
TSE:TRP
Have just asked for a postponement of the verdict on Keystone. Earnings which were a little better than analysts were expecting. This is a company that can solidly generate earnings per share and earnings per share growth on a continual basis. Lots of pipelines are being built and there are lots of ways to move gas and oil, and this company is in there.
Down 20% this year. This is one of the utility/pipelines that have massively underperformed, because of fears about interest rate increases. These are interest rate sensitive to some degree, but Canada has cut interest rates twice and the US hasn’t raised interest rates. Keystone XL will get sorted out at some stage eventually. Have a great portfolio of clean energy and pipelines, and will get some growth by building ones that are allowed to progress. In the meantime you’re getting a pretty reasonable yield.
Is this worth holding for a one-year term? He believes it is. This has been weaker than what he would have expected at this stage. Doesn’t think Keystone will make a huge difference to the price. They have target of growing their dividend at 8%-10% a year through 2017, and feels that is achievable. They are cutting costs and have lain off a number of people. There is decent upside from these levels.
Likes this stock. It has had a brutal year in terms of share price with a decline of about 20%. In the meantime its business is increasing. Management has guided to about a 9% dividend annual increases for the next few years. Have a number of capital projects that are on the go. Tends to get a lot of negative press, but they have a lot of great growth projects. A good holding.
He prefers Enbridge (ENB-T), but this one is fine. Shorter term oil prices are going to affect sentiment for both names, but he just thinks there is better growth in Enbridge. Valuations are somewhat similar, but in his view, the cash flow growth, dividend growth and earnings growth are more predictable.
The Keystone XL pipeline is almost a side issue. They have so many other things going. Doesn’t know the seasonality on this, but technicals show the trend is on the downside, which is not good. It seems to be forming a base which is encouraging. Thinks it has limited downside potential, probably due to the nice dividend that it has. It is also underperforming the TSE Composite, trading below its 20 day moving average, short-term momentum indicators are trending down. Wait until there is confirming evidence that the stock has actually hit a low, before adding to your position. Yield of 4.7%.
How much does this political wrangling impact this company’s value? He is modelling this company as not having the big energy products go through. Without Keystone and without Energy East he still sees 4.2% cash flow per share growth and 8.2% dividend growth. Trading cheaper than its peer group average at around 24X, so it is a name that is relatively viable here. As long as oil is in the penalty box, you are not going to have an easy time with pipelines. However, this one is pretty defensive and is a bond yield alternative.