
TSE:BCE
Troubled. The business is becoming more and more competitive. Can't cover the dividend. Company claims that when massive fibre build is complete, dividend will be covered; most investors don't believe that. If dividend were cut, stock would go up. Yield is 12%.
He's a more aggressive investor than the rest of his team. He'd say it's a speculative buy now; BCE is not going away.
Dirt cheap. Multiple is ~10-10.5x PE. Market's lost confidence. FCF generated is roughly in line with the dividend, but looks undercovered relative to earnings. If dividend were to get cut, would be a positive catalyst. US acquisition will suck cashflow.
People own it for the dividend, not for growth. Cash cow. If management retrenches, there's a path to getting a better multiple. Very little downside. Buy here if you want income.
He actually likes both. Looking at price action over the last few days, these names have held up rather well. Sector's bottomed out. Both names have high dividend yields, tremendous FCF, lots of opportunity going forward to buy back stock. Worst is over for the sector, phenomenal opportunity.
With BCE, you should anticipate a dividend cut; this would be fine with him, as it will free up $$ to reduce debt and possibly buy back stock. If that happens, it would be a positive rather than causing the bottom to fall out of the stock. Investment community wants it to cut the dividend, reduce debt, and undertake a better allocation strategy. Still throwing off significant cashflow. Too early to say if it overpaid for the Ziply acquisition.
Telus has done better, with better growth. Invested in other things to diversify its business.
Yield is about 12.2% right now, with talk of a cut; she thinks chance of that is greater than 50%. Institutional investors want the cut, retail investors don't. If cut, stock price would probably go up. If you have a very long time horizon, thinks you can do well. Likes its critical infrastructure.
Was doing a bit better this year, but then came off again. Stock may have reached a bottom. A bit further behind Telus in the buildout of fibre to the home. Telus announced potential sale of towers; if BCE were to do that, dividend wouldn't necessarily need to be cut.
The most-hated stock in the past year. Everyone expects them to cut their dividend, which is under review now. The worst is probably over. It remains a regulated utility with good cash flow, which is what investors want in this market now. So, BCE can do well by default. It doesn't take much good news or rate cuts to lift this stock.
Telco sector sees steady demand keeping it defensive, but not a growth rocket. Facing stiff competition, regulatory issues, underperforming the sector index. Cost-cutting and asset sales. Cheap. Juicy yield of 8.5%. If you're in it for the yield, and you can stomach the volatility, cost cuts could pay off in the long run.
The worst is likely over here, and we think a dividend cut would actually be well-received by investors at this point. We would regard it as a HOLD but could be accumulated (slowly) into any new weakness that develops.
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Recently added a bit to his position. BUT: do not buy it for the current dividend yield. Management maintaining dividend for 2025, but Lorne strongly believes it will be cut in 2026 and he wants that cut. Generates lots of FCF, but lots has been going to the dividend. He'd much rather the FCF be used to pay down debt and invest in its business.
In his early days, someone said to him that when you see a high dividend like this one, "The dividend is talking to you." If the dividend were cut, the stock might actually pop a bit, as it would demonstrate management's focus on reinvigorating the business.
When he chose this last year, he was looking for a bounce. Which did happen, but then everything came unglued. Regulators, competition, and payout ratio is too high. In a downward channel on book value. Earnings are also in a downward channel. FMV has lots of upside potential, but that's the only bright spot. Be cautious here.
Hurt by pricing, competition, and CRTC rulings. Tailwinds from immigration have changed. Intensive capex with higher interest rates. Needs to sell assets and towers (and lease them back). Dividend is too high. Compelling down here.
In registered accounts, he's held on. In non-registered, he sold in November for the loss, and then got back in after the 30 days passed. You'll be fine longer term.
The Firefly acquisition made her sell the whole position; US market is very competitive, plus this will require capex. Balance sheet very levered. Yield is over 12%; market anticipates a dividend cut, and wants them to so they can move on. Dividend under ongoing review by the board. Any cut might see further drop in the stock, and you can reassess the company and its valuation at that time.
Better income stocks to own out there. When you buy for income, you want good coverage, visibility, and increases. This name doesn't provide any of that.
Relatively high yield. Defensive sector. Elevated payout ratio, rising debt, and weak growth outlook present too many risks. Hasn't done that poorly this year. 12-month price target of $34.75. If you're concerned, you could sell 1/4 or 1/3 as a sacrificial lamb.