Canadian Natural Rsrcs (CNQ.TO)

An excellent company, but feels that the big seniors are probably a little ahead of themselves in terms of pricing. He thinks they are anticipating $60+ oil, and he is not sure that is going to happen. If you buy it now, you have to be prepared for some pullback and some base building.

A great story. Right now there are some challenges. Debt is a lot higher than what she would expect from them. Spent a lot of capital building out Horizons, which is really going to provide a lot of free cash flow going forward. They’re in phase 2 now and phase 3 at the end of next year, and it will be really good. CapX spend on that project is going to come down significantly, which will help on the free cash flow side. In 2-3 years, this is going to be a great story. For now, be a little cautious because valuation has gotten ahead of itself. If you own, consider trimming, which is what she has done.

(Market Call Minute) Core holding for him. Super well run company. Might underperform if small companies keep working. But you can’t go wrong with it.

(A Top Pick April 30/15. Down 3.52%.) Sold his position, but likes the space, and owns others. This was his 1^st foray back into energy.

(Market Call Minute) He thinks it is really hitting resistance. It has an 82% downside to the model price of $6.43. Take your money and run.

He typically doesn’t own a lot of the large cap stocks in his portfolio. If you own smaller and mid-cap stocks, you have a better chance of getting higher rates of cash flow for growth on a per share basis. He likes the company and does own a small amount. The debt profile is going to be a little bit higher this year, until the next phase of Horizon comes on. The cash flow profile should look a lot better in 2017. Moody’s still has this as an investment grade rating.

It is probably the one large one to hold if you have to hold one indefinitely. If you are short term trader then get out. It has held up quite well.

His main core stocks getting through the last 2 years was Suncor (SU-T) and this. Has been adding to them on the way through. Just sold some to balance his portfolio. Oil needs to go back to $50-$70 in a few years’ time. This is one he wants to own 3 years from now.

One of the better names in the sector. Valuation wise it is a little bit expensive. The balance sheet is in relatively good shape. These are the type of companies that could be acquirers in this environment. With any energy company, you have to be prepared for them to be cutting dividends to make better use of capital. He would be comfortable adding more to holdings.

They have not reported. They are still paying out 3% but are going to lose $.51. If it breaks through his next EBV line then sell it, and he thinks it will.

Probably this is the best risk/reward trade off. They have nothing downstream. It is well positioned to benefit from a recovery. They have a pretty good balance sheet.

If you are inclined to step into energy, this is a very good choice. Have a lot of assets, including some that are offshore. Well-managed company. You have to decide that you are going to make a bet on a recovery of the energy sector and that there is not another leg down. If you are looking out 5 years, this is probably not a bad way to participate.

One of the best managed oil/gas companies in Canada. They have postponed some production. You would want to hold this longer-term, depending on how long your investment horizon is, and when you think the bottom can be picked.

(A Top Pick Jan 7/15. Down 11.95%.) Still likes this and has been buying it recently. One of the bellwether stocks of the industry. One of the best financed with some of the best properties. Great management. Still a Buy.

(A Top Pick June 29/15. Down 7.29%.) Covered Call. It was a very high implied volatility on the options on this. Had bought the stock at $34 and sold a $34 Call for $3, so his net cost on the stock is $31. If you have this, he would just leave it. The option is going to expire in January and he would write another 6 month option, because you are going to get another $3 in January, which will reduce your cost.