BCE Inc. (BCE.TO)

Underwater the past 3 years. EPS fell, free cashflow has also declined. Analysts have an average upside price target of 55% up from here, but she doesn't see that much. More like 4% from here. Still restructuring. She owns Telus instead.

It is turning around with the chart turning positive. There's a big catch-up trade to be had. The next resistance level is $42. It's the laggard among the big three telcos.

He quoted from a technical analyst: "Nothing good happens below the 200 day moving average". Its dividend is 5.7% and the payout ratio is 45%. Earnings are expected to be down this year and the next. In general telcos are in a very competitive business and have very high debt to equity. They have some unused or little used assets. There are better risk adjusted returns elsewhere.

This pick was before the sale of MLSE to Rogers and before the acquisition of Ziply. The yield was 10%, over the worst of fibre capex, and lower interest rates would help. She figured it had so many assets, that any of them could be sold to fix the balance sheet and alleviate investor concerns.

She still owns it, buying more around $30. Eventually, asset sales can help. In a recession, defensive plays are a positive trend for telcos.

She has no exposure to telcos, too competitive. Cut dividend, which will help preserve cashflow and balance sheet. But probably means dividend won't be raised anytime soon. Still questions about fibre strategy in US, which is also a very competitive market. Move on.

Whole telecom space has been challenged, partly because of increased competition. No outlets to grow outside Canada. Profitability will be flat for some time. People own these names for the income. Rogers' purchase of Shaw gives it an edge on cost-cutting. Telus is the best operator. Rogers has the lowest dividend yield of the group.

Steer clear of the space. Even with an income stock you do want some growth, as it helps offset valuation risk elsewhere in the business.

Now is probably the time to buy if you want to take a position. At $30 it is reasonably cheap. He likes the dividend cut which gives it financial flexibility and the opportunity to pay down debt. The dividend is still quite high at 6% and is stable. Market fears are somewhat overblown. The three year view should be better. He owns Rogers.

Dividend cut was the right thing to do and stabilized the stock. Business model facing lots of challenges right now. Lots of competition on satellites and mobile. Revenues aren't growing. Looking for alternatives to break into broadband in the US, doesn't seem a smart decision. Wants to see asset sales and debt paid down. Hard to see a catalyst. He owns no telcos now.

Become differentiated when you drill into the metrics. Both suffering from credit downgrades. Took on a lot of debt for 5G buildout, but weren't able to increase pricing. Number of immigrants has slowed. Lots of price competition, just as elsewhere in the world.

In last quarter, Telus increased dividend. Less risky than BCE right now. Debt/equity ~150%, so not as much onus on debt repayment as for BCE. Has potential of other operations like TIXT and Telus Health, so it's doing other things outside of just telecom; appears to be promising growth, but we'll see.

In last quarter, BCE cut dividend. Debt/equity is at 200%.

Hasn't liked some of the decisions. Hasn't sold or added. Historically once you get a material dividend cut, that ekes out the last bit of selling. Probably close to a bottom right now. Still, you need a catalyst to take it over the top and start the recovery.

Nibble or accumulate. Doesn't see a catalyst for this to take off to the upside. There was a bump after the cut, but then it dropped right back down. Tells you that a catalyst is lacking. Be cautious.

He was very disappointed when they bought Ziply. They should have bought back shares. Makes sense to slash their dividend. They should focus on what they do well, including media assets. Expectations among investors are now very low. Things could change, but we're now at maximum pessimism.

When making investment decisions, discard the idea of what your cost base is. It doesn't matter, it's water under the bridge. It's behaviourally and psychologically difficult to rip off the Band-Aid and admit that the initial decision was an error and to realize the loss. But remember that the loss is real already. What matters is where it's going in the future, regardless of what your cost is.

Stock sold off heavily in the last 2-3 years because it was anticipating the dividend cut, which finally came. Dividend is now sustainable. Total return expectations are likely confined to more or less what the dividend yield is. Doesn't expect shares to bounce back sharply in the short term. Look at Telus instead.

Yield is now 5.8%, so still a decent yield. Won't be any dividend growth. Now more transparency on payout ratio, and partnership with PSP on Ziply eases financial burden. Could be a valuation gap up. A buy today is not for a short-term pop in the stock, it would have to be a long-term buy and hold.

All telcos are facing slowing immigration, competitive pressures, regulatory pressure. Over the very long term will be OK, as they supply critical infrastructure. If recession, nice place to be for stability and defensiveness.

Price competition, so pricing power has disappeared. Profitability flat. Building out 5G network increased debt. Immigration has slowed. All that had a huge impact on FCF and ability to pay dividend. Latest acquisition doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Wouldn't touch. He owns Telus and CCA.

For a class action lawsuit, you have to get investors together and prove that there was intention to mislead.

It has cut the dividend but the yield is still attractive. It is probably fairly priced and needs interest rates to come down. You can hold but could also take a look at Rogers.