Paul Gardner, CFA
Member since: Dec '04
Partner and Portfolio Manager at
Avenue Investment Management

Latest Top Picks

(A Top Pick Nov 22/18, Up 20%) There are only a few industrial REITs in Canada. WIR's assets are all in the U.S. This is the industrial asset class at its finest. Tenants include Amazon and GE Mills. They have private deals with Alberta Pension Plan. Great assets. There's room for rents to rise, so revenues will rise. Will perform well in 2020.
(A Top Pick Nov 22/18, Up 14%)Convertible debenture He's suggested this before. He was a senior debt holder with YPG was restructuring. YPG still has very high free cash flow and EBITDA still hovers around 35%. They transition to digital which was costly. They've since reduced that cost structure, paid down most of that debt and have free cash flow. What's left are convertible debentures, so he's front of the line to get paid.
(A Top Pick Nov 22/18, Up 22%) Well-capitalized and they execute well. Fibre to the home is done and they're taking market share from Rogers. Bundling with fibre to the home is helping their wireless business. Even their wireline division is making money. The only issue is that BCE trades at 8x EBITDA to enterprise value, the highest in this sector.
They get hurt by the Calgary recession and remain exposed in the Prairies, but now it's too cheap. They have top-notch managers who own 25% of stock. What's changed recently is that Alberta is slightly improving. This trades at $150,000 per door vs. CAP REIT's $280,000 and Killam REIT at $230,000. Their incentives to get people in the door are waning (i.e. free rent for first month) Trades at a 10% discount to NAV when it should trade at or slightly above NAV. (Analysts’ price target is $51.60)
Bond-like, they're very good at mezzanine and commercial lending. They distribute what they get and are conservatively balanced (balance sheet). They know their markets. It's like a mortgage-lending situation. They earn 7% rates of return, no more or less. A very stable investment, acting like a bond proxy. (Analysts’ price target is $9.96)