Tesla Inc (TSLA)

TSLA-Q vs. V-N vs. FB-Q. He likes both V-N & FB-Q. V-N is a major player when it comes to transactions. FB-Q would be his favourite tech company. They own the world. They are a very innovative company. They have made great acquisitions. TSLA-Q he goes back and forth on. He is a believer in electric vehicles, but does not think that much of TSLA-Q. Every study shows there will be a lot more electric cars on the road in the future.

A name that has done very well, more so recently. Valuation is something you need to look at, and the valuation really isn’t there. It is still rather expensive, because there are no earnings. You want to watch and focus on the fact that capital spending has been very heavy with this company on their investment spend with the model 3. Until they meet their mass critical number, it is going to cost the company some money. A name he has avoided.

Wouldn’t go near this at current levels. Way too much is priced in. The valuation is so high. He is skeptical as to when they assume Elon Musk’s other project, Solar City, that was suffering tremendously. Now it has been incubated through Tesla. 10 years from now there will be more electric cars on the road, this company will not be the only one.

He would recommend this. They are building a tremendous company. Have now invested $20 billion into he company, but are not earning a good return yet. Currently they have negative earnings, but if they invested another $20 billion in 5 years, that is actually pretty reasonable. He would take a chance that they are going to get 25% on their invested capital.

Shorting this? She does not Short, but also it is not a stock that she would add. This has an aura about it, it doesn’t need to make money and it keeps going up.

Trading at an extremely high valuation. Many of the other auto companies are looking into building electric cars, so there is a lot of competition. The stock is very expensive. He doesn’t like this one.

He would not be a buyer of this. People love the product, but you have to be extremely careful not to link the quality of the product with the quality of the stock. The price tag is just too high. You are paying $650,000 of market cap for every car produced. Putting that in context, with GM you are paying $4000.

Would you buy this now? Yes, but in the right size weighting, which might be 2.5%, or maybe as high as 3.5%. He had said that if it were to break above $280, he would get a little more interested. They are going to need to ramp up their supercharger network. They have 5000 now and have announced that they are going to get up to 10,000, and going to try to have 15,000 charging stations at destination locations. There is a lot of concern in the analysts’ community on the solar city amalgamation and the debt load.

It is never inexpensive. It has had quote a pop recently due to an announcement. It depends on your risk profile. It continues to be a bit of an unknown. It is a bit of a speculative purchase.

A truly unique company. Some people look at this as a car company and some will see it as a battery or alternative energy company. In reality, it is a company that is changing the world. The cost of a battery cell a year ago was $500. Today it is $190. As the giga factory comes online, it will be $150 per cell with a clear line of sight to $100 per cell. At that time, there is no petrol-powered drivetrain that can compete with an electric drivetrain., They think they can cut costs of capital spending by half in the utility business. If they can produce 500,000 of the Model3 car, they can earn $20 a share. There are risks in this.

An exceptionally expensive company. There are 3 things involved, the way a car looks, battery technology and general technology. This doesn’t have anything over Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Ford or Chrysler in terms of style. There is no competitive advantage on the battery either. It is a chemistry thing, and you are only going to be able to make batteries so much more efficient. Tesla has brought costs down but that is an economy of scale thing, not efficiency. General Motors has all the manufacturing capability to build cars. Tesla does not. The $45 billion market value does not support the physical capacity to make as many cars as General Motors does.

This moved up sharply to $200 in mid-December, and is now over $300. It’s in the ballpark of starting to run into previous resistance of past years. From a tech perspective, the only thing we have are 2 prior highs. There is nothing yet to say “get out”. Usually a train in motion stays in motion until it doesn’t.

A wonderful car, but wouldn’t touch the stock. When you look at the business plan of Mr. Musk, he is basically producing something that every other car company in the world is either coming out with the product or has a product that is a year or 2 away. There is going to be tremendous competition in terms of electric cars, over the next 2-4 years. The stock is so highly valued that if you put it in context of cars produced, it has a market capitalization of $220,000 per car produced. GM has a market capitalization of $4300 per car produced.

Right now is a great time to be in the automotive sector. Automotive stocks, including automotive parts manufacturing, tend to do well between now all the way through to mid-April. The recent weakness was attributed to a downgrade by an analyst, and it dropped to its 50-day moving average, but nothing significant indicates a reversal of the uptrend. Take advantage of the weakness and the positive trend, and play higher. (See Top Picks.)

Just downgraded today by Goldman Sachs. It is something he does want to own and plans on getting into it at some point, but wouldn’t buy it in a downtrend, or anywhere in this area right now. Wait for the stock to break through about $280. That would break it out of a four-year sideways trend. Seeing it at $280+ for some consistent period of time, would give you a sort of “all clear” on the stock, and it could be very, very interesting.