BlackBerry (BB.TO)

He cannot figure out how this company is going to do down the road. He is on the sidelines. If there is a big miss, those shares will come down hard, but if it is good news, then there is certainly some upside. He can’t get his head around the service business. He wants to see a few quarters of positive momentum.

Doesn’t expect you will see a whole lot of excitement in the next 3-6 months. New products are out and the company has sort of come back from the dead. Now it needs the next thing. It’s going to be around. It has the cash. Has some good products. It can compete but the global industry is different as there are more players out there. It’s a tough business.

Thinks the easy money has been made. You have to ask yourself, where do you see this company 12 months from now. He doesn’t think anybody has that answer. Pure speculation at this point.

There should be support in the low teens and resistance in the upper teens. If they execute well it could get to the low $20s.

Chart shows that this is forming a very symmetrical triangle and you want to look for a breakout. If it broke the lower part of the triangle, probably around $13, it would be in trouble. If it broke above the $15 area, this would be a bullish sign.

With all the Short calls out there, what would happen to the stock if they happened to meet or beat the streets numbers and also what would happen if they don’t? If they beat the street numbers, there would be a Short Squeeze resulting in a significant upside for the stock. If you are going to play this game, make sure you are doing it with money you can afford to lose. Speculative. At current earnings you could make an argument that Blackberry or Apple have the appearance of value stocks but, do they have the fundamentals in terms of stability.

(A Top Pick Sept 7/12. Up 102.28%.) Sold his holdings at $18 for a 156% gain. Will be reporting on June 28th with the next one on Sept 28th, so it will be interesting how the sales will be. He thinks it will be pretty good. What is interesting is the massive Short positioning in the stock and if there are decent numbers, given that the stock is still trading at a decent discount to Book, there could be some exciting upside. Speculative.

Speculative Buy before the earnings at the end of the month? From all accounts, it seems that the market is discounting that they are going to miss. Q 10 shipments are not where they are supposed to be in the US in particular. Currently we are below the 50 day moving average but the long-term average was coming down and just starting to move up. He could see this push down to around $12. After the 28^th, there could be a pretty good buying opportunity.

Their Z10 appears to have some legs. The new management has done a good job. Maybe in the end, somebody will want this company for its software and maybe it ends up being a story where the patents are worth a great deal. Doesn’t know enough about this.

Uncertainty level is far too high. You have to be prepared to trade it fairly actively. Thinks they will never return to the old form of relevance.

The verdict is out on how well the take-up is on the new product. He is considering going to a Samsung for his next unit. But he thinks BB will be a player, one of the top 10 in the sector. Let’s see if they can turn things around. Smart phones are not going to go away. Buy in low teens and sell at upper teens or 20’s.

Rounded bottom, cup and handle. It is a very nice formation. You need a breakout out of the handle to complete the formation. If it breaks $14 for more than 3 days it will be bullish.

The Android system and Apple have really overwhelmed them. Jury is still out. Their new launches are really, really important and if they’re not successful, the company is probably going to be bleeding cash.

Feels they made a structural mistake by getting into the consumer market and moving away from its core, the business and enterprise markets. Once it did that, it really opened itself up to direct competition from Apple (AAPL-Q). Good company but it has to reintroduce itself and he is not sure it is going to make it. If you are looking for a trade, it does have a cyclical bounce pattern which you could trade.

Doesn’t have a clue whether this stock will be $27 or $7.00 twelve months from now. It is so tough to call, that it is not the kind of the stock he would look at. If you are buying this, you really have to look into new Blackberry 10 platform getting traction in its core enterprise market.