
TSE:CNQ
Has owned this for a long, long time. Management has done a really good job. They have consistently delivered. If you want a large cap oil play in Canada, this is one of them. Think of this as your stable stock, and if you have a really strong view on oil, you may want to own a mid-cap name where you will get much better returns.
Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ-T) or Vermilion (VET-T)? Both are core holdings. 2 different sizes with this one being a very large Senior. Both oily but this one is primarily driven by the growth of its Horizon Oil Sands projects through the next phase 2 and 3 which will derive significant free cash flow by 2018. Likes them both.
A great story. Right now there are some challenges. Debt is a lot higher than what she would expect from them. Spent a lot of capital building out Horizons, which is really going to provide a lot of free cash flow going forward. They’re in phase 2 now and phase 3 at the end of next year, and it will be really good. CapX spend on that project is going to come down significantly, which will help on the free cash flow side. In 2-3 years, this is going to be a great story. For now, be a little cautious because valuation has gotten ahead of itself. If you own, consider trimming, which is what she has done.
He typically doesn’t own a lot of the large cap stocks in his portfolio. If you own smaller and mid-cap stocks, you have a better chance of getting higher rates of cash flow for growth on a per share basis. He likes the company and does own a small amount. The debt profile is going to be a little bit higher this year, until the next phase of Horizon comes on. The cash flow profile should look a lot better in 2017. Moody’s still has this as an investment grade rating.
(Market Call Minute.) If you believe that energy has legs, this is the highest quality name. (See Top Picks.)