Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

This one comes down to your call on oil. If you think we are going to stay at $37-$38 forever, don’t own the stock and don’t buy anything else. Relative to other large caps, this wouldn’t be his top name. He would still lean towards a Cenovus (CVE-T) or Suncor (SU-T), but wouldn’t buy either because they have oil sands exposure. He also questions what the NDP government is going to come out with. They are more leveraged than most and have raw heavy oil exposure that they don’t upgrade, relative to Suncor. If you own it, crystallize a tax loss and roll it into another name that he likes better.

(A Top Pick Oct 23/14. Down 21.76%.) Had just bought a half position at that time, and has now bought the balance. If the market got another thumping, this is the one he would add to.

(Top Pick Jun 25/14, Down 35.39%) It is holding up better and better. They have been increasing the dividend. They are taking advantage of acquisitions. It will be interesting to see what they will do with their royalty packages.

This typically has a period of seasonal strength around the end of the year, December through to the end of March. After that period of seasonal strength, the stocks move lower. Wait until the next period of seasonal strength comes.

This will continue to be one of Canada’s best resources in the gas area. Its correction is just part of that reasonable state of the oil/gas companies.

Covered Call. This company is a choppier oil company in the energy sector and has very high premiums. The stock was $34 today. You write the $34 Call and you pick up over $3 for January. A seven-month return is about 8.86%, not counting dividends. If it rises, you are not going to get the upside, but you are going to get the 8.86% over 7 months. If it declines, you have production all the way down to $31 a share, and he would simply write another Call in January.

An extraordinarily well run company. When he is comfortable with the price of oil he will be back into it. Don’t buy it here.

(Market Call Minute.) He owns this in a lot of his dividend funds. A well-managed company. He likes that a 3^rd of it is gas.

Sold his holdings in the fall. Great company. A mixture of oil and gas, some Gulf of Mexico, a little bit of Africa, some Middle East, US and Canada. His problem right now is the stock price. It is barely down from where he sold his holdings, and at that time oil was $80-$85 on its way down. Oil is currently at $59 and the stock has held up quite well. If it went down $2-$3, he would probably buy it back.

This is what he would call a punt. You could put a little bit, such as 1% allocation to see if it would work. The low points in October, December, January and March flushed out a lot of the sellers and the upside target moved substantially higher. It doesn’t mean it is going to happen, but it laid the groundwork. It is going to rely much more on what is going to happen with oil. Recent earnings were really good. If it started to break above the $43 high in November he would probably add that next little chunk. The downside from here would be about 5%, so the odds are in your favour.

Very high on his Buy List of potential names he would add. (The other being possibly Tourmaline (TOU-T). He is not touching energy stocks right now, because he doesn’t know what the price of oil is going to be. There is another potential down leg. This one is extremely well-managed.

(A Top Pick May 1/14. Down 8.14%.) Sold all of his energy between July/14 and the end of September. Great company, but this is a tough sector to be focused on right now.

Seasonality is from around the end of January right through until usually May of each year. This year it started off very nicely and has had a breakout in the last few days. Above its 20 day moving average and outperforming the TSE Composite. It looks very good, probably until around the end of May of this year.

(Top Pick Jun 25/14, Down 17.49%) First company to complete an oil sands mine, putting it in operation on time and on budget. A very well run company.

Sold his holdings last fall. He doesn’t think this is a buy until it is $33. Feels that all the Canadian, senior oily companies are overly expensive at the present time, and need to pull back a good 10% before they are in Buy territory.