Alexander MacDonald

Yes. Looking at that index, equity markets outside the US have been down 8% since September. Compare that to the S&P 500, which is up 5% since election day and about 25% YTD. Significantly different performance. Why the difference? We just had Q3 reporting season in the US, and about 50% beat on revenue expectations, and about 75% beat earnings expectations. Fundamentally, things are still going quite well for US equity markets.

Still, listening to the conference calls, there is some concern about the US consumer. Specifically, the lower-income consumer. People have been spending Covid savings, so savings rates now may not be what they used to be. 

Also concerns about whether US equity markets are getting ahead of themselves since the election. The new administration has talked about lower taxes and deregulation, but tariffs keep coming up. Those will hurt imports into the US and will impact a subset of US companies.

He cautions investors against trying to time the markets as a whole. A good time to focus on quality companies, ones you know will be there through a full economic cycle. These things come and go. Few things are inevitable in investing, but you know that at some point we're going to have a recession. You want to own companies that, going into that, are going to be strong with conservative balance sheets.

By trying to time things, you can miss some of the best days. For example, the day right after the election was one of the best days we've had all year. If you were sitting out because of uncertainty going into that election, that would have significantly impacted your returns.

Too small for his portfolios. In Canada, rolling up medical practices with a strategy of using technology to reduce administrative burden. In US, has a GI line, as well as virtual mental health and women's care; may spin off the latter two. Valuation ~40x forward PE, rich. He can't get behind that valuation, but progress will be interesting to watch.

Concerns regarding tariffs on components and whether Trump will expand public transit. Making progress on debt, but it's still too high. Supply chain issues. Too many questions to step in:  growth, costs, debt.

Price increases will increase margins and revenue, keep an eye out for any subscriber churn. Recently reported that margins expanded considerably. Valuation too rich. Not a horrible idea to take some profits. Great product and competitive moat.

Concerns in pharmaceutical segment, as one particular drug facing patent cliff next year. Talc litigation still an overhang; once done, can focus on turning around core operations. Diversified, likes the pipeline. You can afford to be patient.

Its businesses depend on consumers, so some growth might be capped. Pullback could be a time to look at it, but has already done pretty well over the medium term. Steady-eddy with potentially high valuation. Keep an eye on.

Pulled back based on underlying demand. Businesses are pretty steady-eddy. Infrastructure buildout would help, but questions surround new US administration. Interest rates ticking up means home renos have ticked down. Don't step in here.

Hurricanes (needing lumber replacement) can't be predicted from one period to the next. Investors want to see predictable, recurring revenue and cashflow.

Trades at 30x earnings, but it's warranted. Part of a duopoly, and has branched out into analytic services from its core business. Benefits from switching from cash to digital. Huge moat. There will always be regulatory risk. Happy to hold.

He has a fairly negative view on it. The USD, for example, has a value that the Federal Reserve can defend. The USD is accepted anywhere in the world, anchored to a basket of goods, and will maintain its value +/- a couple of percentage points. 

Bitcoin has none of that. Huge volatility. Doesn't know how you can pin a value on it. And if you can't do that, how can you use it to trade as a currency?

Questions about health of lower-income consumer. Both companies have flagged this on conference calls. DLTR is taking steps to increase price points, and an improving consumer would be a tailwind. If he had to choose, DLTR would be his pick.

Sold a couple of months ago on poor performance. Questions about health of lower-income consumer have been flagged on conference calls, and this concern is creeping up even to the medium-income consumer. Taking steps to increase price points. An improving consumer would be a tailwind. If he had to choose, this would be his pick.

A star in Canada due to great execution and lack of competition. Shift to multiple price points is a winning strategy. Carved out a niche in Canada.

He doesn't generally participate in the E&P space, as it's hard to make decisions based on the underlying commodity price. Bigger picture, still huge demand for Canadian oil and gas on world markets. EVs won't take over anytime soon.

SU had been an underperformer and a laggard. Management changes have resulted in turning things around and improving operations. So now, he'd prefer this to CNQ.

He doesn't generally participate in the E&P space, as it's hard to make decisions based on the underlying commodity price. Bigger picture, still huge demand for Canadian oil and gas on world markets. EVs won't take over anytime soon.

Very strong operations. Very focused on shareholders by returning $$ to them and paying down debt. Would have been his top choice, until SU ended up turning things around.