Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO)

Modest increase to dividend when Q4 reported. Looking at strategic options for phosphate business. A need, not a want, for economically viable crops.

A heavyweight in agriculture. They dominate the wholesale space in potash, nitrogen and phosphate sold through a massive retail network directly to farmers. Shares are up 25% the past year, a nice move, as the potash market finally tightens due to production cuts by peers. Fertilizer prices have stabilized. They execute well and cut costs ($200 million). Are leaning on retail network to sell proprietary products. Valuation of 13x PE is in-line with the average. Hold on.

EPS of 97c beat estimates of 96c; Revenue of $6.00B beat estimates of $5.75B. Nutrien's broad strategy to streamline operations continued in 3Q with a strategic review of the phosphate business after the $600 million Profertil sale. Its nitrogen plants in Trinidad might be next, with the assets contributing about 1% to free cash flow, though reliable gas and port access would likely require solutions first. Stretched US farmer budgets and palm oil prices -- down 10% quarter-to-date and key to Southeast Asian potash demand -- are flashing warning signs for potash demand in 2026. Nutrien's second potash-guidance hike this year adds an incremental 50,000 metric tons in potash sales. At 1.9 million mt, 3Q retail volume was the lowest since 3Q19, hinting at farmer strain, although the $230 million segment Ebitda beat consensus by 13%. Things look OK, notwithstanding some economic uncertainty.
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Likes it here for the long term. Undervalued relative to historical trading levels. Dominant in key markets. Up today on rumours of selling phosphate division, which is the smallest out of phosphate/nitrogen/potash.

Agriculture sector tends to do well this time of year because cashflows in the sector tend to boost stocks. Has a lot to do with the harvest in the Northern Hemisphere as well. Stock hasn't benefited yet, as tech is sucking a lot of oxygen out of the markets.

Downward trend has been broken, starting to form a base. Positive sign. Just looking for catalyst to move higher. More likely to move higher than lower. Won't run away, but decent technical profile. Good buy at this level of $80.

He'd buy this one today. Agriculture is a long-term theme, and this is one of the best names out there. Will be more volatile than a name like WMT, so perhaps you only want a 3% position total. Buy 1% today, and look for a spot to add.

Always go for quality. You want the best in your portfolio at all times.

Bought a position on the sense of a turning point in the fertilizer price cycle. Bit of a fade in last couple of weeks in some agricultural commodities. Patience will be rewarded. Financially strong. Downstream segment's margins are improving. Yield is close to 4%.

Choppy stock, pretty volatile. But you can see the nice uptrend on the chart, which helps you digest the highs and lows. After a big downtrend, you had basing, and then a nascent uptrend -- stock's looking through bad news, just be patient. Can still buy today and do well.

Lots of geopolitical things happening. When stock shot up from Russian invasion, sold some but still retains a 1/2-2/3 position. Likes it long term. BHP is bringing on Jansen, but it's behind (and second phase may be mothballed). Good diversifier. Nice yield.

For new clients, buying a half position. Ideally, want to buy under $70.

The 3-year chart shows the longer-term downtrend and how it's now beginning to come out. Pulling back recently. Around $75 will be pretty important support. Technicals show it's turned a corner. Doesn't mind nibbling here.

Is fairly valued. Has returned 59% over 5 years. The problem is that if the fertilizer price gets too high, farmers delay buying it. The PE is reasonable, though. It's had a good run the past 12 months.

World's largest crop nutrient business. Upstream production vertically integrated with downstream stores (in US, Canada, and some in South America). Commodity prices for the 3 fertilizer ingredients has bottomed, supported by steadily improving prices for major cash crops (corn, wheat, soybeans). 

Trades roughly at long-term average multiple. Earnings on cusp of a turning point. Dividend's increased 36% since merger in 2018, plus reduced outstanding shares by 23% since then. Yield 3.6%.

Likes it, as well as its US counterpart MOS. Part of his bias toward commodities. Downtrend ended, rounded bottom, now forming a neckline. Trying to break out; hasn't yet, but chart and fundamentals are set up to do so. Could get quite a bit higher, but you have to be patient (it's a commodity, and there's a cycle at work).

Should be affected by tariffs, but it's actually not because of its Canadian and US standalone businesses. Inexpensive. Capital intensive, so the rate of return is not as high as he'd like. Agriculture seems to be working its way out of a funk.

Same play as ADM: has been reversing a long-term downtrend and recently has been moving up. Investors who had ignored this are now coming back.