Stock Opinions by Paul Gardner, CFA - Stockchase Experts
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Paul Gardner, CFA @

On Stockchase since : Dec 2004

Partner and Portfolio Manager at Avenue Investment Management

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Stock Opinions by Paul Gardner, CFA - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 20, 2019

The market before today's U.S. Fed announcement was down, then it bumped up. Everyone was expecting one rate hike for 2019, but the Fed today announced none, and only one in 2020. When the dust settled, the only negative was in banks--fundamentally this new is not great for the banks, because they need higher interest rates--the yield curve is flat. The stock market liked the Fed announcement today. Yes, global growth is slowing, but it is still growing. REITs, utilities and consumer discretionary did quite well today. The U.S. and Canadian 10-year bond spread has never been wider because the U.S. has massive budget deficits. The past six years have reversed the norm where Canada's interest rates are higher than America's. Canada is in good financial shape vs. the U.S. and predicts this outperformance for the next 12 months. This flies against common thinking. Also, oil is reaching for a new recent high while Canadian oil companies have reduced costs to be more efficient. The oil patch won't ramp up, but be stable. Overall, he's not negative Canada like so many. He's bullish.
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The market before today's U.S. Fed announcement was down, then it bumped up. Everyone was expecting one rate hike for 2019, but the Fed today announced none, and only one in 2020. When the dust settled, the only negative was in banks--fundamentally this new is not great for the banks, because they need higher interest rates--the yield curve is flat. The stock market liked the Fed announcement today. Yes, global growth is slowing, but it is still growing. REITs, utilities and consumer discretionary did quite well today. The U.S. and Canadian 10-year bond spread has never been wider because the U.S. has massive budget deficits. The past six years have reversed the norm where Canada's interest rates are higher than America's. Canada is in good financial shape vs. the U.S. and predicts this outperformance for the next 12 months. This flies against common thinking. Also, oil is reaching for a new recent high while Canadian oil companies have reduced costs to be more efficient. The oil patch won't ramp up, but be stable. Overall, he's not negative Canada like so many. He's bullish.
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.000
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Unknown

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COMMENT
It has struggled with some vacancies in Toronto. Honestly, he doesn't know much about this REIT. He prefers SRT.UN-T which focuses on grocers in mid-market US towns and they have reduced their leverage. He likes SRT's American operations and its defensiveness. The only negative is an external managed contract that seems to be going on forever.
REAL ESTATE
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It has struggled with some vacancies in Toronto. Honestly, he doesn't know much about this REIT. He prefers SRT.UN-T which focuses on grocers in mid-market US towns and they have reduced their leverage. He likes SRT's American operations and its defensiveness. The only negative is an external managed contract that seems to be going on forever.
REAL ESTATE
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$6.160
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
Trades at a reasonable 15x AFFO under solid managers. It's also defensive. Problem is it doesn't excite him enough as a REIT. You'll collect the 6-7% yield plus a small bump in price. In the last three months, REITs have been on a tear because interest rates have fallen and should rise another 2-5%.
REAL ESTATE
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Trades at a reasonable 15x AFFO under solid managers. It's also defensive. Problem is it doesn't excite him enough as a REIT. You'll collect the 6-7% yield plus a small bump in price. In the last three months, REITs have been on a tear because interest rates have fallen and should rise another 2-5%.
REAL ESTATE
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$13.760
Owned Owned
Unknown

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BUY
They're good at what they do. He was interested in it, but the price got away from him. This will hit $30 in 12-18 months. He still likes. The Amazon effect has put malls out of favour. But some malls like Yorkdale do incredibly well. BPY also has fine office properties.
REAL ESTATE
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They're good at what they do. He was interested in it, but the price got away from him. This will hit $30 in 12-18 months. He still likes. The Amazon effect has put malls out of favour. But some malls like Yorkdale do incredibly well. BPY also has fine office properties.
REAL ESTATE
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$26.330
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
Inter Pipeline(IPL-T) 

March 20, 2019

Has longed it. It's the pipeline to the Oil Sands. They're getting into a natural gas processing plant, but that comes with an execution risk: can they do it? The plant will eat up a lot of resources at $3.5 billion, to be finish in 2021. Wait and see. Last quarter, they were in line and cash flow beat expectations. IPL is consistent, because they already have a pipe in the ground (there's no uncertainty). Healthy cash flow.
oil pipelines
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Has longed it. It's the pipeline to the Oil Sands. They're getting into a natural gas processing plant, but that comes with an execution risk: can they do it? The plant will eat up a lot of resources at $3.5 billion, to be finish in 2021. Wait and see. Last quarter, they were in line and cash flow beat expectations. IPL is consistent, because they already have a pipe in the ground (there's no uncertainty). Healthy cash flow.
oil pipelines
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$22.070
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
He really likes it. They're a good acquirer, though they had one weak quarter due to a weak U.S. acquisition. This is a value story. ATD offers some defensiveness from the convenience stores, but also growth. He will hold this for a while.
food stores
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He really likes it. They're a good acquirer, though they had one weak quarter due to a weak U.S. acquisition. This is a value story. ATD offers some defensiveness from the convenience stores, but also growth. He will hold this for a while.
food stores
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$72.200
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
Never owned it, not because he dislikes it, but they're so large, it's hard to change what they own. For example, they bought then sold the U.S, and now they're buying Canada. He prefers SRU.U-T in the same space, but Walmart anchors them. In contrast, RioCan had to deal with the Sears and Target closings. SRT has rallied for the past few months, despite the Amazon effect, but still has room to grow. Nothing wrong with REI.UN, but he prefers SRU.U. Managment are also large shareholders.
property mngmnt/investment
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Never owned it, not because he dislikes it, but they're so large, it's hard to change what they own. For example, they bought then sold the U.S, and now they're buying Canada. He prefers SRU.U-T in the same space, but Walmart anchors them. In contrast, RioCan had to deal with the Sears and Target closings. SRT has rallied for the past few months, despite the Amazon effect, but still has room to grow. Nothing wrong with REI.UN, but he prefers SRU.U. Managment are also large shareholders.
property mngmnt/investment
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$25.730
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
BCE Inc.(BCE-T) 

