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Stock Opinions by Mason Granger

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Energy. Christmas came early with the November 30 announcement that OPEC had struck a deal. He hadn’t seen this happening. There was a tremendous amount of pessimism going into the November 30 meeting. Even the most bullish forecasters were starting to doubt that something would happen. We had a $6 rally in crude prices. Now it comes down to whether or not members will actually stick to these targets. They also have 600,000 barrels from non-OPEC producers, committed to be taken off the market. Half of that is Russia, and Russia has a terrible track record of keeping their word. Even though the deal was not expected, there were still signposts that suggested the market was going to balance itself at some point in 2017. This deal has effectively accelerated the point at which the markets balance, and can start working through these high inventory levels around the world. OPEC is now producing about 34.2 million barrels a day, and that is up substantially in the last couple of months. He thinks that with this impending deal, there was a race to get production up because producers probably knew that at some point, if the deal was going to be arrived at, it would be based on where their production had been most recently. We don’t need oil prices to get back to $80-$90-$100 for North American companies to really make healthy returns. He looked at some of the individual well economics of Canadian producers at $90 Cdn per barrel. They are generating approximately the same rates of return at $60 Cdn. Currently, we are now more of $70 Cdn, so there are a lot of very investable companies in Canada and North America at these price levels.

Unknown
COMMENT

A small emerging Montney producer. He made a small flow-through investment in this company. They have a little over 87 sections of land in an area called Elmworth Pipestone. At Encana’s recent investor day, they highlighted the emerging potential of Pipestone. For a multi-billion dollar company to highlight this, this is a company that has material exposure. For a company this size, it is interesting because of Encana’s interest in this play.

Energy
SELL

A heavy oil producer. They IPO’d back in 2014 at the peak of market. This struggled, partly because they had a SAGD project that had a lot of technical challenges. He sold his holdings. As an investor, he didn’t like that they had a dividend reinvestment program. The move they did today was to reduce the dividend by 50% and eliminate the DRIP program. They also announced a tender for shares at $4, and he doesn’t think that is a significant vote of confidence for the 2 major shareholders to say that shareholders can have all of their stocks. He doesn’t look at this company as particularly investable. If you own shares, he would tender to the offer.

0
COMMENT

He has a very small position. Views this as torque to higher oil prices. He is comfortable with the credit profile, which has been an issue in the past. They ended up securitizing their credit facility against the assets, and pushing down the subordinate note holders. Doesn’t think the company has an issue with debt, but it has struggled in an environment of lower oil prices. Once we get to $55 oil, it becomes profitable again. Once it gets to $60 and beyond, this company looks a lot better than it does now.

oil / gas
COMMENT

The oil rig count dropped from 1600 down to 400, and even to 300 at one time. We are now down about 70%. It’s a very countercyclical Buy to start looking at a driller here. A signpost on getting constructive on energy service names, particularly the drillers, is the return on pricing power, and he is starting to see that. Feels they have the highest quality rig fleet, and would be the 1st call if producers are going to accelerate capital programs.

oil / gas field services
COMMENT

This has gone through a period of significant adjustment to the current commodity prices. They’ve had to right size the dividend, reduce leverage levels, sell assets, etc., and he thinks they are through the worst of it. This is something that he thinks he should be looking closer at.

oil / gas
COMMENT

Has been a disappointing performer this year. The bright side is, you have an opportunity to buy this at a valuation that is almost at a historical low. They have an enormous depth of inventory. The well results from their US holdings is very encouraging. They are doing some very novel things in terms of water flood. Have cut drilling times from 8 days to 5 days in a year in the Bakken. Sentiment has been poor for them. This would be a buying opportunity for a long-term holder.

oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 21/16. Down 23.74%.) This is a product of a split up of D3. A little bit less than 4000 barrels a day. They have a novel gas flood enhanced oil recovery they’ve been trying to get going for several years. A single asset company, very concentrated concept. He sold his holdings.

oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 21/16. Up 30.82%.) Views this as the gold standard in terms of Canadian listed International stocks. An oil producer in Colombia. They have an absolutely stellar track record of creating shareholder value. Basically has no debt. Feels they can cover the cash costs of their production down into the low $30s, and if they run a $50 Brent crude budget, they match their capital expenditures to their cash flow. Should be able to deliver 15%-22% of growth in production.

oil / gas
PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 21/16. Up 22.92%.) See today's Top Picks for comments.

Oil and Gas (Integrated Oils)
COMMENT

Recently added this to his portfolio. They brought in a new CEO, and have done a few acquisitions. 2016 is going to be a fairly transformative year for them. He likes the direction it is taking, and the assets they are buying. Likes the prospects going into 2017 and thinks there is considerable upside.

oil / gas
SELL

This has always grappled with debt loads that he felt were too high. Have always had a considerable hedge book. They’ve had to sell properties and do a joint venture.

oil / gas
COMMENT

Trading at about 7X on an enterprise value to debt adjusted cash flow. He can find companies that have a greater free cash flow profile and cash flow growth profile than a large cap like this. Syncrude, which has actually been a pretty poor performer in terms of reliability, managed to have a 98% reliability in Q3, which is pretty good for them. Comfortable that about 70% of Fort Hills is complete, and that it and Hebron are both expected at the end of 2017.

integrated oils
SELL

One of the premier natural gas producers. They have an excellent cost structure and a pretty good balance sheet. Recently did a pretty big acquisition from Shell. His issue is that the company is bumping up against 200,000 barrels a day. If you pick a decline rate, which he would imagine would be close to 40%, the company basically has to replace 80,000 barrels every year, either organically or through acquisitions. That becomes harder and harder for a company this size.

oil / gas
DON'T BUY

He wouldn’t look at something like this. They have a significant debt burden. Based on where oil prices are, for an oil sands producer on a debt to cash flow basis, the numbers get huge. Doesn’t think that they have any near-term issues of being off-side on covenants or issues with refinancing their debt. This is not something he would be looking at.

oil / gas
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