Mark Sebastian Nutrien Ltd. NTR-T TRADE Sep 23, 2024

Stock's come back on relief from tariffs. Globally, demand for agriculture and fertilizer continues. Well positioned. Be aware that this name will be choppy, as we're not out of the tariff woods yet. More of a speculative play.

Seeking new West Coast terminal to export more potash. Prices are just starting to trend a bit higher, which means demand is starting to pick up and supply is going down. Long term, warmer temperatures will mean growing seasons will be more difficult, so fertilizer demand should continue to rise. Yield is 3%.

Understand that commodity prices are always volatile in the short term. Up 27% YTD, 15% over 5 years, but 10 years has been 6%, 15 years has been 10%. So total return over time should be 5-10%. He doesn't offer price targets. 

Definitely putting in a major low. Highlighting this quite frequently to clients over the last couple of months. His fundamental analyst is highlighting this as well. Broke the bigger multi-year downtrend from 2022. Lots of institutional buying. Its peer in the States, MOS, is showing the same pattern.

Within the chemicals space, the fertilizer stocks are much more interesting and have a better technical setup. Recently bought this name. Commodity-oriented space is continuing to firm up. Very long-term base going back to 2016 is being tested, with higher lows.

(A Top Pick May 22/25, Up 0.45%)

Commodities in coming years should outperform financial assets. Look at gold and uranium. He likes potash. The chart was terrible for a long time, then based, and is recently breaking out.

Bumpy. Q2 is a crucial selling season for them, and supply/demand dynamics in potash will be key. Reintroduced it to portfolios in January this year. Fertilizer cycle has bottomed and is slowly turning up. Vertically integrated with downstream farm supply stores. Operational improvement in South America to improve margins.

Trading at half of peak value of 3 years ago. Lots of upside.

Same play as ADM: has been reversing a long-term downtrend and recently has been moving up. Investors who had ignored this are now coming back.

Should be affected by tariffs, but it's actually not because of its Canadian and US standalone businesses. Inexpensive. Capital intensive, so the rate of return is not as high as he'd like. Agriculture seems to be working its way out of a funk.

Likes it, as well as its US counterpart MOS. Part of his bias toward commodities. Downtrend ended, rounded bottom, now forming a neckline. Trying to break out; hasn't yet, but chart and fundamentals are set up to do so. Could get quite a bit higher, but you have to be patient (it's a commodity, and there's a cycle at work).

World's largest crop nutrient business. Upstream production vertically integrated with downstream stores (in US, Canada, and some in South America). Commodity prices for the 3 fertilizer ingredients has bottomed, supported by steadily improving prices for major cash crops (corn, wheat, soybeans). 

Trades roughly at long-term average multiple. Earnings on cusp of a turning point. Dividend's increased 36% since merger in 2018, plus reduced outstanding shares by 23% since then. Yield 3.6%.