Stock Opinions by Paul Gardner, CFA - Stockchase Experts
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Paul Gardner, CFA @

On Stockchase since : Dec 2004

Partner and Portfolio Manager at Avenue Investment Management

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T: 416.482.2004http://www.avenueinvestment.com/

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Stock Opinions by Paul Gardner, CFA - Stockchase Experts

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 22, 2018

Market Outlook - The Equity market is on sale. Earnings are very consistent. Even in Canada Earnings surprised more n the upside than the downside. The trillion dollar question is when the equity market goes up. The gap in Earning Yield vs 30-yr Government Bonds is bribing you to buy equities. In the Corporate Bond market his fund is invested in the short term side of the yield curve. Bonds lead and credit spreads are an indication of where Equities are going.
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Market Outlook - The Equity market is on sale. Earnings are very consistent. Even in Canada Earnings surprised more n the upside than the downside. The trillion dollar question is when the equity market goes up. The gap in Earning Yield vs 30-yr Government Bonds is bribing you to buy equities. In the Corporate Bond market his fund is invested in the short term side of the yield curve. Bonds lead and credit spreads are an indication of where Equities are going.
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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HOLD
Defensive in nature as the main anchor is Loblaw. They transitioned out of it 6 months ago. Trading at 16 times Price-to-AFFO (after funds from operations). In general the sector goes where interest rates are going.
REAL ESTATE
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Defensive in nature as the main anchor is Loblaw. They transitioned out of it 6 months ago. Trading at 16 times Price-to-AFFO (after funds from operations). In general the sector goes where interest rates are going.
REAL ESTATE
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$12.140
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Inter Pipeline(IPL-T) 

November 22, 2018

It is on sale. The dividend is stable. Main pipeline out of Fort McMurray. There is a scarcity of assets they have which makes it valuable. They made some acquisitions that they didn't over paid for them. Balance sheet is good. They have had it for several years now.
oil pipelines
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It is on sale. The dividend is stable. Main pipeline out of Fort McMurray. There is a scarcity of assets they have which makes it valuable. They made some acquisitions that they didn't over paid for them. Balance sheet is good. They have had it for several years now.
oil pipelines
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$22.080
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

November 22, 2018

A large position for his clients. It has been thrown to the wolves as the Street didn't believe they could sell assets to rationalize their balance sheet, but they did it. It trades cheap. One of their thesis is that Bank of Canada and the Fed is going to slow down on their hikes as the global economy is going to decelerate. In this scenario utilities outperform. The Spectra asset is gassy. With 6-7% dividend yield all you need is 4-5% growth to get a 10-12% return.
oil/gas pipelines
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A large position for his clients. It has been thrown to the wolves as the Street didn't believe they could sell assets to rationalize their balance sheet, but they did it. It trades cheap. One of their thesis is that Bank of Canada and the Fed is going to slow down on their hikes as the global economy is going to decelerate. In this scenario utilities outperform. The Spectra asset is gassy. With 6-7% dividend yield all you need is 4-5% growth to get a 10-12% return.
oil/gas pipelines
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$44.020
Owned Owned
Yes

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DON'T BUY
A company that was under stressed. It was over levered. It starting to restructure. It had a couple of Target and Sears properties. They had to cut their distributions. They brought new Management. He would say it is cheap but stay away from it. It's tough.
investment companies/funds
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A company that was under stressed. It was over levered. It starting to restructure. It had a couple of Target and Sears properties. They had to cut their distributions. They brought new Management. He would say it is cheap but stay away from it. It's tough.
investment companies/funds
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$10.830
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 22, 2018

Which one would you pick among Utilities or Telcos or REITs? - Utilities have been washed out. Among them Enbridge (ENB-T) offers a particularly good opportunity as it is cheap.
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Which one would you pick among Utilities or Telcos or REITs? - Utilities have been washed out. Among them Enbridge (ENB-T) offers a particularly good opportunity as it is cheap.
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 22, 2018

With rising rate environment how REITs are going to do? - At his firm believe that normalization is happening. We are getting there. They think that inflation is not an issue given the massive dislocation in global market through AI, disruption of technologies, etc. He believes that there is always this inflation fear that is not going to happen. As a result interest rates are going to stabilize and the sector is going to go up.
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With rising rate environment how REITs are going to do? - At his firm believe that normalization is happening. We are getting there. They think that inflation is not an issue given the massive dislocation in global market through AI, disruption of technologies, etc. He believes that there is always this inflation fear that is not going to happen. As a result interest rates are going to stabilize and the sector is going to go up.
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Unknown

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PAST TOP PICK
Altagas Ltd(ALA-T) 

