BlackBerry (BB.TO)

Rounded bottom, cup and handle. It is a very nice formation. You need a breakout out of the handle to complete the formation. If it breaks $14 for more than 3 days it will be bullish.

The Android system and Apple have really overwhelmed them. Jury is still out. Their new launches are really, really important and if they’re not successful, the company is probably going to be bleeding cash.

Feels they made a structural mistake by getting into the consumer market and moving away from its core, the business and enterprise markets. Once it did that, it really opened itself up to direct competition from Apple (AAPL-Q). Good company but it has to reintroduce itself and he is not sure it is going to make it. If you are looking for a trade, it does have a cyclical bounce pattern which you could trade.

Doesn’t have a clue whether this stock will be $27 or $7.00 twelve months from now. It is so tough to call, that it is not the kind of the stock he would look at. If you are buying this, you really have to look into new Blackberry 10 platform getting traction in its core enterprise market.

Easy money was made if you had bought the stock at the $6 area. Thinks it will be real tough to make money on this stock. If you want to play that game, you may be better off buying this as well as Apple (AAPL-Q).

Just reported and beat most analysts’ expectations on the quarter but lost 3 million subscribers. Product is good. Will be coming out with a keyboard in the next little while so they’ve got the product and a good operating system. Now have to spend time consolidating their enterprise business. If they can do that, this company is worth a lot more. Have a lot of competition. Although he doesn’t own, he would look at it at these levels.

Thinks there is value here but he continues to sit on the sidelines. This is a “make or break” year for them in terms of its long-term evolution. If the rollout of the Z10 and the Q10 comes in with accelerating sales and growth, and they can make this into one of the sustainable platforms in the mobile world, it would be a good buy but there are a lot of risks. A lot of competition. This is one you could play an option strategy using volatility.

Would probably look at this one, not so much as a price point, but as time. If it were trading at $12-$13 in 3 or 4 months, after we have seen market reaction and assuming the reaction to Z10 andQ10 was favourable, then he might have a more serious look at it. Speculative play.

Not going to make any money this year and doesn’t know if they will make any next year. Even if they make $3-$4 a share he doesn’t think it will trade much better than 8X earnings. Has a wonderful product but are not competitive on a cost basis against some of their competitors. A one-product company and becoming less and less relevant for US investors to own. (Shorting this a little bit.)

Should they license out their next-gen(?) operating system really fast or just take their time in what they are doing? Doesn’t know when they are going to do that. Has had a beautiful run.

He is not sure how to analyze them in their current situation. BB10 has been getting relatively good reviews and they continue to gain foreign market share. There is the threat of new competing products as well as cheaper, new Chinese products. Doesn’t know if they will get back to their former glory. It is a speculation, rather than an investment.

Seasonally it is not in the trend (Aug-Jan). It would be expected to be random at this time of year. Stay away from it from a technical and seasonal point of view. We broke out of the uptrend at the end of January.

The handset business is not one that he wants to be in. Whoever is ahead and winning, changes all the time and it doesn’t last.

A barbell stock. Has weight on either end, meaning it is either going to do very well or it is going to turn to dust. You need some predictability and he doesn’t have any with this. Feels they have an uphill climb because not only do they have to establish a brand but they have to convert those who were followers in a past life. He doesn’t think it matters about the quality of the device, it’s all about brand.

He has stayed away from this. A huge amount of risk in the name right now. Not sure if the new phone is going to be a success. One of the big risks is the service model and how that is changing and what it is going to do to their actual numbers.