Stock Opinions by Gavin Graham - Stockchase Experts
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Gavin Graham @

On Stockchase since : Oct 2000

Trustee at Pointbreak ETFs

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Stock Opinions by Gavin Graham - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

October 1, 2018

USMCA (NAFTA deal) is finally done and is as good a deal as possible. Dairy concessions were inevitable, but we kept the dispute resolution mechanism. Overall, not a bad deal for Canada. Trudeau got a fairly good deal. Despite Trump's public negotiation, Canada kept its cool. Auto parts dealers today leapt 5-10% as a sigh of relief (after weeks of getting hit during the uncertainty). But the auto stocks are in the bottom of the 8th inning--late in the cycle. North American auto stocks are down vs. the past few years. Limit your exposure in this sector.

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USMCA (NAFTA deal) is finally done and is as good a deal as possible. Dairy concessions were inevitable, but we kept the dispute resolution mechanism. Overall, not a bad deal for Canada. Trudeau got a fairly good deal. Despite Trump's public negotiation, Canada kept its cool. Auto parts dealers today leapt 5-10% as a sigh of relief (after weeks of getting hit during the uncertainty). But the auto stocks are in the bottom of the 8th inning--late in the cycle. North American auto stocks are down vs. the past few years. Limit your exposure in this sector.

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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

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$0.020
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COMMENT

He's amazed that tech stocks are off this year. Long-term, BABA has been a great story, but there's been a slowdown in China where the government is tightening lending conditions and only recently is starting to ease this.

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He's amazed that tech stocks are off this year. Long-term, BABA has been a great story, but there's been a slowdown in China where the government is tightening lending conditions and only recently is starting to ease this.

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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$162.000
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Unknown

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COMMENT

One of the best infrastructure plays, despite past troubles (which he hopes are behind them). Has a choppy chart, but long-term this looks good due to new management, creating a fresh slate.

contractors
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One of the best infrastructure plays, despite past troubles (which he hopes are behind them). Has a choppy chart, but long-term this looks good due to new management, creating a fresh slate.

contractors
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$52.150
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Micron Technology(MU-Q) 

October 1, 2018

Tariffs are not a good thing, of course. But more importantly be worried that the chip cycle has turned. There were strong numbers before, but not going forward. Numbers ahead don't look good. Avoid.

computer software/processing
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Tariffs are not a good thing, of course. But more importantly be worried that the chip cycle has turned. There were strong numbers before, but not going forward. Numbers ahead don't look good. Avoid.

computer software/processing
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$45.150
Owned Owned
Unknown

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SELL
General Electric(GE-N) 

October 1, 2018

The board bit the bullet and replaced the CEO. Things weren't working out with the latest CEO. He wouldn't touch this with a barge pole. Take your losses. This is too hard to work out.

electrical/electronic
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The board bit the bullet and replaced the CEO. Things weren't working out with the latest CEO. He wouldn't touch this with a barge pole. Take your losses. This is too hard to work out.

electrical/electronic
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$12.090
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Manulife Financial(MFC-T) 

October 1, 2018

It's gone nowhere in the last year, but up 25% in the past five. Earnings growth is good. New management's focus is  on wealth management and Asia. Yes, John Hancock is a legacy they continue to deal with, but MFC's operational side is doing fairly well and its Asian operations are gangbusters, showing impressive growth.

insurance
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It's gone nowhere in the last year, but up 25% in the past five. Earnings growth is good. New management's focus is  on wealth management and Asia. Yes, John Hancock is a legacy they continue to deal with, but MFC's operational side is doing fairly well and its Asian operations are gangbusters, showing impressive growth.

insurance
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$23.060
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
Ford Motor(F-N) 

October 1, 2018

A class act in U.S. autos and the best one. That said, don't own auto stocks, because cars are in the late cycle with sales down in North America from their 2016 peak. Rising interest rates won't help. There's auto growth in Asia, but down in China.

Automotive
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A class act in U.S. autos and the best one. That said, don't own auto stocks, because cars are in the late cycle with sales down in North America from their 2016 peak. Rising interest rates won't help. There's auto growth in Asia, but down in China.

Automotive
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$9.320
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Unknown

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DON'T BUY
JP Morgan Chase & Co(JPM-N) 

October 1, 2018

CEO Jamie Dimon successfully steered JPM out of the recession a decade ago. If there's a US slowdown ahead, then bad debt will kick up and effect JPM. Sure, tailwinds have doubled US bank stock prices in the past few years, but looking ahead Why buy a US bank when you have to pay a withholding tax (compared to a Canadian bank stock)?

Financial Services
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CEO Jamie Dimon successfully steered JPM out of the recession a decade ago. If there's a US slowdown ahead, then bad debt will kick up and effect JPM. Sure, tailwinds have doubled US bank stock prices in the past few years, but looking ahead Why buy a US bank when you have to pay a withholding tax (compared to a Canadian bank stock)?

