Chief Executive Officer, President and Chief Inves at Acker Finley Inc.
Member since: Oct '00 · 4436 Opinions
The SVB collapse meant a long weekend and an interesting 48 hours for him. FDIC has bailed them out, so they have set a precedent for other regional banks. This is concerning. Shocking to him, but it saved the day. What will the Fed do next week, and what will the ECB do tomorrow with interest rates? We're getting a relief rally, because this is not over. Banks need to raise savings rates a lot in order to compete, so their margins will decline.
Their economic book value falls below his standards. The market is suspicious of its balance sheet. He is watching this, not buying it. We'll see what happens with airlines this coming year.
Used cars took off two years ago, and this got caught up in meme trading. Their PE is way off the charts, and used car prices are declining. We also face a recession if not now then next quarter.
The big question is: What will happen to interest rates? These stocks are sensitive to them. Rates have to rise above inflation in order to slow the latter. We are not there yet. If inflation takes off (50/50 chance), then Emera won't do well. This is worth $39.
Anything Brookfield: sell. It needs lots of liquidity, and liquidity is being drawn out of this market. The macro runs counter to Brookfield. He model $40.17, which is exactly where shares trades. Pays a small dividend; Brookfield needs to increase this.
No profits, no dividends and losses forever. Has it ever made money?
It's consumer discretionary and we're heading into a recession. Lord knows what'll happen to fuel prices. Too many unknowns. Ottawa is limiting flights into Pearson to relieve that airport's congestion. Flying AC is very less pleasant now and frustrating.
His target is down to $57.30, literalling hanging now and testing that level three times in the last 6 months.
He targets $45.87 and pays a good 5.75% yield. It earns more than its dividend. Shocking. It has pulled back. If it breaks $42.25, shares will go lower. What will happen to interest rates? Buy a little, but exit at $42.25.
The company is being taken out. Unhappy with that? Welcome to Canada. Why is management doing this when we're heading into the biggest bear market since 2008? CF wants to break it up; the asset management business would trade higher on its own. And the brokerage business is very cyclical in general. Has never owned this or talked to management. A curiosity.
Still likes it. He model $73.15 and further upside. If there's deflation in the US, this will fall to $39. Pays a 3.2% yield.
You want to be in the S&P 100. He models $15.93, 40% lower than now. Trades at book value and pays 2.6%. The semis are highly cyclical.
He models $431. Unfortunately, military stocks will do well in the next little while.
He models $43.16, 16% lower than today. Wait. This will fall to book value at $29. It will bounce like crazy given the macro environment, not their fundamentals.
They're a long-duration asset. He models $91.42, 17% lower than today. Wait for $87 to enter. Why buy stocks when you can get a 5% GIC in Canada?