Canadian Pacific Rail (CP.TO) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Canadian Pacific Rail (CP.TO)

133.08

+2.27 (1.74%)

as of Aug 21, 2026, 8:00:00 pm Market Open.

641 watching

Investor Insights

Aug 21, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 25 opinions in the last 12 months.

Experts have mixed opinions on Canadian Pacific Rail (CP-T), with a general outlook leaning towards long-term positivity despite concerns about current economic headwinds and tariff negotiations. The stock has shown resilience, breaking through resistance levels recently, and some analysts expect growth driven by operational efficiencies from the KSU acquisition. However, there are warnings about potential short-term disruptions linked to trade discussions, with several experts noting a freight recession that has affected rail volumes. Valuations reflect the impact of these challenges, leading some to advise caution and recommend waiting for favorable entry points. Overall, while CP's network and strategic position are praised, uncertainty due to external factors like CUSMA negotiations introduces volatility in the near term.

Consensus

Hold

Valuation

Fair Value

Similar

CNR

COMMENT

Owns CN Rail and is happy with the share price recovering lately. The play book has been to invest in railroads facing activist pressure. Feels that there will be big changes in CNR soon. CP is also good. Positive on railroads. Lots of upside potential in CNR.

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BUY

The duopoly in Canada between CNR-T and CP-T: they are both great companies. It is tougher to get truckers. The rails are going to be important for the next couple of decades. There might be some digestion through M&A or there could be earnings beats. It is great for a long term hold.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

CN vs. CP He sold CNR earlier this year over high valuation. Both enjoy an oligopoly. Another concern is growth for both rails. Exit when the PE gets too stretch. Both were so desperate for growth that they battled over KSU. He prefers CP, though both are well run, though both PEs are rich. He'd add to CP on a pullback.

DON'T BUY

CP vs. CN They're in the process of buying KSU, beating out CN last month. CN is the better rail with better assets than CP. Facing an activist shareholder, CN just announced $700 million in cost savings to return to their industry-leading operating ratio. CP's issue is that it has a weaker network, but will be boosted if they absorb KSU. He's not sure it's a slam dunk that CP will win KSU, because the US federal commission may balk. If it does happen, CP will take on a lot of leverage and integration risk that will distract them in their core business that cold let CN take away some of that market share.

HOLD

CP vs. CNR Rail industry is a great area to be in. Limited competition, strong barriers to entry, environmentally friendly, pricing power, got rid of non-core assets. Continue to own them, even on the dips. As the economy gets better, they'll do well. The KSU deal will make CP more competitive with CNR. Two of the best companies in the sector in NA. Own one or both.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jul 27/20, Up 13%) Keep an eye on to buy again in the future. Fires have held up shipping. Numbers likely to come down. Relative price performance has been weak. Cyclicals need to be traded, not held forever. He's waiting for the next quarter, and more water under the bridge for the KSU deal. Great operator. Cautious short-term.

BUY

CP vs. CNR The takeover was a real love triangle. He's confident they'll get approval. You want to buy them into this weakness. 9% growth rate, 17.5x 2023 earnings. Will be a better entity going forward. CNR looks very good with their new strategy to better their OR over time. Both are to be owned at this point.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

He is looking at it, but he owns CNR-T right now. It is under a bit of pressure because of the acquisition. He is looking at buying it on weakness. CP-T will come out of this as a much stronger company.

BUY

With a longer timeline, you'll do well with this. It looks like they'll get away with the KSU merger to create a giant. Multiples are reasonable. The rails reflect the wider economy in coming years, and he expects both to do well. He expects earnings to grow to $5 within 2-3 years. Inevitably, some divestment but also synergy will happen in the merger to come. There may be some headaches in the first few years, but this deal will pay off.

BUY

KSU today announced it will accept CP's bid over CN. The rollercoaster ride at KSU continues. CP has pulled back in valuation. He likes CP. It's a good opportunity to pick up CP now as he expects integration with KSU. It now trades at a discount.

BUY

CN and CP Don't chase CN now. There's a bidding war by CN and CP for KSU. KS is talking to CP and he expects CP to win the war. He prefers CP. He's short CP, because he's long KSU. CP looks good in terms of earnings.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 14/20, Up 46%) Likes rails in general. Transports are an interesting place. For new money, he prefers logistics companies right now. Long-term, rails will continue to be attractive.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

If CP buys KSU or not CP and CN are wonderful businesses, near monopolies. His hunch is regulators won't allow either CN or CP to buy KSU, though the rails are certain. A 50/50 chance the deal will happen. If so, either CP or CN will do well with KSU, making the deal accretive. He doesn't see much risk in the deal. They've done a great job fixing their cost structure, but both rails trade at a rich more-than-20x forward PE.

COMMENT

CP today increased their offer to buy Kansas City Southern He owns none of the rails here, but owns FedEx and has long liked it and its management. This battle will go on for a while. Even if CP wins, it'll likely be a year before the deal closes, and CP will be worth $90 billion, on par with rival bidder CN. CN will still have bigger revenues than CP, while CP will carry more debt if CP wins the battle. So, CP would win the battle, but lose the war. It'll be interesting to see how much synergy CP can generate if CP wins. The short-term winner will be KCS shareholders.

COMMENT

CN vs. CP Easy. Go with CN. Latest news is a letter saying that the merger with KSU is not in the public interest. If the merger happens, it will be accretive long-term. If not, CN remains attractive, trading at 18x 2023 earnings while growing at 11%. At times, he's a CP guy, but here he'd pick CNR. [Note: some audio problems]

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Canadian Pacific Rail (CP.TO)