BlackBerry (BB.TO)

Not going to make any money this year and doesn’t know if they will make any next year. Even if they make $3-$4 a share he doesn’t think it will trade much better than 8X earnings. Has a wonderful product but are not competitive on a cost basis against some of their competitors. A one-product company and becoming less and less relevant for US investors to own. (Shorting this a little bit.)

Should they license out their next-gen(?) operating system really fast or just take their time in what they are doing? Doesn’t know when they are going to do that. Has had a beautiful run.

He is not sure how to analyze them in their current situation. BB10 has been getting relatively good reviews and they continue to gain foreign market share. There is the threat of new competing products as well as cheaper, new Chinese products. Doesn’t know if they will get back to their former glory. It is a speculation, rather than an investment.

Seasonally it is not in the trend (Aug-Jan). It would be expected to be random at this time of year. Stay away from it from a technical and seasonal point of view. We broke out of the uptrend at the end of January.

The handset business is not one that he wants to be in. Whoever is ahead and winning, changes all the time and it doesn’t last.

A barbell stock. Has weight on either end, meaning it is either going to do very well or it is going to turn to dust. You need some predictability and he doesn’t have any with this. Feels they have an uphill climb because not only do they have to establish a brand but they have to convert those who were followers in a past life. He doesn’t think it matters about the quality of the device, it’s all about brand.

He has stayed away from this. A huge amount of risk in the name right now. Not sure if the new phone is going to be a success. One of the big risks is the service model and how that is changing and what it is going to do to their actual numbers.

It has gotten great reviews. The battle that they face is that you have to compete with two other big players. The unique thing is their great enterprise business. If they can deliver this great product in the US as well they can get people to convert to it.

Stock seems to have bottomed and he feels the worst is over. Have cut their costs and they are not dead. If it looks like the stock has built a base and will likely survive, he expects you are much more likely to see a takeover offer.

Has heard the BB-10 is a really, really good product. Sales have been sharply lower than the company’s estimates. That pushes out the profitability another year. Not a bad idea to average down because it will trade in this range for some time.

Wants them to succeed. Analysts are divided on this because they have no idea. If it is difficult for them, it will be difficult for the rest of us. Wait until you see signs of a turnaround.

Long-term chart showed a gorgeous pattern which ended up being a reverse head and shoulders pattern. Subsequently, the stock took a huge moved to the upside and is now starting to come back and could come back to the top of the trading range. Probably best to wait until we get past this correction in the markets.

(Market Call Minute.) Just a trading stock right now. Impossible to view it as an investment because you just don’t know enough. Volatility is breathtaking.

Thinks you need to look at the stock 3 years from now. Buy it and put it away. (Check his blog on his website as to how he has handled this.) He would just like the volatility to die down.

In the past he felt if it broke out above $8 or $9 it would probably double from there. We are seeing consolidation here. It is to be seen if it can motor on beyond the short-term consolidation. It is currently in a triangle pattern. The trend is up and there is a favorable outlook, but if it breaks the lower line of the triangle then it will go down.