Nutrien Ltd. (NTR.TO)

Potash is less of a commodity than in the past. The world needs this commodity around the world. The previous supply situation globally is abating as marginal mines are not being built. This is a good name to own. He prefers to hold base metals instead, where there is even greater growth potential. Yield 2.7%.

Likes it. Nutrien has done everything it has promised after the marger. Have nicely executed a program to sell $5 billion in assets which they will invest in the retail side by doing acquisitions. They will do buybacks and raise the dividend.

(Past Top Pick, Nov. 30, 2017, Up 18%) He bought this two years ago at the bottom of the cycle, and now the oversupply glut is clearing and India is paying higher prices for potash. Has $5 billion in cash and will likely make accretive purchases in the future.

She thinks synergies from the merger of Potash and Agrium are coming through faster than expected. They had to sell several assets as a condition of the merger, and those sales are now closing, generating about $5 billion in cash. They also expect to generate $6 to 8 billion in free cash flow over the next few years. They are buying back stock and they expect to increase the yield on their dividend. They are also investing in growing out their retail platform, hold about a 19% share of their market in the US and think they can grow it to 30%. They are also planning to expand in Australia and Brazil. They think their retail business is the promising area for future growth, rather than wholesale. In addition, the price of potash seems to be rising from its trough. Yield 2.9%. (Analysts’ price target is $81.48)

He owned POT-T before. The risk is the cycle with the commodity. Overall it is a necessary component for agriculture. The past few years have not been kind to this company or commodity so he would look at this as a potential for a better look at this company. Stick with it if you have a long term horizon. Don’t pick it for short term gains.

We're heading into a bullish cycle for fertilizers. They're selling assets and paying down debt. There will be big share buybacks. This will be the go-to name in this space. (Analysts' price target: $80.44)

Analysts had the new entity valued around $72. He thinks the forward outlook remains mixed. He would be a holder at best at this point. He thinks there will be the chance to repurchase in the mid-$60s in the next six months.

Hold in their client portfolios and likes the company and continues to hold it. She likes the long term growth prospect. They are a big producer of potash and nitrogen. They had a big beat in their last report. Are a fertilizer company and they have retail stores for the farmers. There is a lot of growth potential. Also want to expand retail platform to Australia and Brazil. They have a lot of cash flow from sale of certain assets to grow their retail.

Trying to work through recent merger and cost synergies. Long-term theme is the growing population, and growing middle class in emerging markets. Demand for fertilizer this year is outpacing last year’s. $71 is a good entry point. Yield is 2.8%. (Analysts’ price target is $78.96.)

The company sold off after the merger and has come back up. The valuation level might now be a bit too high. There are only so many places where you can get potash. He sees it as a national champion asset in Canada. He thinks this is a good quality company.

(A Top Pick July 28/17 - Up 2%.) Still likes it. Balance sheet has strong firepower. Modeling 25% earnings growth. Going higher from here.

She owned Agrium and held onto it when it merged into Nutrien. She thinks prices of potash are low and will rise. She likes their retail presence and their plans to expand this in the US and Australia. This provides a more stable revenue stream. Nutrien is also creating private label products which offer higher margins.

Buy now or in the fall? Not really happy with the marriage, liked them more as independent companies. Good asset distribution around world is bound to grow, well run, good resource potential. Doesn’t know about seasonality. There’s a fly in the ointment regarding tariffs. For example, soybean prices are at 10-year low. Be a little bit cautious now. Anything that affects price of basic food commodities will affect the demand for fertilizer. Yield of 3%.

It turned at $55 and he missed it. They are getting the benefit of capacity that has not come on. There is demand around the world. They are winning. This is an investible company rather than a trade. It is a good core holding. It benefits from the lower Canadian dollar.

Based on the merger of Potash Corp and Agrium. This is a commodity that he feels has upside potential – both potash and fertilizers. Earnings estimates on the street, he feels, are underestimating the potential. Yield 3%. (Analysts’ price target is $74.90)