Stock Opinions by Martin Davies - Stockchase Experts
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Martin Davies

On Stockchase since : Apr 2013

Portfolio Manager at Brickburn Asset Management

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Stock Opinions by Martin Davies - Stockchase Experts

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General Market Comment 

November 11, 2015

Energy. OPEC expects a balance in the oil market sometime in 2016. Incremental oil demand globally is up by 500,000 in 2013 by 1.8 million barrels a day by 2014, and this year it is going to go up by 2.5 million. There has never been a time in modern history where oil/gas has had 2 years in a row of negative capital expenditures over the previous year. It looks like next year’s forecast will be down by 10% versus 20% from the previous year. The Canadian oil product is probably the lowest price on the planet. Companies who cut their capital expenditures to below cash flows are the ones that are going to be sustainable in business.

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Energy. OPEC expects a balance in the oil market sometime in 2016. Incremental oil demand globally is up by 500,000 in 2013 by 1.8 million barrels a day by 2014, and this year it is going to go up by 2.5 million. There has never been a time in modern history where oil/gas has had 2 years in a row of negative capital expenditures over the previous year. It looks like next year’s forecast will be down by 10% versus 20% from the previous year. The Canadian oil product is probably the lowest price on the planet. Companies who cut their capital expenditures to below cash flows are the ones that are going to be sustainable in business.

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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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HOLD
Canadian Oil Sands(COS-T) 

November 11, 2015

Hold or Sell? We know that Suncor (SU-T) is very aggressive because it is the hostile takeover bid and they want to get more oil sands assets. The classic risk/reward strategy is in your favour, so Hold onto your shares.

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Hold or Sell? We know that Suncor (SU-T) is very aggressive because it is the hostile takeover bid and they want to get more oil sands assets. The classic risk/reward strategy is in your favour, so Hold onto your shares.

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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$9.540
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Torc Oil & Gas Ltd(TOG-T) 

November 11, 2015

Just reported their quarterly report and it was great reading, allowing them to increase expectations and what they are going to produce, and reduce their CapX to do it. Their capital efficiency is remarkable. Drilling in south east Saskatchewan, which is all light oil. They have been doing this for a long, long time. Good management. Likes the company a lot. Dividend yield of 8.5%.

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Just reported their quarterly report and it was great reading, allowing them to increase expectations and what they are going to produce, and reduce their CapX to do it. Their capital efficiency is remarkable. Drilling in south east Saskatchewan, which is all light oil. They have been doing this for a long, long time. Good management. Likes the company a lot. Dividend yield of 8.5%.

oil/gas
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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$6.430
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Pengrowth Energy(PGF-T) 

November 11, 2015

New management is going through a transition of long life and very low decline assets. That, coupled with some recent asset sales, has allowed them to get the balance sheet in good shape. Balance sheet concerns are probably going to go away over a period of time. It’s just a matter of patience.

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New management is going through a transition of long life and very low decline assets. That, coupled with some recent asset sales, has allowed them to get the balance sheet in good shape. Balance sheet concerns are probably going to go away over a period of time. It’s just a matter of patience.

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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$1.160
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

He likes the company. Cut their dividend down to $0.10 a share, which was the right thing to do. They were punished for this initially, but in the long run they will be rewarded because of the sustainability of the company. A great deal of their production is on very low decline long life assets through the use of water floods. Most assets are in Saskatchewan. A good place to be.

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He likes the company. Cut their dividend down to $0.10 a share, which was the right thing to do. They were punished for this initially, but in the long run they will be rewarded because of the sustainability of the company. A great deal of their production is on very low decline long life assets through the use of water floods. Most assets are in Saskatchewan. A good place to be.

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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$17.610
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Vermilion Energy Inc(VET-T) 

November 11, 2015

Have some very interesting assets, most of which most are outside of Canada. Have extraordinarily high valued properties in France, Holland, Australia and recently in Germany. They have a very careful approach on looking at sustainability. The dividend rate is now where they can afford to change their CapX to make sure it is sustainable. The turning on of their current Irish Sea project is going to be significant for them. This is a company that is going to be paying a nice dividend. Large ownership by management. Good, long term investment.

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Have some very interesting assets, most of which most are outside of Canada. Have extraordinarily high valued properties in France, Holland, Australia and recently in Germany. They have a very careful approach on looking at sustainability. The dividend rate is now where they can afford to change their CapX to make sure it is sustainable. The turning on of their current Irish Sea project is going to be significant for them. This is a company that is going to be paying a nice dividend. Large ownership by management. Good, long term investment.

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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$41.160
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Whitecap Resources(WCP-T) 

November 11, 2015

Just reported a solid Q3. Slightly bumped their production guidance and the dividend looks pretty stable. Had reduced their operating costs quite nicely. Great company because of the way they can advertise these larger volumes over the existing infrastructure, and drive down the operating costs. Dividend yield of 6.6%.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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Just reported a solid Q3. Slightly bumped their production guidance and the dividend looks pretty stable. Had reduced their operating costs quite nicely. Great company because of the way they can advertise these larger volumes over the existing infrastructure, and drive down the operating costs. Dividend yield of 6.6%.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$11.360
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 11, 2015

Vermilion (VET-T) or Suncor(SU-T)? Doesn’t think a portfolio should be built on highly concentrated positions, so he would suggest looking at mutual funds or ETF’s (such as iShares S&P/TSX Energy (XEG-T) that give you some advantages of diversification.

