
TSE:TRP
Generally, it pays to hold this for the long-term. However, valuation is not cheap for a regulated industry. Trading at 20X this year’s earnings and 16X next. The 4.3% dividend yield is very attractive, and they have a history of dividend increases. If you put it away, you may not get huge capital appreciation, but if you only get 4%-5% a year, and adding that to your yield, it is a very nice long term rate of return. A good, solid stock to hold in a portfolio.
The pipes have had a good retreat and are in an area where there is some value to them. The question is, where are you going to get growth from. If they got the Energy East go ahead, that would be a positive and would give you some growth down the road. At these prices, this is okay to buy. Has a good yield of 4.5%, with some growth on the side.
Acquiring Columbia Pipeline Group (CPGX-N) for US$10.2 billion. This is a good deal for them. They are also selling their facility that supplies New York City, a stake in the Mexican gas pipeline as well as making a $4.2 billion capital raise. If Energy East doesn’t get built, it doesn’t matter too much to them, as this deal is going to be earnings accretive next year. They continue to raise their dividend 8%-10% a year through 2020.
Just acquired Columbia natural gas pipeline. This was a really strategic move to diversify away from Western Canada. His initial thought was that it was a statement on the prospects for Western Canadian gas, but looking out 4, 5, 10 years there has been so much growth out of the US plays, which have gone from next to nothing to 17 billion feet a day, that they are at risk of crowding out Canadian gas.
Pipelines? He added TransCanada (TRP-T) recently. Has not liked the pipeline sector for a while, simply because of valuation. You’re still looking at single digit growth in the industry along was some worries about growth projects going forward. However, stocks came down pretty dramatically. This is probably the best financed of the pipelines. Not hugely bullish on the sector and wouldn’t be putting money into any of these today.
Any time you have a utility, you basically have a company that has its hand in your pocket, because it has a required rate of return it has to earn. This is a long, ongoing saga, of trying to get a pipeline through the US as well as getting one into eastern Canada. So far they are being blocked at every turn. The stock has fallen down to what he considers to be pretty darn good support, at about $40-$41, about 1.5X BV. It doesn’t have a ton of upside potential because it needs one of those pipeline projects. Has a nice 4.5% dividend yield while you are waiting.
There is a good probability that this company may keep the dividend where it is at. He has reduced his position. Likes the company and likes the pipelines. The bigger concern is that we are in an environment where pension funds are going to have to Sell. Because of that he would rather be high in cash, waiting for these to come down, and then go back in.
With the pullback we have seen, particularly in this company, he would seriously be looking at buying this. A lot of their revenue is fairly consistent. Currently paying a 4.8% dividend yield, which is quite competitive in today’s market. They still have projects beyond KXL that could expand their base of revenue.