Financial Services
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$113.500
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PARTIAL SELL
Amazon.com(AMZN-Q) 

October 1, 2018

The last FANG stock that's still rising. Lock in some profits and see how the rest of your shares do. If there's a bear market, because this will go down, because its valuation is very high.

specialty stores
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The last FANG stock that's still rising. Lock in some profits and see how the rest of your shares do. If there's a bear market, because this will go down, because its valuation is very high.

specialty stores
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$2004.360
Owned Owned
Unknown

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TOP PICK
Bank of Nova Scotia(BNS-T) 

October 1, 2018

It recently took a hit on earnings, because it had bought a large Spanish bank's Chilean operations, making it the second-biggest bank in Chile, and took an immediate writedown, which hit the topline numbers. BNS also bought MD Financial for $2.5 billion as well as investment firm Jarislowsky Fraser for $1 billion, so they issued a lot of stock to cover those. But their yield continues to rise, the highest of the Canadian banks. The rule is buy the worst performer in one year, and it becomes the best performer in the future. (4.5% dividendAnalysts' price target$85.46) 

banks
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It recently took a hit on earnings, because it had bought a large Spanish bank's Chilean operations, making it the second-biggest bank in Chile, and took an immediate writedown, which hit the topline numbers. BNS also bought MD Financial for $2.5 billion as well as investment firm Jarislowsky Fraser for $1 billion, so they issued a lot of stock to cover those. But their yield continues to rise, the highest of the Canadian banks. The rule is buy the worst performer in one year, and it becomes the best performer in the future. (4.5% dividendAnalysts' price target$85.46) 

banks
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$76.190
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
InterRent REIT(IIP.UN-T) 

October 1, 2018

Apartment in Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal. It's not exposed to tariffs. Management has done a good job and their chart looks good. They internalized management which will boost earnings. They continue to pick up rental units outside the urban core in the GTA. It helps that few rentals are being built. Stock price has risen a lot, but this is a good long-term play. (2.3dividendAnalysts' price target$12.10)

property mngmnt/investment
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Apartment in Toronto, Ottawa and Montreal. It's not exposed to tariffs. Management has done a good job and their chart looks good. They internalized management which will boost earnings. They continue to pick up rental units outside the urban core in the GTA. It helps that few rentals are being built. Stock price has risen a lot, but this is a good long-term play. (2.3dividendAnalysts' price target$12.10)

property mngmnt/investment
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$11.680
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Boralex Inc.(BLX-T) 

October 1, 2018

The biggest independent wind power company in Canada but also France, which accounts for nearly half its operations, plus 31% in Quebec where BLX recently bought more operations. Stock is down 15% because Ontario premier Ford said he would scrap green energy projects but BLX mostly has operations outside Ontario. BLX will continue to grow production. (3.5dividendAnalysts' price target: $25.67

electrical utilities
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The biggest independent wind power company in Canada but also France, which accounts for nearly half its operations, plus 31% in Quebec where BLX recently bought more operations. Stock is down 15% because Ontario premier Ford said he would scrap green energy projects but BLX mostly has operations outside Ontario. BLX will continue to grow production. (3.5dividendAnalysts' price target: $25.67

electrical utilities
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$17.960
Owned Owned
Yes

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SELL

You buy this stock for coal exports heading to the west coast. This is a play on that demand. It has come off sharply, with trade tensions being an issue. If you're uncomfortable with this, sell it and take your losses. Pays a 2.3% yield. Coal is not fashionable and this is not a yield play.

investment companies/funds
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You buy this stock for coal exports heading to the west coast. This is a play on that demand. It has come off sharply, with trade tensions being an issue. If you're uncomfortable with this, sell it and take your losses. Pays a 2.3% yield. Coal is not fashionable and this is not a yield play.

investment companies/funds
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$26.950
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY

A stock that looks expensive, but always delivers. They own convenience stores globally. They are very good at what they do. Gas companies are happy to sell to ATD'B, because ATD'B increases their margins. They succeed in the U.S. where many Canadian companies have failed. This will continue to be a class act.

food stores
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A stock that looks expensive, but always delivers. They own convenience stores globally. They are very good at what they do. Gas companies are happy to sell to ATD'B, because ATD'B increases their margins. They succeed in the U.S. where many Canadian companies have failed. This will continue to be a class act.

food stores
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$63.560
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Unknown

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COMMENT
Teva Pharmaceutical(TEVA-N) 

October 1, 2018

Generic drugs. Teva will benefit from an aging population and a growing push by governments to make drugs cheaper. However, Teva has been facing competition from other generic makers. In the long term, though, this will be a winner in this space.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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Generic drugs. Teva will benefit from an aging population and a growing push by governments to make drugs cheaper. However, Teva has been facing competition from other generic makers. In the long term, though, this will be a winner in this space.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
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Gavin Graham

Trustee, Pointbreak ETFs...

Price Price
$21.460
Owned Owned
Unknown

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