Canadian Pacific Rail (CP.TO)

CP today increased their offer to buy Kansas City Southern He owns none of the rails here, but owns FedEx and has long liked it and its management. This battle will go on for a while. Even if CP wins, it'll likely be a year before the deal closes, and CP will be worth $90 billion, on par with rival bidder CN. CN will still have bigger revenues than CP, while CP will carry more debt if CP wins the battle. So, CP would win the battle, but lose the war. It'll be interesting to see how much synergy CP can generate if CP wins. The short-term winner will be KCS shareholders.

CN vs. CP Easy. Go with CN. Latest news is a letter saying that the merger with KSU is not in the public interest. If the merger happens, it will be accretive long-term. If not, CN remains attractive, trading at 18x 2023 earnings while growing at 11%. At times, he's a CP guy, but here he'd pick CNR. [Note: some audio problems]

CP vs. CNR Owns CNR. Numbers positive over the last little while, but the KSU acquisition may hamper them going into next year, with the stock moving sideways. Rail industry as a whole is great: limited competition, hard to duplicate, good pricing power, sweet spot of transportation. KSU acquisition will enhance CNR's business. Forest fires are affecting the backlog, but this is short term.

Good time to own all the rails. Supply chain bottlenecks. Developed world is flush with cash, and they're buying stuff. Trades at 23x earnings, on par with peers. Consolation prize from the KSU failed deal, which could come back to shareholders. Good, steady double-digit or high single-digit growth.

Rails are oligopolies, just like pipelines. Rail is the cheapest way to ship a lot of goods. They'll remain solidly profitable. He has no worries about the CN acquisition.

Not the time to buy. It got outmaneuvered with the KSU deal. He's not worried they'll struggle without KSU. He's worried they'll go and do something that makes less sense only to prove that the acquisition path is the right way forward. Wait for 4-6 months. He prefers CN.

Will benefit from the recovery. High barriers to entry. Trading at 18x, the higher end of a 10-year valuation range. More expensive than CNR. First wants to see the outcome of the bidding war for KSU. CP seems to be the best fit, but it's up to KSU.

Share declines are due to its bid for Kansas City Southern. Rating agencies have downgraded CP because CP will take on debt to buy KCS. However, CN has offered a higher bid that KCS prefers. CP's valuation is now more attractive than its American peers. Whether CP wins KCS are not, CP will benefit from the reopening.

Better suited to do the KSU deal than CN. Great things about rail are high barriers to entry, good pricing power, limited by rational competition, good volume growth means better margins and cashflow. Great industry to be in. KSU deal may take a long time, but will help the winner's bottom line. He owns CN instead.

CN vs. CP The transports are close to their highs as volumes are hitting historic highs. He can't choose one over the other until the Kansas City Southern deal is complete. Who will win? IF you hold a position in either, just hold and wait. If you don't own at all, then maybe buy a small position in both. Then after the deal, trim the loser and increase the winner.

CP-T and CNR-T bid on KSU-N. The bidding war for KSU-N. CP-T and CNR-T are locked into a bidding war. CP-T shareholders want CP-T to push this a bit so they can get it. He does not think CNR-T shareholders are as much in favor of the bid. He does not have a horse in the race, but he thinks CP-T will raise their bid a little. CP-T would benefit more with this US exposure, but CNR-T might have more pure synergies. He is watching it play out from the sidelines.