
NASDAQ:AMZN
GOOGL-Q vs. AMZN-Q. He does not think AMZN-Q will pay a dividend. They are both equally interesting companies to own. AMZN-Q is going to reinvent retail. It is a unique story but you are paying a high multiple. GOOGL-Q is very interesting because if you are advertizing it is either GOOGL-Q or FB-Q and the former has a lead over the latter. They will continue to grow. You want to own both if you can find the right time. You have to expect volatility in both of them.
Feels the price is a little rich. It is hard to argue with what they have built, but the valuation metrics on the surface don’t seem to make a lot of sense. This is really a landgrab, where people assume that as more and more people sign up to Amazon Prime, and more and more people use the site, their profitability is going to soar. He is still waiting for that to happen. Wait for a pullback.
$300 billion-dollar market cap. You could buy Amazon, hold Amazon and keep Amazon, as there is nothing to say that it won’t be a $1 trillion company someday. This has become the de facto future. The company was brilliant. Quarter after quarter after quarter, people sold off the stock because they thought the company was wasting money on building warehouses all over the world. However, it allowed the company to become the one and only option for Internet-based commerce. They are also in the Cloud business as well as having Echo, a smart speaker for answering questions and controlling an intelligent home.
This fits into the technology category, but it has basically already killed everybody. The runway for revenue, both in retail, but more importantly in Cloud services business looks really, really strong. This is a franchise that seems to have moats all around it. People have been upping the valuation to very, very high levels. It would be on his list to sell very quickly in a market downdraft, just because the room for error is so narrow, and the expectations and the profits built into the stock are so high, that when we do get a correction, people like to sell their winners. Thinks that any of these “category killer” technology stocks over the next 5 years, are going to continue to do well.
He just doesn’t understand this one. Trading at a P/E ratio of a few hundred. The stock has done tremendously well and are dominating online retailing. From his perspective, the stock is overvalued, but it has been overvalued for the last 10 years. If you have your eye on this, he would wait for a pullback.
This has been a big spender to build out capacity. In the world of retail, this is an unstoppable juggernaut, where purchase dollars are going on-line. That growth isn’t slowing any time soon. Then you get to bolt on the second theme, which is Cloud computing, and they are the 800 lb gorilla there as well.
He has no clue what it will do in 6 months because it is such a volatile stock. Over the long term you will do super well with this stock. It is either reasonable or really high priced, depending on your metrics. The Canadian dollar will stabilize at a rate just about here.