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Vermilion (VET-T) or Suncor(SU-T)? Doesn’t think a portfolio should be built on highly concentrated positions, so he would suggest looking at mutual funds or ETF’s (such as iShares S&P/TSX Energy (XEG-T) that give you some advantages of diversification.

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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Canadian Natural Rsrcs(CNQ-T) 

November 11, 2015

(A Top Pick Nov 27/14. Down 15.16%.) (November 27 was exactly the time that the Saudis announced they were going to open the spigot.) He was thrilled to see that the Canadian Natural Royalty package is now in with the PrairieSky Royalty (PSK-T) assets. This is going to be a consolidation of the 2 best royalty packages in Canada. (See Top Picks.)

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(A Top Pick Nov 27/14. Down 15.16%.) (November 27 was exactly the time that the Saudis announced they were going to open the spigot.) He was thrilled to see that the Canadian Natural Royalty package is now in with the PrairieSky Royalty (PSK-T) assets. This is going to be a consolidation of the 2 best royalty packages in Canada. (See Top Picks.)

oil/gas
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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$31.710
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Enerflex Ltd(EFX-T) 

November 11, 2015

(A Top Pick Nov 27/14. Down 14.04%.) Does a lot of natural gas projects globally. Made a large acquisition to diversify into Latin America. It looks like it is going to be a good, long term investment. However, there was a sharp drop off of CapX globally and this company’s backlog came off sharply in the quarter. He trimmed his position a little.

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(A Top Pick Nov 27/14. Down 14.04%.) Does a lot of natural gas projects globally. Made a large acquisition to diversify into Latin America. It looks like it is going to be a good, long term investment. However, there was a sharp drop off of CapX globally and this company’s backlog came off sharply in the quarter. He trimmed his position a little.

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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$14.120
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Gibson Energy(GEI-T) 

November 11, 2015

(A Top Pick Nov 27/14. Down 41.99%.) This has been disappointing. Was surprised at the amount of commodity-based sensitivity and activity based sensitivity that the company had. Also, when the differentials are very wide, there is a lot of use of their type of assets, but when differentials on heavy and light crudes are very narrow, it means that they have less so. He is going through his numbers and may change his opinion on this company.

pipelines
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(A Top Pick Nov 27/14. Down 41.99%.) This has been disappointing. Was surprised at the amount of commodity-based sensitivity and activity based sensitivity that the company had. Also, when the differentials are very wide, there is a lot of use of their type of assets, but when differentials on heavy and light crudes are very narrow, it means that they have less so. He is going through his numbers and may change his opinion on this company.

pipelines
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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$16.400
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Painted Pony Energy(PONY-T) 

November 11, 2015

Has a great sensitivity to natural gas. The operating cost structure is in good shape. There have been some excellent processing plants that have been joint ventured with Altagas (ALA-T) that allow them to get this gas on stream. There will be a big change on his valuation and perception, it we go ahead on an LNG project on the West Coast. He likes the company. Has been hit by heavy, relentless foreign selling, but has heard that the Shorts are finished and some of them are covering.

oil/gas
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Has a great sensitivity to natural gas. The operating cost structure is in good shape. There have been some excellent processing plants that have been joint ventured with Altagas (ALA-T) that allow them to get this gas on stream. There will be a big change on his valuation and perception, it we go ahead on an LNG project on the West Coast. He likes the company. Has been hit by heavy, relentless foreign selling, but has heard that the Shorts are finished and some of them are covering.

oil/gas
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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$4.400
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Canyon Services Group(FRC-T) 

November 11, 2015

How would you evaluate their Board of Directors, and what impact does corporate governance have on this? It is probably more important for these companies to have a good set of governance aspects, to different parts of diversified type of board with a variety of different experiences, different industries and a good compensation system. This company’s board and management have a fairly large investment of their after-tax dollars in this company.

oil/gas field services
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How would you evaluate their Board of Directors, and what impact does corporate governance have on this? It is probably more important for these companies to have a good set of governance aspects, to different parts of diversified type of board with a variety of different experiences, different industries and a good compensation system. This company’s board and management have a fairly large investment of their after-tax dollars in this company.

oil/gas field services
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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$4.130
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 11, 2015

Natural gas. Now going more and more towards base load electrical generation, but there are always going to be large swings that come with heating and cooling degree days. There are massive amount of production coming off the Marsalis that seems to be swamping the continent. We are going to be living with lower price natural gas for a while.

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Natural gas. Now going more and more towards base load electrical generation, but there are always going to be large swings that come with heating and cooling degree days. There are massive amount of production coming off the Marsalis that seems to be swamping the continent. We are going to be living with lower price natural gas for a while.

Unknown
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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$0.020
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Tourmaline Oil Corp(TOU-T) 

November 11, 2015

Company has been executing exactly as they had said they would do in the last quarter. More importantly, they have a sustainable business plan of being able to have huge changes in their ability to control costs and CapX, and have great access to capital. Highly sensitive to natural gas prices.

oil/gas
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Company has been executing exactly as they had said they would do in the last quarter. More importantly, they have a sustainable business plan of being able to have huge changes in their ability to control costs and CapX, and have great access to capital. Highly sensitive to natural gas prices.

oil/gas
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Martin Davies

Portfolio , Brickburn Asset Mana...

Price Price
$26.070
Owned Owned
Unknown

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