March 20, 2019

(A Top Pick Feb 07/18, Up 11%) Best in class. Their fibre to the home network is mostly done and will gain them more market share. Pays a 7% cash flow yield. BCE can bundle with their new fibre, while their Fibe is doing well. Their net additions last quarter beat expectations. He took some profits recently yet still likes it alot.
telephone utilities
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(A Top Pick Feb 07/18, Up 11%) Best in class. Their fibre to the home network is mostly done and will gain them more market share. Pays a 7% cash flow yield. BCE can bundle with their new fibre, while their Fibe is doing well. Their net additions last quarter beat expectations. He took some profits recently yet still likes it alot.
telephone utilities
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$58.710
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Inter Pipeline(IPL-T) 

March 20, 2019

(A Top Pick Feb 07/18, Down 3%) Tremendous yield for the risk you're taking. (See his other comments on IPL this day.)
oil pipelines
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(A Top Pick Feb 07/18, Down 3%) Tremendous yield for the risk you're taking. (See his other comments on IPL this day.)
oil pipelines
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$22.070
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Leon's Furniture(LNF-T) 

March 20, 2019

(A Top Pick Feb 07/18, Down 20%) They reported light on their earnings, but they have an underlying $800 million real estate value and they can trigger that. They have no debt and are integrating the Brick stores well. Very cheap, worth $5-6 more just on the real estate.
specialty stores
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(A Top Pick Feb 07/18, Down 20%) They reported light on their earnings, but they have an underlying $800 million real estate value and they can trigger that. They have no debt and are integrating the Brick stores well. Very cheap, worth $5-6 more just on the real estate.
specialty stores
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$14.010
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 20, 2019

Housing measure introduced in yesterday's federal budget designed to help first-time buyers. Ottawa spent two years slowing down the hot real estate market and now it's trying to reverse it in a targeted way. Why not let the market do its thing? It shows confusion. Real estate lobbyists are problem at work here.
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Housing measure introduced in yesterday's federal budget designed to help first-time buyers. Ottawa spent two years slowing down the hot real estate market and now it's trying to reverse it in a targeted way. Why not let the market do its thing? It shows confusion. Real estate lobbyists are problem at work here.
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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HOLD
It's better to rent than buy, even with yesterday's new incentive in the federal budget. So, rentals will stay tight. He wishes he owns this REIT. They've done a good job creating value with most assets in Ontario where rents have increased. He sees no headwinds against CAR.UN, but it trades at 26x AFFO, which is high. It's too pricey to enter now. The higher it rises, the shyer he gets. Definitely hold it.
investment companies/funds
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It's better to rent than buy, even with yesterday's new incentive in the federal budget. So, rentals will stay tight. He wishes he owns this REIT. They've done a good job creating value with most assets in Ontario where rents have increased. He sees no headwinds against CAR.UN, but it trades at 26x AFFO, which is high. It's too pricey to enter now. The higher it rises, the shyer he gets. Definitely hold it.
investment companies/funds
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$50.680
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

March 20, 2019

Extended duration treasuries. These are 30-40-year treasuries, which were affordable last year, but expensive now. He'd hesistate buying them, because the U.S. government is creating a massive deficit, so any downturn will get passed onto any treasuries. He's far more bullish in Canadian debt than American. Also, he doesn't see inflation coming back. Too risky to buy. Avoid.
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Extended duration treasuries. These are 30-40-year treasuries, which were affordable last year, but expensive now. He'd hesistate buying them, because the U.S. government is creating a massive deficit, so any downturn will get passed onto any treasuries. He's far more bullish in Canadian debt than American. Also, he doesn't see inflation coming back. Too risky to buy. Avoid.
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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DON'T BUY
Extendicare Inc(EXE-T) 

March 20, 2019

This sector is almost as bad as airplanes, because there are government regulations and labour issues (minimum wage) and it's labour-intensive. Also. EXE missed their numbers and hasn't done much in two years. They blew their brains out in the U.S. where they got it. Also--his theory--technological advances and government incentives encourage seniors to stay in home and not enter nursing homes. The whole sector falls shorts.
other services
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This sector is almost as bad as airplanes, because there are government regulations and labour issues (minimum wage) and it's labour-intensive. Also. EXE missed their numbers and hasn't done much in two years. They blew their brains out in the U.S. where they got it. Also--his theory--technological advances and government incentives encourage seniors to stay in home and not enter nursing homes. The whole sector falls shorts.
other services
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$7.480
Owned Owned
No

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HOLD
Boardwalk REIT(BEI.UN-T) 

March 20, 2019

He really likes it and its management who run 25% of the company. Problem is, they are recovering in Alberta, and so now BEI.UN IS shifting to Ontario, namely the GTA. Rents are rising except in Alberta (stable, not rising). He hopes this turns around.
property mngmnt/investment
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He really likes it and its management who run 25% of the company. Problem is, they are recovering in Alberta, and so now BEI.UN IS shifting to Ontario, namely the GTA. Rents are rising except in Alberta (stable, not rising). He hopes this turns around.
property mngmnt/investment
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$40.710
Owned Owned
Unknown

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