November 22, 2018

(A Top Pick Sep 13/17, Down 36%) Got out of it at around $20. It was a leverage problem. Since the last quarter there are rumors that the dividend is going to be cut. At 14% yield the distribution is unsustainable. they still have good assets.
oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Sep 13/17, Down 36%) Got out of it at around $20. It was a leverage problem. Since the last quarter there are rumors that the dividend is going to be cut. At 14% yield the distribution is unsustainable. they still have good assets.
oil/gas
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$15.980
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK
Baytex Energy Corp(BTE-T) 

November 22, 2018

(A Top Pick Sep 13/17, Up 8%) This is about the 6.625% 2021 Bond - They have owned it since 2016 when the last oil crisis happened. Since it merged with another company it is a lot less risky. better coverage ratio. Sometimes they prefer to have the bond with an equity-like return.
oil/gas
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(A Top Pick Sep 13/17, Up 8%) This is about the 6.625% 2021 Bond - They have owned it since 2016 when the last oil crisis happened. Since it merged with another company it is a lot less risky. better coverage ratio. Sometimes they prefer to have the bond with an equity-like return.
oil/gas
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$2.530
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Toronto Dominion(TD-T) 

November 22, 2018

(A Top Pick Sep 13/17, Up 11%) 55% of their revenue is coming from the US. Has owned this since 2004 when started his firm. He would be surprised if they ever get out of TD. It is cheap-ish relatively to where it has historically been valued.
banks
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(A Top Pick Sep 13/17, Up 11%) 55% of their revenue is coming from the US. Has owned this since 2004 when started his firm. He would be surprised if they ever get out of TD. It is cheap-ish relatively to where it has historically been valued.
banks
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$71.040
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
Vermilion Energy Inc(VET-T) 

November 22, 2018

Great company. They own a lot of oil based on Brent as opposed to Canadian Discount. Their cash flow multiple is cheap. They are being thrown with the sector. Oil has sold off also. When it comes up, this stock will pop. The Federal Government is talking now with the Alberta Government to buy freight cars to move oil. This would be basically a quasi-pipeline. It will help on the differential on a shorter time period than when the pipelines are built, which is probably 2-3 years out.
oil/gas
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Great company. They own a lot of oil based on Brent as opposed to Canadian Discount. Their cash flow multiple is cheap. They are being thrown with the sector. Oil has sold off also. When it comes up, this stock will pop. The Federal Government is talking now with the Alberta Government to buy freight cars to move oil. This would be basically a quasi-pipeline. It will help on the differential on a shorter time period than when the pipelines are built, which is probably 2-3 years out.
oil/gas
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$34.170
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY
They made two massive acquisitions in the US. Two earnings seasons ago they missed it and that affected the stock but that is over. He thinks it is a fantastic business. Great margins. Trading at 14 times next year earnings which is not expensive.
food stores
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They made two massive acquisitions in the US. Two earnings seasons ago they missed it and that affected the stock but that is over. He thinks it is a fantastic business. Great margins. Trading at 14 times next year earnings which is not expensive.
food stores
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$65.320
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

November 22, 2018

What would you recommend in term of bond trading at a deep discount? - He has some bonds on Energy company. He suggest getting 1.5% over Government of Canada Bonds. If you are going to own these bonds you have to sit on them. Liquidity for retail investors is difficult. You have to let them mature.
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What would you recommend in term of bond trading at a deep discount? - He has some bonds on Energy company. He suggest getting 1.5% over Government of Canada Bonds. If you are going to own these bonds you have to sit on them. Liquidity for retail investors is difficult. You have to let them mature.
Unknown
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
Bank of Nova Scotia(BNS-T) 

November 22, 2018

Canadian Banks have done incredible well. He has always been concerned with the Latin America as the area is not that stable as North America and this bank has exposure to that area. In late cycle usually this bank outperforms but it is not worth the risk in his opinion. It is rather cheap-ish here. but he probably will never own it.
banks
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Canadian Banks have done incredible well. He has always been concerned with the Latin America as the area is not that stable as North America and this bank has exposure to that area. In late cycle usually this bank outperforms but it is not worth the risk in his opinion. It is rather cheap-ish here. but he probably will never own it.
banks
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$70.050
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
WPT Industrial REIT(WIR.U-T) 

November 22, 2018

He really likes the industrial sector. All their properties are in the US and in secondary type of cities. most of their tenants are logistic firms. 99% occupancy. Well run company. P/FFO is 14x. Yield: 6.0% US exposure trading in the TSX. Cheap. (Analysts’ price target is $15.01)
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He really likes the industrial sector. All their properties are in the US and in secondary type of cities. most of their tenants are logistic firms. 99% occupancy. Well run company. P/FFO is 14x. Yield: 6.0% US exposure trading in the TSX. Cheap. (Analysts’ price target is $15.01)
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Paul Gardner, C

Partner an, Avenue Investment Ma...

Price Price
$12.590
Owned Owned
Yes

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