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Stock Opinions by Brian Acker, CA

COMMENT
Bullish on USD. In theory, the US should be deflating, which we see, while the rest of the world (including Canada) will inflate. Numbers indicate we're inflating, but anyone looking at companies sees a plethora of layoffs coming, and so on. We've had two quarters of negative growth, which is the old definition of a recession. So everyone sees the economy slowing down, businesses are cutting head counts, controlling expenses. On the other side, the rest of the world is inflating because as the USD picks up, things get more expensive. For the US, the stronger USD makes their imports cheaper.
Unknown

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COMMENT
Client portfolios. Up to half his client assets are in USD assets, so they have yet to feel any of the impacts that the markets are feeling because of currencies.
Unknown
COMMENT
Central banks and inflation. Everyone sees a recession, but inflation is stubbornly high. Central banks aren't going to quit, and asset values have to be lowered, since no democracy can go with 15% annualized inflation. People would be in the streets. Already labour is wanting more money. Only way to lower inflation is for central banks to take out liquidity and reduce the market.
Unknown
COMMENT
Macro is king right now. Macro is in the driver's seat: interest rates, oil prices, bond market. For every stock he can mention, no matter what the metrics are, if the macro doesn't work out, none of the stock picks will either. This is not a stock-picking market. It's a macro market, and we have to figure out the big picture before we drive on.
Unknown
DON'T BUY
Model price of $119.81, upside of 77%. Oils have done very well. Going forward, bearish on commodity producers. He can't recommend it until we see where we're going with the economy, recession, currencies, etc.
oil / gas
COMMENT
Uncertainty on commodity producers. He has a little bit of oil in his funds, after huge gains over the last 2.5 years. We need some signal where we're going on the economy, recession, interest rates, currencies. 2.5 years ago, these companies were so cheap. But if you were a portfolio manager and you had Canadian oil & gas, you got fired. They came back with a vengeance, but now they're at a level where he's hesitant. Need more visibility on growth, company investment, exploration. Tough to invest in this space until we get the bigger picture going forward. NTR cutting guidance today is a good example of that.
Unknown
BUY
TD vs. CM for the long term? TD. CM has a lower valuation, but TD has everything going for it. CM is struggling, and he's wary of that. Go with the better quality ones now. His firm looks at valuation, not fundamentals. When it's time to buy value, he'd look at CM.
banks
DON'T BUY
CM vs. TD for the long term? TD. CM has a lower valuation, but TD has everything going for it. CM is struggling, and he's wary of that. Go with the better quality ones now. His firm looks at valuation, not fundamentals. When it's time to buy value, he'd look at CM.
banks
WATCH
Model price of $60.72, 116% upside. Lots of questions here, such as what's going on in China and macro factors. Lots of value, but not big value. He'd be cautious.
Financial Services
WATCH
Model price of $20.86, upside of 81%. If it breaks below $10.71, big warning that the stock should be sold. Put a stop loss on what you own and if you see $10.50, sell.
REAL ESTATE
DON'T BUY
Tough to analyze. Half or 3/4 of their business is US military, exempt from reporting results. Shareholders' equity is negative 18B. You can't tell what you're buying. Pass.
Transportation
DON'T BUY
Negative shareholders' equity of 256M. Trying to hold its level. Movie releases generate positive news, but he can't assess long-term fundamentals. Pass. Look for value elsewhere.
other services
SELL
He has a model price of $59.56, 207% upside, but hold on. Analysts are stuck. Could be top of the cycle. More of a sell than a buy here. Top is $21.15. If we ever got a pullback to $15, he'd look at it as a trade. Reports tonight.
oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Sell CNQ, buy SU? CNQ has a model price of $135.07, 65% upside. Where were investors 2 years ago, when they could have bought these stocks for pennies? SU doesn't have as high a valuation, has 100% upside. Neither is at a level he'd buy today, he'd want meaningful pullbacks.
oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Sell CNQ, buy SU? CNQ has a model price of $135.07, 65% upside. Where were investors 2 years ago, when they could have bought these stocks for pennies? SU doesn't have as high a valuation, has 100% upside. Neither is at a level he'd buy today, he'd want meaningful pullbacks.
integrated oils
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