Amazon.com, Inc.AMZNWATCHFeb 11, 2016Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Aug 06, 2026. Market Open.
Is a big holding of his. The CEO assures stockholders that Amazon's large invest in AI will pay off. AWS could become a trillion-dollar business now that it's using AI; it's already Amazon's most-profitable business, far more than Prime. The CEO expects returns from AI will come faster than AWS. The CEO raised capex higher, but shares still rallied, up 4.58% today.
AWS is a real earnings engine, growth accelerated to nearly 40% (fastest pace in more than 4 years). Enormous AI spending finally translating into faster cloud growth, and translating into profits faster than the competition. Headline profit was inflated by a large paper gain on its investment in Anthropic.
AWS, retail and ads all accelerated in growth while profits hit a record high with operating margins of 13.7%. AWS contributes 61% of operating income and is accelerating rapidly. Has lots of momentum. Even if you cut the backlog in half, you still see outsize growth and market share gains. It gives her confidence in the AI space for Amazon.
This, Microsoft, Google and Meta will be the distribution point of AI to wide adoption. AWS remains the dominant cloud player. OpenAI divorced from MSFT, so it could not be hosted on AWS. AWS is accelerating investments in data centres and chips, which is where the opportunity lies.
(Analysts’ price target is $315.16)He expects Amazon and Google to win the AI race. They have the money to build data centres and hire the best talent. He trims when the share price rises, and buys when the price declines. AMZN is one of the best companies in the world and is a long-term hold. Their retail and cloud (the leader) businesses are growing.
His preference is MSFT, and he'd buy today. Valuation is ~20x PE -- very fair valuation for business with good outlook for earnings growth for next 3-5 years. A bit more value than AMZN right now. Business model supports a better compounding over the long run, and generates significantly more FCF. Late to the AI race, and that's the reason for the selloff.
No issues with AMZN. Very well run, targeting new markets. You can't own all the tech companies, so you have to pick your spots.
Looking at a longer-term chart, not a huge growth rate for a company of this size with its level of market share in cloud computing. Recent pop, but he's troubled by capex spending and its issuing debt. Have to ask what's the value proposition?
If you own it, don't sell, but don't back up the truck either.
His favourites right now are AMZN, NVDA, and MSFT. They're all going higher.
On the capex spend, sometimes it's a leap of faith. You're relying on these companies having some of the smartest people in the world with the most disposable capital. And those people really believe it's not a bridge to nowhere.
Undoubtedly, some companies are overdoing it and there will be another side to the mountain. But we don't know when that will be.
You have to believe in the greater concept that Amazon is trying to achieve. They can make money if they want to, but is probably positioned not to give you a lot of earnings or dividends for a long time. A lot of the money goes back into developing and growing the business. The Cloud business is doing incredibly well and the retail business continues to grow taking market share away from the big box players. The company has changed the way people think about retail and will continue to do so. Expects they will continue to grab market share away from a lot of stores. When you see big Down moves in the stock, that is the time to try and buy it.