likes Carney. If you look at per capita GDP for the US vs. Canada, from 1990 to 2015, the lines are right on top of each other. Absolutely identical. From 2015, they start to diverge. 

Increase in per capita GDP for Canada since then has been 1.1%, not per year but total. In the US it's 52%. The difference is due to Canadian policy. This is not lost on anybody, including the new prime minister. Richard expects that economic policy and economic growth will be his #1 agenda item and that they will fix this. He's really positive on Canada because he thinks that's going to happen.

Got crushed at the start of the year. Current share price not very expensive. Dynamic US business. Really good CEO. As long as you take a multi-year view, doesn't see how you can possibly go wrong.

The consumer-related companies are taking it on the chin, so AMZN's retail side is taking a hit. Cloud business is great. Imports all its goods, and can more easily switch to importing from countries other than China. He's not buying much of anything now, but if he were, he'd probably pick this one.

The consumer-related companies are taking it on the chin. In transition -- can they produce in the US or not? From  what he understands, moving manufacturing to the States would increase the cost of products dramatically. Getting crushed in China from competition. Tougher to change course.

AMZN's retail side is taking a bit of a hit. Cloud business is great. Imports all its goods, and can more easily switch to importing from countries other than China. He's not buying much of anything now, but if he were, he'd probably pick this one.

The insurance business, in general, is not expanding dramatically. You get the nice dividend, which means they're not investing in the business. And they don't invest in the business because there's really nowhere to put their money for a high ROIC. Highly regulated, higher interest rates have a negative impact.

For him, the dividend is not a reason to buy things. Doing a good job, but there are better places to invest in financial services.

Great business, great management. Expensive. Off his radar unless the price changed a lot. Seven & I deal is great if they can do it. These guys are big, and he likes companies where there's lots of market opportunity ahead.

Cashflow does not cover dividend, and that's why there's talk of cutting it. Personally, he feels they'll never cut it, since most people who own it are looking for dividends. Better opportunities elsewhere.

Strong balance sheet, buying smaller businesses. Has an opportunity in front of them that the likes of MFC do not. 

Real estate business has been horrible for the last couple of years. Only area that's been good has been industrial mostly pushed by BX, which has been buying everything in sight. Condo business in Toronto is dead. People are moving back into offices, thinks it will catch up in Toronto (which has been slow up till now).

Most REITs in Canada exist because they pay a dividend, their businesses aren't really growing or developing. He'd stay away from most.

Really likes. Only part of the office space that's any good is luxury. For example, high end in New York is booming. Allied owns buildings that are top level and edgy. Huge conglomerate, giving tenants lots of choice. Unique position. Wonderful development opportunities.

Good business, solid financials, great properties, stock's cheap. Dividend's not hugely well covered, but it is covered; doesn't think it will be cut.

Growing at 20% a year. Earnings next week, and he expects they'll be up another 5%. Expects the good run to continue for quite a while. He's owned it for over 10 years.

Wonderful business run by really good people. Recurring cashflows. Trades at lower multiple than major competitors and growing faster. Lots of chances to improve operations.

Taken out at $32.

Tariffs will hurt the US consumer. Canada has decided not to let the US consumer suffer alone, so has put tariffs on too. His training is in economics, trained by very smart people who believe in free trade. This is all ridiculous. Peter Navarro sounds like the dumbest person he's ever heard; everything he says is crazy. Trump's making a big mistake.

Everybody says that these are negotiating ploys. The stock market and individuals have shown that it's not been a positive response to Trump's tariffs. Richard feels that Trump will start announcing deals, and it's all going to go away.

For the last 75 years, since WW2, manufacturing in every industrial nation in the world has declined as a percentage of GDP, while services have increased. The US economy has been the envy of the world for the last 5 years, and Trump just turned a great economy into one with lower GDP for the first time in 7 years.

It's all backwards. Manufacturing isn't coming back to the US, because US workers get $25/hour while Chinese workers get $2-4. You don't need to be a genius to decide where to buy stuff from.