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James Telfser
Partner & Portfolio Manager at Aventine Management Group
Member since: Sep '12 · 1074 Opinions
Rating Card
| All | 
Rating
| 
Big Win
| 
Win
| 
Neutral
| 
Loss
| 
Big Loss
|  |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.9 | 89 23.48% | 95 25.07% | 63 16.62% | 72 19.00% | 60 15.83% | ||
| 1 Month | 4.01 | 5 5.38% | 29 31.18% | 38 40.86% | 21 22.58% | 0 0.00% | |
| 6 Months | 3.76 | 14 16.09% | 26 29.89% | 12 13.79% | 18 20.69% | 17 19.54% | |
| 12 Months | 4.11 | 25 28.09% | 23 25.84% | 7 7.87% | 15 16.85% | 19 21.35% | |
| 2 Years | 4.08 | 29 37.66% | 14 18.18% | 5 6.49% | 16 20.78% | 13 16.88% | |
| 5 Years | 3.52 | 16 48.48% | 3 9.09% | 1 3.03% | 2 6.06% | 11 33.33% |
Stock Opinions by James Telfser
It's been a good year. There's a lot of comment on how just a few stocks are doing a lot of the heavy lifting. It's starting to get better on breadth.
There are still a lot of companies that have been left for dead over the last 12-18 months, especially sub-mega cap, or in the small-mid cap space. So there are a lot of interesting places to try to find value right now, but also some areas you need to be really careful with some of the valuations we're seeing.
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That does happen. You do see the flows in and out of sectors and back into those that haven't been working. You need a lot of stuff to happen for that to work, so you can see why the big-caps are a crowded trade as people look for where to make money.
Meanwhile, things that are more sensitive to the economy and the data aren't performing as well. Canadian banks are a good example, lots of headwinds there. We're seeing the reality of what the underlying economy actually looks like versus what we hope will happen because of AI or a short-term move in travel demand.
Uninspiring. Still down YOY. Higher costs, layoffs, not a lot of catalysts for growth. A bit early for the sector. Missed on capital markets, provisions for credit losses spiked. A great business, especially with third-party handling of accounts.
None of the Canadian banks are inspiring. Headwinds -- higher costs, layoffs, not a lot of catalysts for growth. A bit early for the sector. Banks are nervous about the future environment. Long-term will do fine, but you need some patience right now.
Seems banks are trying to batten down the hatches on the cost side, rather than trying to aggressively grow the revenue side. This might impact the potential sale of Laurentian Bank.
Go-to supplier during Covid. Struggling. Ukraine conflict has depleted stockpiles, which will need to be filled. Be patient for government contracts to appear. Incredibly cheap. Lots of levers to pull. Great new CEO.
Got on the wrong side of managing its debt. Now it's trying to figure out how to service it, with some success. But risk/return is not best way to deploy your capital. Too risky for him.
Sector is struggling with higher rates. Lack of growth going forward. Fighting competition out West. TIXT has been a drag. Will eventually come out the other side. Hold if you own, don't put new money in. Prefers BCE for income.
Great business, unique. Very profitable, very high ROE and growth. Growing pains include needing more capital. Hiccup spooked investors. Will take a few more quarters to soothe the market that no skeletons remain. Pretty good value here.
High real estate percentage in its portfolio. Likes the private equity space. Worried about commercial real estate amid higher interest rates, but not likely to take down the company. He owns KKR instead.
Continually raises new capital to generate great returns down the road. Generally, the sector is quite strong. Hitting 52-week highs today, so there's lots of momentum.
Though some of the heat has come out, travel stocks have done incredibly well over the last year. It's only a matter of time before that demand starts to fall back to earth. It's already starting if you look at credit card spending, with cash and savings balances lower.
This trend will flow into the travel industry eventually, and then you'll start to see some cracks on the growth side. Avoid right now. Sector is not cheap.
His preference is for quality. He likes POW, which owns GWO, for dividend growth and share buybacks. AGF.B might have higher return potential because it's smaller with more volatility, but POW will give him a higher Sharpe ratio over the long term because it's not as volatile.
His preference is for quality. He likes POW, which owns GWO, for dividend growth and share buybacks. AGF.B might have higher return potential because it's smaller with more volatility, but POW will give him a higher Sharpe ratio over the long term because it's not as volatile.
His preference is for quality. He likes POW for dividend growth and share buybacks. A smaller asset manager might have higher return potential because it has more volatility, but POW will give him a higher Sharpe ratio over the long term because it's not as volatile. Closing gap to NAV. Ideal asset manager to park your money in. Owning POW makes it easier to monitor the subsidiary pieces. Yield is around 6%.
Super-high quality. Sold on peak levels. His thinking was, "How much better can it get?" Monitoring closely, and he'd get back in at a lower level.
